Two games that ended up being very similar...
*Favorite jumped way ahead in the first half...with Green Bay up 14-0 with even bigger stats, and Pittsburgh up 24-3.
*Favorite relaxes too soon and dog roars back...with Chicago winning the second half 14-7, and the Jets winning 16-0.
*Dog rally fall short and they lose by 5-7 points
*Favorite enjoys the benefit of a defensive touchdown
*Favorite doesn't do much with that because they let the dog score in later stages against a softer defense (you'll see that "stat score" landed close to the final scores even though the winners were given a bonus TD on the real scoreboards).
And, I didn't even mention the very similar weather conditions or field conditions, or the fact that we had four quality, hard hitting defenses on the field.
GREEN BAY 21, CHICAGO 14
Total Yardage: Green Bay 356, Chicago 301
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 5.7, Chicago 4.7
Rushing Yards: Green Bay 120, Chicago 83
Passing Lines: Green Bay 17-30-2-236, Chicago 19-38-3-218
Turnovers: Green Bay 2, Chicago 3
Sloppiness: Green Bay 23, Chicago 34
Third Downs: Green Bay 18%, Chicago 7%
Stat Score: Green Bay 21, Chicago 17
Maybe it's just me...but it seemed like Aaron Rodgers opened the game on fire...but then got banged up worse on his TD run than he wanted to let on. He wasn't nearly as magical after getting blasted to the ground on his score. Crazy to have QB's run anywhere near contact in brutal conditions like this. Of course, he probably expected to get the end zone before contact. Anyway, announcers didn't mention it at the time...but the team moved in fits and starts after that first drive in a way that was at least partly the result of Rodgers being a bit erratic. Two picks, just 2 of 11 on third down conversions. Who knows.
Green Bay was up huge in yardage at the half. Chicago rallied after Jay Cutler went out behind third-teamer Caleb Hanie. Green Bay should have given him a little more respect. Nothing would have been more humiliating than blowing your Super Bowl shot because Caleb Hanie came off the bench to beat you!
PITTSBURGH 24, NY JETS 19
Total Yardage: NY Jets 289, Pittsburgh 287
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.1, Pittsburgh 4.5
Rushing Yards: NY Jets 70, Pittsburgh 166
Passing Lines: NY Jets 20-33-0-219, Pittsburgh 10-19-2-121
Turnovers: NY Jets 1, Pittsburgh 2
Sloppiness: NY Jets 18, Pittsburgh 19
Third Downs: NY Jets 35%, Pittsburgh 54%
Stat Score: NY Jets 16, Pittsburgh 20
Another first half stat rout. The Jets looked too tired to tackle on defense. The offense didn't get their wake up call until the second half. New York rallied to make it a game, and would have had a shot to go for the win if they had been able to force a punt. Pittsburgh was the only team today converting third downs, and they moved the chains when it mattered most.
This will be it for the blog until after the Super Bowl ends. I've been posting a pretty intense article load over at www.hoopdata.com if you're into stat stuff and the NBA. That will continue this week.
Thanks to everyone who visited here throughout the college bowls and NFL playoffs. Last year I did a March Madness stat sequence here in the blog. Not sure if I'll try that again this season. We'll see when it gets here. For now, NBA-centric stuff at hoopdata, which is fun to do...
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Sunday Stats
From Sunday's action...
CHICAGO 35, SEATTLE 24
Total Yardage: Seattle 276, Chicago 437
Yards-Per-Play: Seattle 4.6, Chicago 5.7
Passing Lines: Seattle 26-46-0-242, Chicago 15-29-1-261
Turnovers: Seattle 0, Chicago 1
Sloppiness: Seattle 20, Chicago 19
Third Downs: Seattle 21%, Chicago 56%
Stat Score: Seattle 14, Chicago 27
Stats pretty much tell the story there. The final score is a bit high because Seattle made efficient use of its yardage in garbage time. They were down 28-0 at one point, with not much yardage. Their 24 points against a relative prevent didn't even get them to 300 yards. Think YPP and Third Downs best capture the feel of the game. It was a blowout.
NY JETS 28, NEW ENGLAND 21
Total Yardage: NY Jets 314, New England 372
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.8, New England 4.8
Passing Lines: NY Jets 16-25-0-194, New England 29-45-1-259
Turnovers: NY Jets 0, New England 1
Sloppiness: NY Jets 9, New England 21
Third Downs: NY Jets 46%, New England 35%
Stat Score: NY Jets 19, New England 22
Got weird at the end with the Pats finally moving the ball after they had fallen way behind, then the Jets getting a cheap TD late after the return of the onside kick got them to the red zone. I think YPP and Third Downs best capture the real Jets dominance that was happening through most of the game. Well, that and the lack of sloppiness. But, they weren't running away and hiding with those edges, so the Pats were within striking distance until very late.
Have to say this one stunned me. Not that the Jets won, because upsets happen. But, that the Jets won while winning YPP and third downs. I could have seen a turnover debacle leading to an upset. Or, a surprisingly close game getting decided by special teams or defensive points (that's how the Jets beat the Steelers not too long ago). I didn't expect New England to be worthless most of the day with dinks and dunks that didn't go anywhere. I didn't expect them to keep dinking and dunking the whole game! Obviously the Jets were doing something that took away their other options.
Who'd have thought Bill Belichick would turn into a one-and-done guy like Norv Turner? Pats have lost their first playoff game each of the last two seasons, both at home as favorites. Truly a STUNNING reversal from what we had seen offensively from the Pats in recent weeks. Was that stretch of greatness (that had some pundits calling this one of the best teams of the modern era) all an illusion? Maybe it was just opposition defenses sitting back and saving something for when it matters...against a coach and offense that love piling up the points and TD's when things are going well. As soon as an opposing defense said "Okay, now we're going all out because it's the playoffs," the Patriots offense just disappeared.
Recent YPP's for New England's offense
6.8 at Pittsburgh
5.8 vs. Indianapolis
8.4 at Detroit on Thanksgiving
7.0 vs. NYJ in that MNF game
6.1 at Chicago
5.8 vs. Green Bay
4.8 today vs. NYJ
That's not running up production on patsies. That's posting big numbers vs. quality. Detroit's defense has improved this year. Everyone else made the playoffs. The 6.1 at Chicago came in a blizzard and they called off the dogs some in the second half.
It's worth noting though that the wins over Indianapolis and Green Bay were close, suggesting this was far from a team that was a sure thing for dominance. And, the game before Pittsburgh was a 4.8 at Cleveland, where Eric Mangini's defense did the same thing to Brady that you saw today, but with more takeaways and no garbage time yards allowed.
Was the whole league rope-a-doping New England? Wouldn't go that far. But, it could be true that you don't see the same intensity on opposing defenses in the regular season that you do in the playoffs. Give the Jets credit for making adjustments and turning the Pats back into mortals. Marvel that the Pats had no tricks up their sleeves once it was clear the stagecoach had turned into a pumpkin. You could hear the home crowd murmuring something like "This is the best you've got when trailing in the fourth quarter...ARE YOU KIDDING US?!"
No football until next weekend now. I'm still putting up some NBA notes weekdays at www.hoopdata.com. If you're into pro hoops or stathead stuff in general, hope to see you over there. Next blog will be on the evening of Championship Sunday once Green Bay/Chicago and NY Jets/Pittsburgh have come to an end. Both #1 seeds lost their first games at home. The two #2 seeds host the two #6 seeds next week. Who'da thunk it?
CHICAGO 35, SEATTLE 24
Total Yardage: Seattle 276, Chicago 437
Yards-Per-Play: Seattle 4.6, Chicago 5.7
Passing Lines: Seattle 26-46-0-242, Chicago 15-29-1-261
Turnovers: Seattle 0, Chicago 1
Sloppiness: Seattle 20, Chicago 19
Third Downs: Seattle 21%, Chicago 56%
Stat Score: Seattle 14, Chicago 27
Stats pretty much tell the story there. The final score is a bit high because Seattle made efficient use of its yardage in garbage time. They were down 28-0 at one point, with not much yardage. Their 24 points against a relative prevent didn't even get them to 300 yards. Think YPP and Third Downs best capture the feel of the game. It was a blowout.
NY JETS 28, NEW ENGLAND 21
Total Yardage: NY Jets 314, New England 372
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.8, New England 4.8
Passing Lines: NY Jets 16-25-0-194, New England 29-45-1-259
Turnovers: NY Jets 0, New England 1
Sloppiness: NY Jets 9, New England 21
Third Downs: NY Jets 46%, New England 35%
Stat Score: NY Jets 19, New England 22
Got weird at the end with the Pats finally moving the ball after they had fallen way behind, then the Jets getting a cheap TD late after the return of the onside kick got them to the red zone. I think YPP and Third Downs best capture the real Jets dominance that was happening through most of the game. Well, that and the lack of sloppiness. But, they weren't running away and hiding with those edges, so the Pats were within striking distance until very late.
Have to say this one stunned me. Not that the Jets won, because upsets happen. But, that the Jets won while winning YPP and third downs. I could have seen a turnover debacle leading to an upset. Or, a surprisingly close game getting decided by special teams or defensive points (that's how the Jets beat the Steelers not too long ago). I didn't expect New England to be worthless most of the day with dinks and dunks that didn't go anywhere. I didn't expect them to keep dinking and dunking the whole game! Obviously the Jets were doing something that took away their other options.
Who'd have thought Bill Belichick would turn into a one-and-done guy like Norv Turner? Pats have lost their first playoff game each of the last two seasons, both at home as favorites. Truly a STUNNING reversal from what we had seen offensively from the Pats in recent weeks. Was that stretch of greatness (that had some pundits calling this one of the best teams of the modern era) all an illusion? Maybe it was just opposition defenses sitting back and saving something for when it matters...against a coach and offense that love piling up the points and TD's when things are going well. As soon as an opposing defense said "Okay, now we're going all out because it's the playoffs," the Patriots offense just disappeared.
Recent YPP's for New England's offense
6.8 at Pittsburgh
5.8 vs. Indianapolis
8.4 at Detroit on Thanksgiving
7.0 vs. NYJ in that MNF game
6.1 at Chicago
5.8 vs. Green Bay
4.8 today vs. NYJ
That's not running up production on patsies. That's posting big numbers vs. quality. Detroit's defense has improved this year. Everyone else made the playoffs. The 6.1 at Chicago came in a blizzard and they called off the dogs some in the second half.
It's worth noting though that the wins over Indianapolis and Green Bay were close, suggesting this was far from a team that was a sure thing for dominance. And, the game before Pittsburgh was a 4.8 at Cleveland, where Eric Mangini's defense did the same thing to Brady that you saw today, but with more takeaways and no garbage time yards allowed.
Was the whole league rope-a-doping New England? Wouldn't go that far. But, it could be true that you don't see the same intensity on opposing defenses in the regular season that you do in the playoffs. Give the Jets credit for making adjustments and turning the Pats back into mortals. Marvel that the Pats had no tricks up their sleeves once it was clear the stagecoach had turned into a pumpkin. You could hear the home crowd murmuring something like "This is the best you've got when trailing in the fourth quarter...ARE YOU KIDDING US?!"
No football until next weekend now. I'm still putting up some NBA notes weekdays at www.hoopdata.com. If you're into pro hoops or stathead stuff in general, hope to see you over there. Next blog will be on the evening of Championship Sunday once Green Bay/Chicago and NY Jets/Pittsburgh have come to an end. Both #1 seeds lost their first games at home. The two #2 seeds host the two #6 seeds next week. Who'da thunk it?
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Green Bay Obliterates Atlanta
Not much to add to the numbers, because the numbers explain the destruction pretty well.
GREEN BAY 48, ATLANTA 21
Total Yardage: Green Bay 442, Atlanta 194
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 6.4, Atlanta 4.0
Passing Lines: Green Bay 31-36-0-346, Atlanta 20-29-2-149
Turnovers: Green Bay 1, Atlanta 4
Sloppiness: Green Bay 9, Atlanta 29
Third Downs: Green Bay 67%, Atlanta 30%
Stat Score: Green Bay 24, Atlanta 11
Best descriptive stat is the 31-36-0-346 from Aaron Rodgers. Huge volume with incredible sharpness. Imagine if he played all of his games in a dome!
Stat score showed +13 points for Green Bay. Turnovers are usually worth four each, so that's +12 more in scoreboard differential. Overall, +25 in a game they won by 27. Didn't do that in the earlier game (which you may have read about already). Pittsburgh was +8 in stat score, +4 more with an extra turnover. That should be +12. But, Baltimore did have a defensive TD while Pittsburgh didn't...which would bring it back closer to the actual final score.
Will probably wait until Sunday evening to do both games at one time. See you Sunday Night...
GREEN BAY 48, ATLANTA 21
Total Yardage: Green Bay 442, Atlanta 194
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 6.4, Atlanta 4.0
Passing Lines: Green Bay 31-36-0-346, Atlanta 20-29-2-149
Turnovers: Green Bay 1, Atlanta 4
Sloppiness: Green Bay 9, Atlanta 29
Third Downs: Green Bay 67%, Atlanta 30%
Stat Score: Green Bay 24, Atlanta 11
Best descriptive stat is the 31-36-0-346 from Aaron Rodgers. Huge volume with incredible sharpness. Imagine if he played all of his games in a dome!
Stat score showed +13 points for Green Bay. Turnovers are usually worth four each, so that's +12 more in scoreboard differential. Overall, +25 in a game they won by 27. Didn't do that in the earlier game (which you may have read about already). Pittsburgh was +8 in stat score, +4 more with an extra turnover. That should be +12. But, Baltimore did have a defensive TD while Pittsburgh didn't...which would bring it back closer to the actual final score.
Will probably wait until Sunday evening to do both games at one time. See you Sunday Night...
What a Misleading Final Score?!
Pittsburgh just defeated Baltimore 31-24, in a game that should have ended 15-7!
It was amazing to see. Baltimore jumped ahead 21-7 in the first half thanks to a real touchdown...and two gifts. This was reminiscent of last year's Baltimore/New England playoff game when Baltimore was ahead 24-0 in the first quarter thanks to a real touchdown and three gifts. All they had to do was not turn the ball over in the second half, and their defense would likely be able to protect that lead (in what would have been a replay of Baltimore/NE last year...back when the Patriots weren't very good by playoff standards).
BAM! Fumble
BAM! Ridiculously horrible interception by Flacco
BAM! Fumble when the center snapped the ball into his own leg
The gifts had been returned like it was the week after Christmas...and suddenly Pittsburgh was seemingly in command.
REVERSE BAM! Baltimore returns a punt for a TD to take the lead, but a hold near the end of the run kept them off the board. They settled for a field goal on their third very short scoring drive of the day.
(Why all the BAMS? I was watching some of the Green Hornet TV marathon on SyFy the other day, and it reminded me of the time the Green Hornet stars did a cameo on Batman...and Bruce Ward was terrified of Bruce Lee)
We're at 24-24...and then Big Ben completes a monster bomb to set up the go-ahead score for the Steelers. Pittsburgh should have won by about a TD, and they did. The statbox below shows you how out of synch the 31-24 final score was with the actual production.
PITTSBURGH 31, BALTIMORE 24
Total Yardage: Baltimore 126, Pittsburgh 263
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 2.4, Pittsburgh 3.8
Passing Lines: Baltimore 16-30-1-91, Pittsburgh 19-32-0-192
Turnovers: Baltimore 3, Pittsburgh 2
Sloppiness: Baltimore 29, Pittsburgh 23
Third Downs: Baltimore 42%, Pittsburgh 50%
Stat Score: Baltimore 7, Pittsburgh 15
Amazing. Only 126 total yards for the Ravens, on 2.4 yards-per-play. And, they almost won! Pittsburgh had what would have been a disappointing game if not for the bomb. That blew up their YPP to 3.8!
Stat score is 15-7 for the Steelers, which would be normal for a defensive struggle in a blizzard with the quarterbacks wearing eye patches. If you're new to the blog, the formula for that is 2 times rushing yards...plus 1 times passing yards...times 0.67...divided by 15. It's an estimate of what the score "should" have been with that level of production (or non-production in this case).
Sloppiness is something you want to avoid. Neither team did that here. It's five times giveaways...plus the number of incomplete passes. The higher the number, the worse your performance. The only worse sloppiness thus far in the playoffs was what Kansas City did against Baltimore last week.
Interesting:
KC gained 161 yards with a sloppiness of 34 last week
Baltimore gained 126 yards with a sloppiness of 29 tonight
Kansas City's performance was seen as one of the jokes of the decade. Baltimore basically did the same thing here...but the cheap points off early Pittsburgh screw-ups helped hide that.
Maybe both teams were afraid of playing the Patriots!
Obviously you have to give credit to the defenses for forcing all the turnovers. But...given the experience of the QB's...and the understanding that they HAD to protect the ball as a top priority, it was odd to see all the miscues that happened deep in each team's territory. Tough luck if you had the Under. A miracle win for you if you were rooting for the Over.
See you probably about an hour after Green Bay/Atlanta ends...
It was amazing to see. Baltimore jumped ahead 21-7 in the first half thanks to a real touchdown...and two gifts. This was reminiscent of last year's Baltimore/New England playoff game when Baltimore was ahead 24-0 in the first quarter thanks to a real touchdown and three gifts. All they had to do was not turn the ball over in the second half, and their defense would likely be able to protect that lead (in what would have been a replay of Baltimore/NE last year...back when the Patriots weren't very good by playoff standards).
BAM! Fumble
BAM! Ridiculously horrible interception by Flacco
BAM! Fumble when the center snapped the ball into his own leg
The gifts had been returned like it was the week after Christmas...and suddenly Pittsburgh was seemingly in command.
REVERSE BAM! Baltimore returns a punt for a TD to take the lead, but a hold near the end of the run kept them off the board. They settled for a field goal on their third very short scoring drive of the day.
(Why all the BAMS? I was watching some of the Green Hornet TV marathon on SyFy the other day, and it reminded me of the time the Green Hornet stars did a cameo on Batman...and Bruce Ward was terrified of Bruce Lee)
We're at 24-24...and then Big Ben completes a monster bomb to set up the go-ahead score for the Steelers. Pittsburgh should have won by about a TD, and they did. The statbox below shows you how out of synch the 31-24 final score was with the actual production.
PITTSBURGH 31, BALTIMORE 24
Total Yardage: Baltimore 126, Pittsburgh 263
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 2.4, Pittsburgh 3.8
Passing Lines: Baltimore 16-30-1-91, Pittsburgh 19-32-0-192
Turnovers: Baltimore 3, Pittsburgh 2
Sloppiness: Baltimore 29, Pittsburgh 23
Third Downs: Baltimore 42%, Pittsburgh 50%
Stat Score: Baltimore 7, Pittsburgh 15
Amazing. Only 126 total yards for the Ravens, on 2.4 yards-per-play. And, they almost won! Pittsburgh had what would have been a disappointing game if not for the bomb. That blew up their YPP to 3.8!
Stat score is 15-7 for the Steelers, which would be normal for a defensive struggle in a blizzard with the quarterbacks wearing eye patches. If you're new to the blog, the formula for that is 2 times rushing yards...plus 1 times passing yards...times 0.67...divided by 15. It's an estimate of what the score "should" have been with that level of production (or non-production in this case).
Sloppiness is something you want to avoid. Neither team did that here. It's five times giveaways...plus the number of incomplete passes. The higher the number, the worse your performance. The only worse sloppiness thus far in the playoffs was what Kansas City did against Baltimore last week.
Interesting:
KC gained 161 yards with a sloppiness of 34 last week
Baltimore gained 126 yards with a sloppiness of 29 tonight
Kansas City's performance was seen as one of the jokes of the decade. Baltimore basically did the same thing here...but the cheap points off early Pittsburgh screw-ups helped hide that.
Maybe both teams were afraid of playing the Patriots!
Obviously you have to give credit to the defenses for forcing all the turnovers. But...given the experience of the QB's...and the understanding that they HAD to protect the ball as a top priority, it was odd to see all the miscues that happened deep in each team's territory. Tough luck if you had the Under. A miracle win for you if you were rooting for the Over.
See you probably about an hour after Green Bay/Atlanta ends...
Monday, January 10, 2011
Disappointing BCS Finale
I really thought there'd be a lot to write about here. Who likes writing about PUNTS?!
You may be surprised at the yardage totals. The teams did produce a lot of yardage, but each failed to convert on fourth and goals from the one. Then, Auburn died at the one before kicking their game winning field goal. Wish we could have watched the game that these stats hinted at:
AUBURN 22, OREGON 19
Total Yardage: Auburn 520, Oregon 455
Yards-Per-Play: Auburn 6.1, Oregon 6.1
Rushing Yards: Auburn 255, Oregon 81
Passing Lines: Auburn 20-35-1-265, Oregon 28-41-2-374
Turnovers: Auburn 2, Oregon 2
Sloppiness: Auburn 25, Oregon 23
Third Downs: Auburn 53%, Oregon 33%
Stat Score: Auburn 35, Oregon 24
Auburn wins stat score huge because of that rushing edge (two times rushing yards...plus passing yards...times 0.67...divided by 15). You can see how it paid off in third down conversions too. But, they couldn't create a turnover edge with their superior ground game...and, in fact, blew their late lead because of a quarterback fumble.
Did it feel like you were watching a game featuring 520 yards vs. 455 yards?
Disappointed that the turf was so slick. I think that really hurt Oregon's chances a lot because they rely so much on speed and creativity. Auburn relies on speed and power. Once it was clear the turf was slick...speed and creativity had to tip-toe...and power ruled the night. That's more clear in stat score than on the scoreboard I think.
No football now until Saturday. I'll be back then to pick up with boxscore notes from the playoffs. If you're into NBA numbers, I'll be posting a few articles this week at www.hoopdata.com.
You may be surprised at the yardage totals. The teams did produce a lot of yardage, but each failed to convert on fourth and goals from the one. Then, Auburn died at the one before kicking their game winning field goal. Wish we could have watched the game that these stats hinted at:
AUBURN 22, OREGON 19
Total Yardage: Auburn 520, Oregon 455
Yards-Per-Play: Auburn 6.1, Oregon 6.1
Rushing Yards: Auburn 255, Oregon 81
Passing Lines: Auburn 20-35-1-265, Oregon 28-41-2-374
Turnovers: Auburn 2, Oregon 2
Sloppiness: Auburn 25, Oregon 23
Third Downs: Auburn 53%, Oregon 33%
Stat Score: Auburn 35, Oregon 24
Auburn wins stat score huge because of that rushing edge (two times rushing yards...plus passing yards...times 0.67...divided by 15). You can see how it paid off in third down conversions too. But, they couldn't create a turnover edge with their superior ground game...and, in fact, blew their late lead because of a quarterback fumble.
Did it feel like you were watching a game featuring 520 yards vs. 455 yards?
Disappointed that the turf was so slick. I think that really hurt Oregon's chances a lot because they rely so much on speed and creativity. Auburn relies on speed and power. Once it was clear the turf was slick...speed and creativity had to tip-toe...and power ruled the night. That's more clear in stat score than on the scoreboard I think.
No football now until Saturday. I'll be back then to pick up with boxscore notes from the playoffs. If you're into NBA numbers, I'll be posting a few articles this week at www.hoopdata.com.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Sunday Wildcard Numbers
The stat boxes from Sunday's Wildcard games...
BALTIMORE 30, KANSAS CITY 7
Total Yardage: Baltimore 390, Kansas City 161
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.0, Kansas City 4.0
Passing Lines: Baltimore 25-34-0-248, Kansas City 9-18-3-53
Turnovers: Baltimore 2, Kansas City 5
Sloppiness: Baltimore 19, Kansas City 34
Third Downs: Baltimore 52%, Kansas City 12%
Stat Score: Baltimore 24, Kansas City 12
What a squash! It wasn't quite this bad the whole game. Baltimore was moving well by throwing to Todd Heap (Kansas City seemed to have everything accounted for except Heap and Flacco running...so Baltimore was happy to throw to Heap and let Flacco scramble every so often)...but they weren't doing much scoreboard damage. KC led 7-3 late in the first half...and lost from that point forward 27-0.
KC's offense kept turning the ball over. KC's defense lost its spirit after a while...and you see the results.
Stat score made it Baltimore by 12. Plus three turnovers is 12 more points because turnovers are usually worth about four points each. That's Baltimore by 24, in a game they won by 23. Amazing how stat relationships stay so standard over time, even with evolutionary ticks in the game.
Baltimore plays Pittsburgh next week. Pittsburgh will probably have something planned for Heap and Flacco scrambles...meaning the Ravens wont' score more than 13 points unless they come up with something a bit more creative. Vanilla only works for so long.
GREEN BAY 21, PHILADELPHIA 16
Total Yardage: Green Bay 309, Philadelphia 352
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 5.1, Philadelphia 5.9
Passing Lines: Green Bay 18-27-0-171, Philadelphia 20-36-1-270
Turnovers: Green Bay 2, Philadelphia 1
Sloppiness: Green Bay 19, Philadelphia 21
Third Downs: Green Bay 61%, Philadelphia 38%
Stat Score: Green Bay 20, Philadelphia 19
The Packers almost let it get away. They were up 21-10, and had contained the Eagles for the most part. They were lucky that 21 turned out to be enough. Philly missed two field goals and threw an interception in the end zone in the final minute. Nice game from the Packers...but they can't just cross their fingers with a lead the next two weeks and hope they'll wind up in the Super Bowl. They got conservative two possessions too early...and it almost blew up in their face.
Philly won YPP, but the missed FG's negated that. Plus, passing yardage can have some air in it. Green Bay won stat score by one. Normally GB's -1 turnover differential would have flipped that to Philly by 3. But...the two missed FG's by the Eagles flipped it right back!
The NFC still feels like a "name out of a hat" year. Green Bay definitely still deserves to be in the hat. They visit Atlanta next week. Seattle doesn't, but is in there anyway as they head to frigid Chicago. Philadelphia has another playoff disappointment to ponder. And, they also have to wonder if Vick can ever stay healthy enough to string together wins in big games. He's going to keep running into injuries. Announcers didn't mention it I think...but after turning has ankle on the failed two-point try...that final doomed pass was underthrown...which happens on bum ankles. You commit to Vick...and you're basically committing to 4-5 really great performances...2-3 missed games (maybe more)...then hoping he doesn't sprain something in the playoffs. A bigger gamble than people realize I think.
Back very late Monday Night after Auburn-Oregon...
BALTIMORE 30, KANSAS CITY 7
Total Yardage: Baltimore 390, Kansas City 161
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.0, Kansas City 4.0
Passing Lines: Baltimore 25-34-0-248, Kansas City 9-18-3-53
Turnovers: Baltimore 2, Kansas City 5
Sloppiness: Baltimore 19, Kansas City 34
Third Downs: Baltimore 52%, Kansas City 12%
Stat Score: Baltimore 24, Kansas City 12
What a squash! It wasn't quite this bad the whole game. Baltimore was moving well by throwing to Todd Heap (Kansas City seemed to have everything accounted for except Heap and Flacco running...so Baltimore was happy to throw to Heap and let Flacco scramble every so often)...but they weren't doing much scoreboard damage. KC led 7-3 late in the first half...and lost from that point forward 27-0.
KC's offense kept turning the ball over. KC's defense lost its spirit after a while...and you see the results.
Stat score made it Baltimore by 12. Plus three turnovers is 12 more points because turnovers are usually worth about four points each. That's Baltimore by 24, in a game they won by 23. Amazing how stat relationships stay so standard over time, even with evolutionary ticks in the game.
Baltimore plays Pittsburgh next week. Pittsburgh will probably have something planned for Heap and Flacco scrambles...meaning the Ravens wont' score more than 13 points unless they come up with something a bit more creative. Vanilla only works for so long.
GREEN BAY 21, PHILADELPHIA 16
Total Yardage: Green Bay 309, Philadelphia 352
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 5.1, Philadelphia 5.9
Passing Lines: Green Bay 18-27-0-171, Philadelphia 20-36-1-270
Turnovers: Green Bay 2, Philadelphia 1
Sloppiness: Green Bay 19, Philadelphia 21
Third Downs: Green Bay 61%, Philadelphia 38%
Stat Score: Green Bay 20, Philadelphia 19
The Packers almost let it get away. They were up 21-10, and had contained the Eagles for the most part. They were lucky that 21 turned out to be enough. Philly missed two field goals and threw an interception in the end zone in the final minute. Nice game from the Packers...but they can't just cross their fingers with a lead the next two weeks and hope they'll wind up in the Super Bowl. They got conservative two possessions too early...and it almost blew up in their face.
Philly won YPP, but the missed FG's negated that. Plus, passing yardage can have some air in it. Green Bay won stat score by one. Normally GB's -1 turnover differential would have flipped that to Philly by 3. But...the two missed FG's by the Eagles flipped it right back!
The NFC still feels like a "name out of a hat" year. Green Bay definitely still deserves to be in the hat. They visit Atlanta next week. Seattle doesn't, but is in there anyway as they head to frigid Chicago. Philadelphia has another playoff disappointment to ponder. And, they also have to wonder if Vick can ever stay healthy enough to string together wins in big games. He's going to keep running into injuries. Announcers didn't mention it I think...but after turning has ankle on the failed two-point try...that final doomed pass was underthrown...which happens on bum ankles. You commit to Vick...and you're basically committing to 4-5 really great performances...2-3 missed games (maybe more)...then hoping he doesn't sprain something in the playoffs. A bigger gamble than people realize I think.
Back very late Monday Night after Auburn-Oregon...
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Dogs Pull Playoff Upsets on Saturday
Seattle and the NY Jets advance to next week's Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs despite entering the day as underdogs. Seattle was given little shot to knock off the Saints...though we hope it was less of a surpripse than it might have been had you not been monitoring New Orleans' weak strength of schedule all season in the Funhouse Mirror League. Of coure, Seattle was in that league too! Seattle found a healthy quarterback just as New Orleans was losing healthy running backs. And, the Saints just weren't ever as good as the "momentum" types were hoping down the stretch.
SEATTLE 41, NEW ORLEANS 36
Total Yardage: New Orleans 474, Seattle 415
Yards-Per-Play: New Orleans 5.7, Seattle 6.8
Passing Lines: New Orleans 39-60-0-397, Seattle 22-35-1-266
Turnovers: New Orleans 1, Seattle 1
Sloppiness: New Orleans 26, Seattle 17
Third Downs: New Orleans 46%, Seattle 42%
Stat Score: New Orleans 25, Seattle 25
Stat Score has a lower scoring dead heat. Neither defense could do much to stop the other side. That's a massive YPP for Seattle's previously struggling offense. New Orleans had to settle for a couple of field goals or we might have seen both teams make a run at 45 or so. Didn't really feel like a playoff game. Heck, neither game today did to me and Mrs. Blog (she felt both the Jets and Colts were too conservative, and the winner would be in trouble next week, which allowed me the freedom to make dinner). Felt like more like a bowl game involving somebody from the Sun Belt or CUSA. 95 combined passes! Hawaii/Tulsa had 88.
Seattle won't know who they play next week until tomorrow. Would be cool if they could do an Arizona-redux...with an NFC West team getting their veteran QB healthy just in time to wreak havoc in the brackets (as we saw two years ago). Don't think Hasselbeck is quite the same as Kurt Warner. But, he played that way today so you never know.
NY JETS 17, INDIANAPOLIS 16
Total Yardage: NY Jets 353, Indianapolis 312
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.0, Indianapolis 5.8
Passing Lines: NY Jets 18-31-1-184, Indianapolis 18-26-0-219
Turnovers: NY Jets 1, Indianapolis 0
Sloppiness: NY Jets 18, Indianapolis 8
Third Downs: NY Jets 53%, Indianapolis 46%
Stat Score: NY Jets 23, Indianapolis 18
Stat score says the right team won and covered. If turnovers are worth four points, that 1-0 deficit took four points off the board and turned 23-18 into 19-18, which is pretty darned close to 17-16. That makes sense since the turnover was an intereption near the goal line when the Jets were about to score. The Colts won YPP, but the Jets won rushing yardage 169-93, and third downs. Basically toss up stats in a toss-up game. The winner was going to be in trouble next week vs. Pittsburgh or New England. The Jets get New England, with little evidence right now that they're significantly better than when they got drilled 45-3 on that field awhile back. Sanchez wasn't sharp in perfect conditions tonight.
Both were compelling games of course. In terms of entertainment, it was a fun 6 hours to watch. In terms of influencing the championship picture...all you can say is that one of the NFC bye teams may have drawn a virtual second bye unless Seattle keeps this going on the road next week...and nobody on the field today looked ready to run the table. Maybe you could make the case that the Jets could string together coin flip type games and catch a month of breaks.
Last year's Super Bowl teams will be home with the rest of us watching Sunday's games...and the remainder of the postseason. See you Sunday Night...
SEATTLE 41, NEW ORLEANS 36
Total Yardage: New Orleans 474, Seattle 415
Yards-Per-Play: New Orleans 5.7, Seattle 6.8
Passing Lines: New Orleans 39-60-0-397, Seattle 22-35-1-266
Turnovers: New Orleans 1, Seattle 1
Sloppiness: New Orleans 26, Seattle 17
Third Downs: New Orleans 46%, Seattle 42%
Stat Score: New Orleans 25, Seattle 25
Stat Score has a lower scoring dead heat. Neither defense could do much to stop the other side. That's a massive YPP for Seattle's previously struggling offense. New Orleans had to settle for a couple of field goals or we might have seen both teams make a run at 45 or so. Didn't really feel like a playoff game. Heck, neither game today did to me and Mrs. Blog (she felt both the Jets and Colts were too conservative, and the winner would be in trouble next week, which allowed me the freedom to make dinner). Felt like more like a bowl game involving somebody from the Sun Belt or CUSA. 95 combined passes! Hawaii/Tulsa had 88.
Seattle won't know who they play next week until tomorrow. Would be cool if they could do an Arizona-redux...with an NFC West team getting their veteran QB healthy just in time to wreak havoc in the brackets (as we saw two years ago). Don't think Hasselbeck is quite the same as Kurt Warner. But, he played that way today so you never know.
NY JETS 17, INDIANAPOLIS 16
Total Yardage: NY Jets 353, Indianapolis 312
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.0, Indianapolis 5.8
Passing Lines: NY Jets 18-31-1-184, Indianapolis 18-26-0-219
Turnovers: NY Jets 1, Indianapolis 0
Sloppiness: NY Jets 18, Indianapolis 8
Third Downs: NY Jets 53%, Indianapolis 46%
Stat Score: NY Jets 23, Indianapolis 18
Stat score says the right team won and covered. If turnovers are worth four points, that 1-0 deficit took four points off the board and turned 23-18 into 19-18, which is pretty darned close to 17-16. That makes sense since the turnover was an intereption near the goal line when the Jets were about to score. The Colts won YPP, but the Jets won rushing yardage 169-93, and third downs. Basically toss up stats in a toss-up game. The winner was going to be in trouble next week vs. Pittsburgh or New England. The Jets get New England, with little evidence right now that they're significantly better than when they got drilled 45-3 on that field awhile back. Sanchez wasn't sharp in perfect conditions tonight.
Both were compelling games of course. In terms of entertainment, it was a fun 6 hours to watch. In terms of influencing the championship picture...all you can say is that one of the NFC bye teams may have drawn a virtual second bye unless Seattle keeps this going on the road next week...and nobody on the field today looked ready to run the table. Maybe you could make the case that the Jets could string together coin flip type games and catch a month of breaks.
Last year's Super Bowl teams will be home with the rest of us watching Sunday's games...and the remainder of the postseason. See you Sunday Night...
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