Saturday, January 1, 2011

New Year's Stats

At some point I'll have a rant about the Big 10 using its powerbroker status to get five teams playing on New Year's...only to see those teams go 0-5. Take about half of that energy you're using to complain about why there isn't a playoff...and use it to complain that a conference that HASN'T been the best in the nation for eons is still treated that way by the men with money. Illinois and Iowa showed off the strengths of the league vs. soft defenses. Five teams showed off the weaknesses of the league today.

TEXAS TECH 45, NORTHWESTERN 38
Total Yardage: Northwestern 375, Texas Tech 552
Yards-Per-Play: Northwestern 4.7, Texas Tech 6.3
Rushing Yards: Northwestern 229, Texas Tech 183
Passing Lines: Northwestern 14-30-1-146, Texas Tech 43-56-1-369
Turnovers: Northwestern 1, Texas Tech 2
Sloppiness: Northwestern 19, Texas Tech 23
Stat Score: Northwestern 27, Texas Tech 33

I had to play Mr. Mom, Mr. Dad, Mr. Take Down the Xmas Tree, Mr. Chauffer, and Mr. Write 4,000 Words For Your Employer at various times today, so I'll save the commentary on all the games for another occasion. NW did cover with a pick six in the fourth quarter. But, they had the raw stats to hang within the number anyway based on stat score (2 times rushing yardage, plus passing yardage, times 0.65, divided by 15). If a team passes the ball 56 times, they're probably going to have turnovers...and those turnovers often set up cheap points. If you're backing Tech in a game like this, you're asking for perfection over 50+ passes.

FLORIDA 37, PENN STATE 24
Total Yardage: Florida 279, Penn State 350
Yards-Per-Play: Florida 3.9, Penn State 4.5
Rushing Yards: Florida 178, Penn State 139
Passing Lines: Florida 14-27-1-101, Penn State 17-41-5-211
Turnovers: Florida 2, Penn State 5
Sloppiness: Florida 23, Penn State 49
Stat Score: Florida 20, Penn State 22

Florida covered with a pick six in the final minute, which was much more of a hosejob. Favorite players go 1-1 with the hosejobs, as do dog players. My condolences to those of you who got it worse than that with these two games. Horrible turnover game for Penn State who was forced out of their comfort zone against a faster team. As often happened this year, Florida won with its defense because its offense just can't do that much. Ugly numbers for Florida going down the line (bad YPP, bad sloppiness for a conservative game plan). For you newcomers, sloppiness is 5 times giveaways...plus the number of uncompleted passes. Penn State's 49 was the worst of the day by a mile.

ALABAMA 49, MICHIGAN STATE 7
Total Yardage: Alabama 546, Michigan State 171
Yards-Per-Play: Alabama 8.1, Michigan State 3.0
Rushing Yards: Alabama 275, Michigan State -48
Passing Lines: Alabama 19-23-0-271, Michigan State 14-29-1-219
Turnovers: Alabama 0, Michigan State 1
Sloppiness: Alabama 4, Michigan State 20
Stat Score: Alabama 37, Michigan State 5

This put any "the SEC is falling back to earth" or "the Big Ten is catching up with the SEC" talk back on the shelf. Michigan State was a co-champ of the Big Ten. Alabama lost to Auburn, LSU, and South Carolina. This was an annihilation. Alabama gained almost 550 yards with a sloppiness score of 4 on a neutral field. Reminiscent of Florida over Cincinnati last year in terms of men vs. boys.

MISSISSIPPI STATE 52, MICHIGAN 14
Total Yardage: Miss. State 491, Michigan 341
Yards-Per-Play: Miss. State 6.1, Michigan 5.2
Rushing Yards: Miss. State 210, Michigan 85
Passing Lines: Miss. State 18-23-1-281, Michigan 27-41-1-256
Turnovers: Miss. State 1, Michigan 2
Sloppiness: Miss. State 10, Michigan 24
Stat Score: Miss. State 31, Michigan 19

The latest data point in the "Urban Meyer was getting all the success for what Dan Mullen was doing over the years...and then what Mullen and Tebow were doing lately" line of thinking. Florida's offense has stopped without Mullen and Tebow. Mississippi State's ignited under Mullen's guidance. Sure, they were playing Michigan's horrible defense. But, 52 on the scoreboard is a nice day at the park. Not as brutal for the Big Ten as Alabama/Michigan State because Michigan wasn't a co-champion...and everyone knows they can't tackle.

TCU 21, WISCONSIN 19
Total Yardage: Wisconsin 385, TCU 301
Yards-Per-Play: Wisconsin 5.7, TCU 6.1
Rushing Yards: Wisconsin 226, TCU 82
Passing Lines: Wisconsin 12-21-0-159, TCU 15-23-0-219
Turnovers: Wisconsin 0, TCU 0
Sloppiness: Wisconsin 9, TCU 8
Stat Score: Wisconsin 27, TCU 17

Time of possession messed up some of the math here. Wisconsin had the ball for 36.5 minutes, TCU just 23.5. You see that TCU won YPP. If they both had the ball 30 minutes, TCU would have won total yardage 384-316, roughly reversing the numbers in the boxscore. So, the stat score isn't exactly right. But, with that big rushing edge, Wisconsin probably should have won a field goal type game rather than TCU. Credit to TCU for producing when they had a chance. Wisconsin fell just short. Sympathies to Dan Flaherty and the rest of Badger Nation. No shame for Wisconites that they're from the second best state in the nation...

Yes, TCU is the new UT until further notice. With about 40,000 fewer students.

Back after UCONN/Oklahoma ends to run those numbers and wrap up the day...

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