Saturday, January 15, 2011

What a Misleading Final Score?!

Pittsburgh just defeated Baltimore 31-24, in a game that should have ended 15-7!

It was amazing to see. Baltimore jumped ahead 21-7 in the first half thanks to a real touchdown...and two gifts. This was reminiscent of last year's Baltimore/New England playoff game when Baltimore was ahead 24-0 in the first quarter thanks to a real touchdown and three gifts. All they had to do was not turn the ball over in the second half, and their defense would likely be able to protect that lead (in what would have been a replay of Baltimore/NE last year...back when the Patriots weren't very good by playoff standards).

BAM! Fumble
BAM! Ridiculously horrible interception by Flacco
BAM! Fumble when the center snapped the ball into his own leg

The gifts had been returned like it was the week after Christmas...and suddenly Pittsburgh was seemingly in command.

REVERSE BAM! Baltimore returns a punt for a TD to take the lead, but a hold near the end of the run kept them off the board. They settled for a field goal on their third very short scoring drive of the day.

(Why all the BAMS? I was watching some of the Green Hornet TV marathon on SyFy the other day, and it reminded me of the time the Green Hornet stars did a cameo on Batman...and Bruce Ward was terrified of Bruce Lee)

We're at 24-24...and then Big Ben completes a monster bomb to set up the go-ahead score for the Steelers. Pittsburgh should have won by about a TD, and they did. The statbox below shows you how out of synch the 31-24 final score was with the actual production.

PITTSBURGH 31, BALTIMORE 24
Total Yardage: Baltimore 126, Pittsburgh 263
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 2.4, Pittsburgh 3.8
Passing Lines: Baltimore 16-30-1-91, Pittsburgh 19-32-0-192
Turnovers: Baltimore 3, Pittsburgh 2
Sloppiness: Baltimore 29, Pittsburgh 23
Third Downs: Baltimore 42%, Pittsburgh 50%
Stat Score: Baltimore 7, Pittsburgh 15

Amazing. Only 126 total yards for the Ravens, on 2.4 yards-per-play. And, they almost won! Pittsburgh had what would have been a disappointing game if not for the bomb. That blew up their YPP to 3.8!

Stat score is 15-7 for the Steelers, which would be normal for a defensive struggle in a blizzard with the quarterbacks wearing eye patches. If you're new to the blog, the formula for that is 2 times rushing yards...plus 1 times passing yards...times 0.67...divided by 15. It's an estimate of what the score "should" have been with that level of production (or non-production in this case).

Sloppiness is something you want to avoid. Neither team did that here. It's five times giveaways...plus the number of incomplete passes. The higher the number, the worse your performance. The only worse sloppiness thus far in the playoffs was what Kansas City did against Baltimore last week.

Interesting:
KC gained 161 yards with a sloppiness of 34 last week
Baltimore gained 126 yards with a sloppiness of 29 tonight

Kansas City's performance was seen as one of the jokes of the decade. Baltimore basically did the same thing here...but the cheap points off early Pittsburgh screw-ups helped hide that.

Maybe both teams were afraid of playing the Patriots!

Obviously you have to give credit to the defenses for forcing all the turnovers. But...given the experience of the QB's...and the understanding that they HAD to protect the ball as a top priority, it was odd to see all the miscues that happened deep in each team's territory. Tough luck if you had the Under. A miracle win for you if you were rooting for the Over.

See you probably about an hour after Green Bay/Atlanta ends...

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