Stat Intelligence

Championship Sunday Stats

2011-01-23T21:39:00.002-06:00

Two games that ended up being very similar...

*Favorite jumped way ahead in the first half...with Green Bay up 14-0 with even bigger stats, and Pittsburgh up 24-3.

*Favorite relaxes too soon and dog roars back...with Chicago winning the second half 14-7, and the Jets winning 16-0.

*Dog rally fall short and they lose by 5-7 points

*Favorite enjoys the benefit of a defensive touchdown

*Favorite doesn't do much with that because they let the dog score in later stages against a softer defense (you'll see that "stat score" landed close to the final scores even though the winners were given a bonus TD on the real scoreboards).

And, I didn't even mention the very similar weather conditions or field conditions, or the fact that we had four quality, hard hitting defenses on the field.

GREEN BAY 21, CHICAGO 14
Total Yardage: Green Bay 356, Chicago 301
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 5.7, Chicago 4.7
Rushing Yards: Green Bay 120, Chicago 83
Passing Lines: Green Bay 17-30-2-236, Chicago 19-38-3-218
Turnovers: Green Bay 2, Chicago 3
Sloppiness: Green Bay 23, Chicago 34
Third Downs: Green Bay 18%, Chicago 7%
Stat Score: Green Bay 21, Chicago 17

Maybe it's just me...but it seemed like Aaron Rodgers opened the game on fire...but then got banged up worse on his TD run than he wanted to let on. He wasn't nearly as magical after getting blasted to the ground on his score. Crazy to have QB's run anywhere near contact in brutal conditions like this. Of course, he probably expected to get the end zone before contact. Anyway, announcers didn't mention it at the time...but the team moved in fits and starts after that first drive in a way that was at least partly the result of Rodgers being a bit erratic. Two picks, just 2 of 11 on third down conversions. Who knows.

Green Bay was up huge in yardage at the half. Chicago rallied after Jay Cutler went out behind third-teamer Caleb Hanie. Green Bay should have given him a little more respect. Nothing would have been more humiliating than blowing your Super Bowl shot because Caleb Hanie came off the bench to beat you!

PITTSBURGH 24, NY JETS 19
Total Yardage: NY Jets 289, Pittsburgh 287
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.1, Pittsburgh 4.5
Rushing Yards: NY Jets 70, Pittsburgh 166
Passing Lines: NY Jets 20-33-0-219, Pittsburgh 10-19-2-121
Turnovers: NY Jets 1, Pittsburgh 2
Sloppiness: NY Jets 18, Pittsburgh 19
Third Downs: NY Jets 35%, Pittsburgh 54%
Stat Score: NY Jets 16, Pittsburgh 20

Another first half stat rout. The Jets looked too tired to tackle on defense. The offense didn't get their wake up call until the second half. New York rallied to make it a game, and would have had a shot to go for the win if they had been able to force a punt. Pittsburgh was the only team today converting third downs, and they moved the chains when it mattered most.

This will be it for the blog until after the Super Bowl ends. I've been posting a pretty intense article load over at www.hoopdata.com if you're into stat stuff and the NBA. That will continue this week.

Thanks to everyone who visited here throughout the college bowls and NFL playoffs. Last year I did a March Madness stat sequence here in the blog. Not sure if I'll try that again this season. We'll see when it gets here. For now, NBA-centric stuff at hoopdata, which is fun to do...

Sunday Stats

2011-01-16T21:18:00.003-06:00

From Sunday's action...

CHICAGO 35, SEATTLE 24
Total Yardage: Seattle 276, Chicago 437
Yards-Per-Play: Seattle 4.6, Chicago 5.7
Passing Lines: Seattle 26-46-0-242, Chicago 15-29-1-261
Turnovers: Seattle 0, Chicago 1
Sloppiness: Seattle 20, Chicago 19
Third Downs: Seattle 21%, Chicago 56%
Stat Score: Seattle 14, Chicago 27

Stats pretty much tell the story there. The final score is a bit high because Seattle made efficient use of its yardage in garbage time. They were down 28-0 at one point, with not much yardage. Their 24 points against a relative prevent didn't even get them to 300 yards. Think YPP and Third Downs best capture the feel of the game. It was a blowout.

NY JETS 28, NEW ENGLAND 21
Total Yardage: NY Jets 314, New England 372
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.8, New England 4.8
Passing Lines: NY Jets 16-25-0-194, New England 29-45-1-259
Turnovers: NY Jets 0, New England 1
Sloppiness: NY Jets 9, New England 21
Third Downs: NY Jets 46%, New England 35%
Stat Score: NY Jets 19, New England 22

Got weird at the end with the Pats finally moving the ball after they had fallen way behind, then the Jets getting a cheap TD late after the return of the onside kick got them to the red zone. I think YPP and Third Downs best capture the real Jets dominance that was happening through most of the game. Well, that and the lack of sloppiness. But, they weren't running away and hiding with those edges, so the Pats were within striking distance until very late.

Have to say this one stunned me. Not that the Jets won, because upsets happen. But, that the Jets won while winning YPP and third downs. I could have seen a turnover debacle leading to an upset. Or, a surprisingly close game getting decided by special teams or defensive points (that's how the Jets beat the Steelers not too long ago). I didn't expect New England to be worthless most of the day with dinks and dunks that didn't go anywhere. I didn't expect them to keep dinking and dunking the whole game! Obviously the Jets were doing something that took away their other options.

Who'd have thought Bill Belichick would turn into a one-and-done guy like Norv Turner? Pats have lost their first playoff game each of the last two seasons, both at home as favorites. Truly a STUNNING reversal from what we had seen offensively from the Pats in recent weeks. Was that stretch of greatness (that had some pundits calling this one of the best teams of the modern era) all an illusion? Maybe it was just opposition defenses sitting back and saving something for when it matters...against a coach and offense that love piling up the points and TD's when things are going well. As soon as an opposing defense said "Okay, now we're going all out because it's the playoffs," the Patriots offense just disappeared.

Recent YPP's for New England's offense
6.8 at Pittsburgh
5.8 vs. Indianapolis
8.4 at Detroit on Thanksgiving
7.0 vs. NYJ in that MNF game
6.1 at Chicago
5.8 vs. Green Bay
4.8 today vs. NYJ

That's not running up production on patsies. That's posting big numbers vs. quality. Detroit's defense has improved this year. Everyone else made the playoffs. The 6.1 at Chicago came in a blizzard and they called off the dogs some in the second half.

It's worth noting though that the wins over Indianapolis and Green Bay were close, suggesting this was far from a team that was a sure thing for dominance. And, the game before Pittsburgh was a 4.8 at Cleveland, where Eric Mangini's defense did the same thing to Brady that you saw today, but with more takeaways and no garbage time yards allowed.

Was the whole league rope-a-doping New England? Wouldn't go that far. But, it could be true that you don't see the same intensity on opposing defenses in the regular season that you do in the playoffs. Give the Jets credit for making adjustments and turning the Pats back into mortals. Marvel that the Pats had no tricks up their sleeves once it was clear the stagecoach had turned into a pumpkin. You could hear the home crowd murmuring something like "This is the best you've got when trailing in the fourth quarter...ARE YOU KIDDING US?!"

No football until next weekend now. I'm still putting up some NBA notes weekdays at www.hoopdata.com. If you're into pro hoops or stathead stuff in general, hope to see you over there. Next blog will be on the evening of Championship Sunday once Green Bay/Chicago and NY Jets/Pittsburgh have come to an end. Both #1 seeds lost their first games at home. The two #2 seeds host the two #6 seeds next week. Who'da thunk it?

Green Bay Obliterates Atlanta

2011-01-15T23:10:00.003-06:00

Not much to add to the numbers, because the numbers explain the destruction pretty well.

GREEN BAY 48, ATLANTA 21
Total Yardage: Green Bay 442, Atlanta 194
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 6.4, Atlanta 4.0
Passing Lines: Green Bay 31-36-0-346, Atlanta 20-29-2-149
Turnovers: Green Bay 1, Atlanta 4
Sloppiness: Green Bay 9, Atlanta 29
Third Downs: Green Bay 67%, Atlanta 30%
Stat Score: Green Bay 24, Atlanta 11

Best descriptive stat is the 31-36-0-346 from Aaron Rodgers. Huge volume with incredible sharpness. Imagine if he played all of his games in a dome!

Stat score showed +13 points for Green Bay. Turnovers are usually worth four each, so that's +12 more in scoreboard differential. Overall, +25 in a game they won by 27. Didn't do that in the earlier game (which you may have read about already). Pittsburgh was +8 in stat score, +4 more with an extra turnover. That should be +12. But, Baltimore did have a defensive TD while Pittsburgh didn't...which would bring it back closer to the actual final score.

Will probably wait until Sunday evening to do both games at one time. See you Sunday Night...

What a Misleading Final Score?!

2011-01-15T19:08:00.002-06:00

Pittsburgh just defeated Baltimore 31-24, in a game that should have ended 15-7!

It was amazing to see. Baltimore jumped ahead 21-7 in the first half thanks to a real touchdown...and two gifts. This was reminiscent of last year's Baltimore/New England playoff game when Baltimore was ahead 24-0 in the first quarter thanks to a real touchdown and three gifts. All they had to do was not turn the ball over in the second half, and their defense would likely be able to protect that lead (in what would have been a replay of Baltimore/NE last year...back when the Patriots weren't very good by playoff standards).

BAM! Fumble
BAM! Ridiculously horrible interception by Flacco
BAM! Fumble when the center snapped the ball into his own leg

The gifts had been returned like it was the week after Christmas...and suddenly Pittsburgh was seemingly in command.

REVERSE BAM! Baltimore returns a punt for a TD to take the lead, but a hold near the end of the run kept them off the board. They settled for a field goal on their third very short scoring drive of the day.

(Why all the BAMS? I was watching some of the Green Hornet TV marathon on SyFy the other day, and it reminded me of the time the Green Hornet stars did a cameo on Batman...and Bruce Ward was terrified of Bruce Lee)

We're at 24-24...and then Big Ben completes a monster bomb to set up the go-ahead score for the Steelers. Pittsburgh should have won by about a TD, and they did. The statbox below shows you how out of synch the 31-24 final score was with the actual production.

PITTSBURGH 31, BALTIMORE 24
Total Yardage: Baltimore 126, Pittsburgh 263
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 2.4, Pittsburgh 3.8
Passing Lines: Baltimore 16-30-1-91, Pittsburgh 19-32-0-192
Turnovers: Baltimore 3, Pittsburgh 2
Sloppiness: Baltimore 29, Pittsburgh 23
Third Downs: Baltimore 42%, Pittsburgh 50%
Stat Score: Baltimore 7, Pittsburgh 15

Amazing. Only 126 total yards for the Ravens, on 2.4 yards-per-play. And, they almost won! Pittsburgh had what would have been a disappointing game if not for the bomb. That blew up their YPP to 3.8!

Stat score is 15-7 for the Steelers, which would be normal for a defensive struggle in a blizzard with the quarterbacks wearing eye patches. If you're new to the blog, the formula for that is 2 times rushing yards...plus 1 times passing yards...times 0.67...divided by 15. It's an estimate of what the score "should" have been with that level of production (or non-production in this case).

Sloppiness is something you want to avoid. Neither team did that here. It's five times giveaways...plus the number of incomplete passes. The higher the number, the worse your performance. The only worse sloppiness thus far in the playoffs was what Kansas City did against Baltimore last week.

Interesting:
KC gained 161 yards with a sloppiness of 34 last week
Baltimore gained 126 yards with a sloppiness of 29 tonight

Kansas City's performance was seen as one of the jokes of the decade. Baltimore basically did the same thing here...but the cheap points off early Pittsburgh screw-ups helped hide that.

Maybe both teams were afraid of playing the Patriots!

Obviously you have to give credit to the defenses for forcing all the turnovers. But...given the experience of the QB's...and the understanding that they HAD to protect the ball as a top priority, it was odd to see all the miscues that happened deep in each team's territory. Tough luck if you had the Under. A miracle win for you if you were rooting for the Over.

See you probably about an hour after Green Bay/Atlanta ends...

Disappointing BCS Finale

2011-01-10T23:53:00.004-06:00

I really thought there'd be a lot to write about here. Who likes writing about PUNTS?!

You may be surprised at the yardage totals. The teams did produce a lot of yardage, but each failed to convert on fourth and goals from the one. Then, Auburn died at the one before kicking their game winning field goal. Wish we could have watched the game that these stats hinted at:

AUBURN 22, OREGON 19
Total Yardage: Auburn 520, Oregon 455
Yards-Per-Play: Auburn 6.1, Oregon 6.1
Rushing Yards: Auburn 255, Oregon 81
Passing Lines: Auburn 20-35-1-265, Oregon 28-41-2-374
Turnovers: Auburn 2, Oregon 2
Sloppiness: Auburn 25, Oregon 23
Third Downs: Auburn 53%, Oregon 33%
Stat Score: Auburn 35, Oregon 24

Auburn wins stat score huge because of that rushing edge (two times rushing yards...plus passing yards...times 0.67...divided by 15). You can see how it paid off in third down conversions too. But, they couldn't create a turnover edge with their superior ground game...and, in fact, blew their late lead because of a quarterback fumble.

Did it feel like you were watching a game featuring 520 yards vs. 455 yards?

Disappointed that the turf was so slick. I think that really hurt Oregon's chances a lot because they rely so much on speed and creativity. Auburn relies on speed and power. Once it was clear the turf was slick...speed and creativity had to tip-toe...and power ruled the night. That's more clear in stat score than on the scoreboard I think.

No football now until Saturday. I'll be back then to pick up with boxscore notes from the playoffs. If you're into NBA numbers, I'll be posting a few articles this week at www.hoopdata.com.

Sunday Wildcard Numbers

2011-01-09T19:13:00.003-06:00

The stat boxes from Sunday's Wildcard games...

BALTIMORE 30, KANSAS CITY 7
Total Yardage: Baltimore 390, Kansas City 161
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.0, Kansas City 4.0
Passing Lines: Baltimore 25-34-0-248, Kansas City 9-18-3-53
Turnovers: Baltimore 2, Kansas City 5
Sloppiness: Baltimore 19, Kansas City 34
Third Downs: Baltimore 52%, Kansas City 12%
Stat Score: Baltimore 24, Kansas City 12

What a squash! It wasn't quite this bad the whole game. Baltimore was moving well by throwing to Todd Heap (Kansas City seemed to have everything accounted for except Heap and Flacco running...so Baltimore was happy to throw to Heap and let Flacco scramble every so often)...but they weren't doing much scoreboard damage. KC led 7-3 late in the first half...and lost from that point forward 27-0.

KC's offense kept turning the ball over. KC's defense lost its spirit after a while...and you see the results.

Stat score made it Baltimore by 12. Plus three turnovers is 12 more points because turnovers are usually worth about four points each. That's Baltimore by 24, in a game they won by 23. Amazing how stat relationships stay so standard over time, even with evolutionary ticks in the game.

Baltimore plays Pittsburgh next week. Pittsburgh will probably have something planned for Heap and Flacco scrambles...meaning the Ravens wont' score more than 13 points unless they come up with something a bit more creative. Vanilla only works for so long.

GREEN BAY 21, PHILADELPHIA 16
Total Yardage: Green Bay 309, Philadelphia 352
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 5.1, Philadelphia 5.9
Passing Lines: Green Bay 18-27-0-171, Philadelphia 20-36-1-270
Turnovers: Green Bay 2, Philadelphia 1
Sloppiness: Green Bay 19, Philadelphia 21
Third Downs: Green Bay 61%, Philadelphia 38%
Stat Score: Green Bay 20, Philadelphia 19

The Packers almost let it get away. They were up 21-10, and had contained the Eagles for the most part. They were lucky that 21 turned out to be enough. Philly missed two field goals and threw an interception in the end zone in the final minute. Nice game from the Packers...but they can't just cross their fingers with a lead the next two weeks and hope they'll wind up in the Super Bowl. They got conservative two possessions too early...and it almost blew up in their face.

Philly won YPP, but the missed FG's negated that. Plus, passing yardage can have some air in it. Green Bay won stat score by one. Normally GB's -1 turnover differential would have flipped that to Philly by 3. But...the two missed FG's by the Eagles flipped it right back!

The NFC still feels like a "name out of a hat" year. Green Bay definitely still deserves to be in the hat. They visit Atlanta next week. Seattle doesn't, but is in there anyway as they head to frigid Chicago. Philadelphia has another playoff disappointment to ponder. And, they also have to wonder if Vick can ever stay healthy enough to string together wins in big games. He's going to keep running into injuries. Announcers didn't mention it I think...but after turning has ankle on the failed two-point try...that final doomed pass was underthrown...which happens on bum ankles. You commit to Vick...and you're basically committing to 4-5 really great performances...2-3 missed games (maybe more)...then hoping he doesn't sprain something in the playoffs. A bigger gamble than people realize I think.

Back very late Monday Night after Auburn-Oregon...

Dogs Pull Playoff Upsets on Saturday

2011-01-08T22:46:00.002-06:00

Seattle and the NY Jets advance to next week's Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs despite entering the day as underdogs. Seattle was given little shot to knock off the Saints...though we hope it was less of a surpripse than it might have been had you not been monitoring New Orleans' weak strength of schedule all season in the Funhouse Mirror League. Of coure, Seattle was in that league too! Seattle found a healthy quarterback just as New Orleans was losing healthy running backs. And, the Saints just weren't ever as good as the "momentum" types were hoping down the stretch.

SEATTLE 41, NEW ORLEANS 36
Total Yardage: New Orleans 474, Seattle 415
Yards-Per-Play: New Orleans 5.7, Seattle 6.8
Passing Lines: New Orleans 39-60-0-397, Seattle 22-35-1-266
Turnovers: New Orleans 1, Seattle 1
Sloppiness: New Orleans 26, Seattle 17
Third Downs: New Orleans 46%, Seattle 42%
Stat Score: New Orleans 25, Seattle 25

Stat Score has a lower scoring dead heat. Neither defense could do much to stop the other side. That's a massive YPP for Seattle's previously struggling offense. New Orleans had to settle for a couple of field goals or we might have seen both teams make a run at 45 or so. Didn't really feel like a playoff game. Heck, neither game today did to me and Mrs. Blog (she felt both the Jets and Colts were too conservative, and the winner would be in trouble next week, which allowed me the freedom to make dinner). Felt like more like a bowl game involving somebody from the Sun Belt or CUSA. 95 combined passes! Hawaii/Tulsa had 88.

Seattle won't know who they play next week until tomorrow. Would be cool if they could do an Arizona-redux...with an NFC West team getting their veteran QB healthy just in time to wreak havoc in the brackets (as we saw two years ago). Don't think Hasselbeck is quite the same as Kurt Warner. But, he played that way today so you never know.

NY JETS 17, INDIANAPOLIS 16
Total Yardage: NY Jets 353, Indianapolis 312
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.0, Indianapolis 5.8
Passing Lines: NY Jets 18-31-1-184, Indianapolis 18-26-0-219
Turnovers: NY Jets 1, Indianapolis 0
Sloppiness: NY Jets 18, Indianapolis 8
Third Downs: NY Jets 53%, Indianapolis 46%
Stat Score: NY Jets 23, Indianapolis 18

Stat score says the right team won and covered. If turnovers are worth four points, that 1-0 deficit took four points off the board and turned 23-18 into 19-18, which is pretty darned close to 17-16. That makes sense since the turnover was an intereption near the goal line when the Jets were about to score. The Colts won YPP, but the Jets won rushing yardage 169-93, and third downs. Basically toss up stats in a toss-up game. The winner was going to be in trouble next week vs. Pittsburgh or New England. The Jets get New England, with little evidence right now that they're significantly better than when they got drilled 45-3 on that field awhile back. Sanchez wasn't sharp in perfect conditions tonight.

Both were compelling games of course. In terms of entertainment, it was a fun 6 hours to watch. In terms of influencing the championship picture...all you can say is that one of the NFC bye teams may have drawn a virtual second bye unless Seattle keeps this going on the road next week...and nobody on the field today looked ready to run the table. Maybe you could make the case that the Jets could string together coin flip type games and catch a month of breaks.

Last year's Super Bowl teams will be home with the rest of us watching Sunday's games...and the remainder of the postseason. See you Sunday Night...

LSU Expresses SEC West Dominance

2011-01-07T23:05:00.004-06:00

Arkansas wasn't able to rally against Ohio State...but LSU had no troubles taking care of business against Texas A&M. The Tigers join Alabama and Mississippi State in the winner's circle. Auburn may or may not join them there Monday Night. Arkansas is the only loss for the division...as probably the 3rd or 4th best team losing a 5-point game to the Buckeyes. What a division.

LSU 41, TEXAS A&M 24
Total Yardage: LSU 446, Texas A&M 351
Yards-Per-Play: LSU 6.0, Texas A&M 5.4
Rushing Yards: LSU 288, Texas A&M 155
Passing Lines: LSU 10-19-1-158, Texas A&M 23-36-3-196
Turnovers: LSU 1, Texas A&M 4
Sloppiness: LSU 14, Texas A&M 33
Third Downs: LSU 60%, Texas A&M 33%
Stat Score: LSU 33, Texas A&M 22

Up and down dominance. LSU was better at everything. Stat score was 33-22. Their turnover edge of +3 would be worth about +12 in scoreboard differential typically. Make that 45-22, and you're pretty close to the 41-24 final score. Big edge on third downs...big edge on sharpness. Yards-per-play wasn't that eye-popping, but they were doing that mostly on the ground with a lower risk approach. That's the nature of why rushing yards should count more than passing yards. They come with lower risk.

Still a nice season for the Aggies. A tip of the hat from those of us who wear burnt orange when we mow the grass or rake the leaves.

From Thursday Night...

MIAMI OF OHIO 35, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 21
Total Yardage: Middle Tenn 370, Miami 416
Yards-Per-Play: Middle Tenn 6.1, Miami 5.4
Rushing Yards: Middle Tenn 208, Miami 118
Passing Lines: Middle Tenn 18-29-4-162, Miami 23-37-2-298
Turnovers: Middle Tenn 5, Miami 2
Slopiness: Middle Tenn 36, Miami 24
Stat Score: Middle Tenn 26, Miami 24

Funny game. Middle Tennessee combined LSU's strong stat YPP and rushing edges with A&M's sloppiness and lost the game! Usually a rushing edge helps you avoid turnovers. Dasher threw FOUR interceptions in just 29 passes. Amazing how far his stock has fallen this year. He was supposed to be a breakout talent, but got suspended for the first four games for playing poker in an old folk's home or something. He was sluggish with occasional flashes of greatness once he returned. Same here...a big running TD...but a ton of miscues. That -3 in turnover differential is worth about 12 points on the scoreboard. Give 12 to Miami's stat score, and you get 36-26, compared to a 35-21 final score. A sloppiness win for Miami, who would have lost without the gift field position based on these numbers.

Back Saturday Night after the first two Wildcard games have ended. Looking forward to the start of the playoffs. The roster is loaded outside of Seattle and Kansas City...and Kansas City can walk and chew gum a bit more than they're getting credit for. It did come against a soft schedule though. See you Saturday Night...

Ohio State Survives Arkansas

2011-01-04T23:37:00.004-06:00

Ohio State looked fairly safe with a 28-10 halftime lead. They were moving the ball at will in the first half (well over 300 yards at the break), and Arkansas looked like they'd have to play perfect football from that point forward to make it a game.

Instead, the Buckeyes came out flat and never really got their mojo back. Arkansas rallied to make it 31-26, then blocked a punt in the final moments that gave them GREAT field position and a chance to win the game. Ryan Mallet was picked off...nipping a potentially thrilling ending right in the bud (though the pick was certainly thrilling for Buckeyes fans like Grandmama Blog!).

Let's look at the numbers...

OHIO STATE 31, ARKANSAS 26
Total Yardage: Ohio State 446, Arkansas 402
Yards-Per-Play: Ohio State 6.4, Arkansas 5.2
Rushing Yards: Ohio State 225, Arkansas 125
Passing Lines: Ohio State 14-25-0-221, Arkansas 24-47-1-277
Turnovers: Ohio State 0, Arkansas 1
Sloppiness: Ohio State 11, Arkansas 28
Stat Score: Ohio State 30, Arkansas 24

Haven't said what sloppiness and stat score are for awhile. For you newcomers, sloppiness is 5 times giveaways plus the number of uncompleted passes. You want to avoid sloppiness, so the lower the number the better. Ohio State had a big edge here...but that's because a blocked punt doesn't count against you as a turnover! Stat score is 2 time rushing yardage...plus passing yardage...times 0.65...divided by 15. That's an estimate of what the final score "should" have been based on the yardage breakdowns. You can see here that it landed almost right on the money. The Arkansas turnover wiped out the influence of the blocked punt. The "right" team won and covered according to those numbers.

Can't say it was a great 60-minute game. It was a great finish. There was a fantastic intensity to the first half that was a joy to watch. But, Ohio State won that 28-10, so it wasn't exactly a close first half. The second half seemed quieter until Arkansas got within striking distance. Can something be "mostly" a great game? Some of the air was out of the balloon for a little over a quarter. It was one heckuva balloon when inflated.

Ohio State gets some revenge for the Big Ten vs. the SEC. It did come against probably the 3rd best team in the SEC though. It wasn't Ohio State vs. Auburn, or even Ohio State vs. Alabama. It was Ohio State vs. Arkansas, and they established superiority over the Hogs in my view.

It's true that Arkansas dropped way too many passes...and that the game could have turned if more of those weren't dropped. Arkansas runs the higher risk attack (47 pass attempts to 25 tonight). Goofy stuff happens when you rely that much on passing. Stat score and sloppiness have helped show that throughout the bowls, and throughout the history of the blog.

No football Wednesday (What, is that possible? No commercials in January for a "December to Remember" car offer? No snippets of a marching band playing "I Am the Champion" every commercial break? No Danica Patrick commercials from two years ago?)There's a fairly irrelevant bowl game Thursday Night. It's Middle Tennessee vs. Miami of Ohio in the Go Daddy Bowl (welcome back old Danica commercials!). I'll delay that one...and come back after LSU-Auburn Friday Night to run the numbers from both games.

If you're into the NBA, I'm contributing NBA articles to www.hoopdata.com on close to a daily basis. I'll have some stuff there the next couple of days. Or, you can visit and catch up on recent pro hoops notes. Time to start thinking about basketball with football winding down!

See you Friday Night...

Wow...Stanford STUNS Virginia Tech (among others)

2011-01-03T23:31:00.002-06:00

Even if you were the biggest Stanford backer out there, you probably weren't expecting THIS level of dominance in the Orange Bowl. It was more one-sided statistically than OU/Connecticut, and right up there with Alabama/Michigan State. Don't forget that Virginia Tech played a neutral field dead heat with Boise State to start the season. Stanford was so much better than Boise State that it's scary. Precision, physicality, brains, speed, a truly elite team. Oregon's chances in the BCS game just got better. Proxy's Alabama and Stanford may be signalling at an epic struggle next Monday.

STANFORD 40, VIRGINIA TECH 12
Total Yardage: Stanford 534, Virginia Tech 289
Yards-per-Play: Stanford 9.9, Virginia Tech 4.3
Rushing Yards: Stanford 247, Virginia Tech 67
Passing Lines: Stanford 18-23-1-287, Virginia Tech 16-33-1-222
Turnovers: Stanford 2, Virginia Tech 1
Sloppiness: Stanford 15, Virginia Tech 22
Stat Score: Stanford 35, Virginia Tech 16

Nine-point-nine on ypp for Stanford. Nobody's done that in a bowl game yet. Alabama was awesome at 8.1. Northern Illinois had some fun with 9.1. Virginia Tech's defense wasn't supposed to be innocent bystanders. They hung tough for a half, but couldn't keep up with the varied formations and weaponry. By the end of the game, Stanford was just showing off. They looked like a marching band sending players all over the place in formation. Harbaugh's a bully genius!

There's not much to say because it becomes piling superlatives on superlatives after you probably watched the game and marvelled on your own. You came here to see what it all looked like in numbers! 9.9 to 4.3 is +5.6, bigger than the +5.1 Alabama stuck on Michigan State. Though, given the intracacies of play, it was more like watching a piece of art being painted than anything else. Football as art.

Don't want to forget that Lou Holtz had some great stuff before the game about how badly the ACC has performed in big time bowls. You probably saw during the game that Frank Beamer has an awful straight up record vs. top five opponents. Some of that is loaded because his teams may not always have been great when he ran into top five opponents! But...Beamer-ball is about forcing mistakes, and top notch teams don't make any.

The ACC so far:

*Champion Virginia Tech was obliterated here.

*Runner-up Florida State beat South Carolina, but it was a turnover win with a 5-1 edge. YPP was 6.1 to 4.7 for South Carolina.

*Miami of Florida lost to Notre Dame (losing turnovers but winning ypp).

*Clemson lost to South Florida (statistical dead heat vs. an unimpressive Big East team).

*North Carolina was lucky to win in OT vs. Tennessee, an unimpressive SEC team.

*Maryland crushed East Carolina, suggesting clear superiority over lousy mid majors at least.

*NC State beat West Virginia with a 5-1 turnover edge, losing YPP 5.1 to 4.7.

*Georgia Tech lost to Air Force, winning ypp 4.5 to 4.0 but losing turnovers.

Sorry...nothing to write home about. 4-4 against the Vegas spreads, but 3-5 ATS at the end of regulation. Two of the covers were turnover wins with YPP losses. The only clean win/cover with impressive stats was Maryland over EC

The ACC still belongs above the Big East in the BCS conference pecking order. Their best teams aren't national powers.

Back tomorrow night after Ohio State/Arkansas...

NBC...here's what you could have done...

2011-01-02T22:30:00.002-06:00

NBC...you could have spent your pre-game show for Sunday Night's St. Louis/Seattle game talking about how Sam Bradford had unimpressive stats this year vs. one of the softest schedules in the league. You could have talked about how badly he played the last time he ran into an opponent who knew what they were doing.

That would be...
21-43-2-181 at home against Kansas City two weeks ago.

You could have talked about how 7-8 St. Louis would probably have been more like 5-10 if they had played a league average schedule. They entered Sunday Night's game having faced the 31st ranked scheduled (out of 32 teams) according to the USA Today computer ratings.

You could have talked about how Bradford ranked 24th in the league in Passer Rating entering the night, with an unimpressive 18-14 TD/INT ratio...and how THOSE numbers came against a very soft schedule.

You could have talked about how St. Louis ranked 24th in the NFL in 3rd Down conversion rate, with a paltry 34% mark. And, how THAT came against a very soft schedule. Quarterbacks have a huge impact on a team's third down conversion rate.

The story was there for the telling...how the Sam Bradford hype was at least partly an illusion (if not more). Yes, he's doing okay for a rookie. Just okay. Not great. Not "Oh my God this Rookie of the Year is Destined For Greatness. A mediocre passer rating, an unimpressive TD/INT ratio, an inability to convert third downs, all against a pathetic schedule.

If the Rams entered the week 5-10 (and subsequently lost for 5-11), would ANYONE be raving about Sam Bradford in this fashion? Up-and-comer, sure. GUSH, GUSH, GUSH, TELL US ABOUT THE PING PONG TABLE YOU BOUGHT!!!! Please.

NBC, you would have looked like geniuses. You would have been hailed for seeing through the hype and telling viewers what they really needed to know. Instead, all the pre-game chatter looked pretty silly when THIS happened...

SEATTLE 16, ST. LOUIS 6
Total Yardage: St. Louis 184, Seattle 333
Yards-Per-Play: St. Louis 3.6, Seattle 4.7
Passing Lines: St. Louis 19-36-1-137, Seattle 22-36-0-192
Turnovers: St. Louis 1, Seattle 1
Sloppiness: St. Louis 22, Seattle 19
Third Downs: St. Louis 14% (2 of 14!), Seattle 27%

Oh, Seattle has one of the worst defenses statistically in the league. And, THEY ALSO PLAYED A SOFT SCHEDULE!

I'm not going to call Bradford a choker or anything like that. He's a gamer who's still in over his head. In proper context, there's reason to be optimistic about his longterm future. In terms of what's happening THIS year, it's as if the mainstream media is bending over backwards to NOT tell the story.

I think the Funhouse Mirror League helped us with this. Focusing on the teams playing very soft schedules helped us see St. Louis as being a couple of games worse than their already unimpressive record. Also, posting the YPP numbers with every boxscore helped express their weakness in that area. The Rams ranked 30th in the league in YPP entering the game, and will probably drop down to 31st. Is that a characteristic of great quarterbacking?

We got to see a lot of Bradford down here in Big 12 country. It would be great if he does have a big NFL career. Just be honest about where he is, and the pace he's progressing at.

Back after Monday Night's Orange Bowl to run the numbers from Stanford/Virginia Tech...

OU Wins Big

2011-01-01T23:35:00.002-06:00

I had been rolling up Christmas tree lights so I wouldn't have to untangle them 11 months from now from a pile at the bottom of the closet, and I didn't realize UCONN's first TD had been defensive...so I had no idea why the announcers were making a big deal about the Huskies trying to score an offensive TD at the end of the game. The announcers had made such a big deal about how great UCONN and the Big East were all night...it wouldn't have occured to me that they hadn't scored an offensive TD for the second straight game!

OKLAHOMA 48, CONNECTICUT 20
Offensive TD's: UCONN 0, Oklahoma 4
Total Yardage: UCONN 335, Oklahoma 524
Yards-Per-Play: UCONN 4.2, Oklahoma 6.5
Passing Lines: UCONN 19-39-2-223, Oklahoma 34-50-1-429
Turnovers: UCONN 2, Oklahoma 2
Sloppiness: UCONN 30, Oklahoma 26
Stat Score: UCONN 20, Oklahoma 28

A goofball game. If you feel hosed with UCONN, just remeber that offensive TD's were 4-0, which is 28-0 with a spread around 17. OU knows how to find the end zone. UCONN has to grind its way there...and they're likely to have trouble grinding when stepping up in class. If you had the Under, you probably did get hosed. There 28 non-offensive points in this game (two per team...pick six and a kick return for UCONN, two picks sixes for OU). So...that's 34-6 without them. Or, the stat score shows 48 points...though it has little correlation to the game we saw. Goofball game!

Best way to say it is this way. OU won YPP 6.5 to 4.2...AND they know how to finish off drives much better than UCONN. You can see why teams like Utah State, Air Force, and Cincinnati managed covers. They turned the yardage into points and hung within tall numbers. UCONN's offense just couldn't.

Glad to see ESPN mention the Big Ten's 0-5 day near the end of the game. It was a developing story in the third quarter of the TCU/Wisconsin game...only about five hours late.

I probably won't run all the stats from NFL Sunday just because so many games are meaningless. If there are big upsets, I'll come back in the evening and do those. Since Sunday Night's game matters, I'll do a late report after that and post a few notes from the day. See you then...

New Year's Stats

2011-01-01T22:27:00.003-06:00

At some point I'll have a rant about the Big 10 using its powerbroker status to get five teams playing on New Year's...only to see those teams go 0-5. Take about half of that energy you're using to complain about why there isn't a playoff...and use it to complain that a conference that HASN'T been the best in the nation for eons is still treated that way by the men with money. Illinois and Iowa showed off the strengths of the league vs. soft defenses. Five teams showed off the weaknesses of the league today.

TEXAS TECH 45, NORTHWESTERN 38
Total Yardage: Northwestern 375, Texas Tech 552
Yards-Per-Play: Northwestern 4.7, Texas Tech 6.3
Rushing Yards: Northwestern 229, Texas Tech 183
Passing Lines: Northwestern 14-30-1-146, Texas Tech 43-56-1-369
Turnovers: Northwestern 1, Texas Tech 2
Sloppiness: Northwestern 19, Texas Tech 23
Stat Score: Northwestern 27, Texas Tech 33

I had to play Mr. Mom, Mr. Dad, Mr. Take Down the Xmas Tree, Mr. Chauffer, and Mr. Write 4,000 Words For Your Employer at various times today, so I'll save the commentary on all the games for another occasion. NW did cover with a pick six in the fourth quarter. But, they had the raw stats to hang within the number anyway based on stat score (2 times rushing yardage, plus passing yardage, times 0.65, divided by 15). If a team passes the ball 56 times, they're probably going to have turnovers...and those turnovers often set up cheap points. If you're backing Tech in a game like this, you're asking for perfection over 50+ passes.

FLORIDA 37, PENN STATE 24
Total Yardage: Florida 279, Penn State 350
Yards-Per-Play: Florida 3.9, Penn State 4.5
Rushing Yards: Florida 178, Penn State 139
Passing Lines: Florida 14-27-1-101, Penn State 17-41-5-211
Turnovers: Florida 2, Penn State 5
Sloppiness: Florida 23, Penn State 49
Stat Score: Florida 20, Penn State 22

Florida covered with a pick six in the final minute, which was much more of a hosejob. Favorite players go 1-1 with the hosejobs, as do dog players. My condolences to those of you who got it worse than that with these two games. Horrible turnover game for Penn State who was forced out of their comfort zone against a faster team. As often happened this year, Florida won with its defense because its offense just can't do that much. Ugly numbers for Florida going down the line (bad YPP, bad sloppiness for a conservative game plan). For you newcomers, sloppiness is 5 times giveaways...plus the number of uncompleted passes. Penn State's 49 was the worst of the day by a mile.

ALABAMA 49, MICHIGAN STATE 7
Total Yardage: Alabama 546, Michigan State 171
Yards-Per-Play: Alabama 8.1, Michigan State 3.0
Rushing Yards: Alabama 275, Michigan State -48
Passing Lines: Alabama 19-23-0-271, Michigan State 14-29-1-219
Turnovers: Alabama 0, Michigan State 1
Sloppiness: Alabama 4, Michigan State 20
Stat Score: Alabama 37, Michigan State 5

This put any "the SEC is falling back to earth" or "the Big Ten is catching up with the SEC" talk back on the shelf. Michigan State was a co-champ of the Big Ten. Alabama lost to Auburn, LSU, and South Carolina. This was an annihilation. Alabama gained almost 550 yards with a sloppiness score of 4 on a neutral field. Reminiscent of Florida over Cincinnati last year in terms of men vs. boys.

MISSISSIPPI STATE 52, MICHIGAN 14
Total Yardage: Miss. State 491, Michigan 341
Yards-Per-Play: Miss. State 6.1, Michigan 5.2
Rushing Yards: Miss. State 210, Michigan 85
Passing Lines: Miss. State 18-23-1-281, Michigan 27-41-1-256
Turnovers: Miss. State 1, Michigan 2
Sloppiness: Miss. State 10, Michigan 24
Stat Score: Miss. State 31, Michigan 19

The latest data point in the "Urban Meyer was getting all the success for what Dan Mullen was doing over the years...and then what Mullen and Tebow were doing lately" line of thinking. Florida's offense has stopped without Mullen and Tebow. Mississippi State's ignited under Mullen's guidance. Sure, they were playing Michigan's horrible defense. But, 52 on the scoreboard is a nice day at the park. Not as brutal for the Big Ten as Alabama/Michigan State because Michigan wasn't a co-champion...and everyone knows they can't tackle.

TCU 21, WISCONSIN 19
Total Yardage: Wisconsin 385, TCU 301
Yards-Per-Play: Wisconsin 5.7, TCU 6.1
Rushing Yards: Wisconsin 226, TCU 82
Passing Lines: Wisconsin 12-21-0-159, TCU 15-23-0-219
Turnovers: Wisconsin 0, TCU 0
Sloppiness: Wisconsin 9, TCU 8
Stat Score: Wisconsin 27, TCU 17

Time of possession messed up some of the math here. Wisconsin had the ball for 36.5 minutes, TCU just 23.5. You see that TCU won YPP. If they both had the ball 30 minutes, TCU would have won total yardage 384-316, roughly reversing the numbers in the boxscore. So, the stat score isn't exactly right. But, with that big rushing edge, Wisconsin probably should have won a field goal type game rather than TCU. Credit to TCU for producing when they had a chance. Wisconsin fell just short. Sympathies to Dan Flaherty and the rest of Badger Nation. No shame for Wisconites that they're from the second best state in the nation...

Yes, TCU is the new UT until further notice. With about 40,000 fewer students.

Back after UCONN/Oklahoma ends to run those numbers and wrap up the day...

Late Thursday-Early Friday

2010-12-31T18:17:00.003-06:00

Picking up where we left off...

WASHINGTON 19, NEBRASKA 7
Total Yardage: Nebraska 189, Washington 340
Yards-Per-Play: Nebraska 3.0, Washington 4.8
Rushing Yards: Nebraska 91, Washington 268
Passing Lines: Nebraska 10-21-1-98, Washington 6-19-0-72
Turnovers: Nebraska 2, Washington 0
Sloppiness: Nebraska 21, Washington 13
Stat Score: Nebraska 13, Washington 27

Perhaps the least motivated team in the history of bowls laid an unsurprising egg. Nebraska's defense was there...but lacked heart at the point of attack in the second half (because there's no way Washington should rush for 268 yards on THAT defense!). The offense fiddled around all night, with a QB still reeling from getting chewed out on national TV by his coach awhile back (and still hobbled). Washington scored only 17 offensive points with stats that should yield 27 (they had a safety too). That gives you a sense of how shaky their offense is, and how unready Jake Locker is for the NFL. Nice of Todd Blackledge to report the opposite all through the second half. Show me an NFL QB who was 6-19 passing in his senior year bowl game! Basically a replay of Nebraska/Texas (as I imagined it from the boxscore because I was in Italy at the time). Nebraska had that late punt return TD vs. Texas or the scores would have been almost identical. If Nebraska doesn't break any big plays, they have no offense. It's not a team that can drive the field for points if you've manned up against them.

SOUTH FLORIDA 31, CLEMSON 26
Total Yardage: S. Florida 278, Clemson 296
Yards-Per-Play: S. Florida 4.3, Clemson 4.4
Rushing Yards: S. Florida 90, Clemson 50
Passing Lines: S. Florida 19-27-1-188, Clemson 24-41-2-246
Turnovers: S. Florida 2, Clemson 2
Sloppiness: S. Florida 18, Clemson 27
Stat Score: S. Florida 16, Clemson 16

South Florida led 31-13, then fell asleep late. Clemson scored a TD with just under two minutes to go....then recovered an onside kick and scored again. That helped even out the yardage, ypp, and stat score stuff when SF had an earlier edge. It wasn't really much of an edge though. Somehow a statistical defensive struggle became a high scoring game. It wasn't from super-cheap points either. South Florida either had a long drive for a TD, or punted all day. Pretty much the same for Clemson. Kyle Parker broke some ribs (Clemson QB), just before going back to baseball. Little things like this are going to loom over tournament talks eventually...when the players demand compensation for their risk in extra games.

NOTRE DAME 33, MIAMI 17
Total Yardage: Notre Dame 397, Miami 405
Yards-Per-Play: Notre Dame 5.2, Miami 6.2
Rushing Yards: Notre Dame 202, Miami 86
Passing Lines: Notre Dame 16-30-0-195, Miami 26-40-4-319
Turnovers: Notre Dame 0, Miami 4
Sloppiness: Notre Dame 14, Miami 34
Stat Score: Notre Dame 27, Miami 22

Notre Dame led 27-0 before Miami kicked a late field goal before halftime. Miami won the second half 14-6 when both teams were kind of playing out the game. That messes up the stats a bit. The first half was your basic "motivated running team moves relatively easily vs. flat passing team" script that we've seen variations of already. Disappointing renewal of an old rivalry. I guess one of the big disappointments in terms of game quality considering hyped matchups. At least you could tell early that Miami wasn't all there. Sometimes the interim coaches get the kids fired up. Sometimes, they'd all rather be home doing something else. Do you think kids from Miami wanted to be in El Paso for New Year's? LeBron took his talents to South Beach for a reason!

CENTRAL FLORIDA 10, GEORGIA 6
Total Yardage: Georgia 279, Central Florida 241
Yards-Per-Play: Georgia 4.0, Central Florida 4.0
Rushing Yards: Georgia 81, Central Florida 125
Passing Lines: Georgia 21-38-2-198, Central Florida 16-30-2-116
Turnovers: Georgia 2, Central Florida 2
Sloppiness: Georgia 27, Central Florida 24
Stat Score: Georgia 16, Central Florida 16

Basically a replay of South Florida/Clemson! Both games had stat scores of 16-16. Both games had 2-2 in turnovers. Both games saw both offenses fail to reach 300 yards. How can one game end 31-26 while the other ends 10-6? Depends on how theyardage clusters, and whether or not teams can cash in their scoring opportunities. Georgia had an early VERY long drive end with a field goal. That was part of it. Nature of the beast. That's why handicappers try to win more than they lose rather than trying to win every single game. You can't win every single game because there's so much internal variance from game to game.

It's New Year's Eve, so I'm not coming back tonight for SC/FSU. Will include that in the first report Saturday...which will probably be after the Rose Bowl the way the day is shaping up. Hope you have fun responsibly this evening. HAPPY NEW YEAR! See you early Saturday evening...

Thursday Night

2010-12-30T23:41:00.004-06:00

North Carolina/Tennessee turned out to be a great game. Classic hard-hitting affair that reminds you how brutal the schedules are in the BCS conferences. These are mid-level teams who head hunt. Boise State and TCU just don't deal with this on a weekly basis. Maybe someday we'll see how they'd perform with that kind of challenge. Tennessee was a soft spot on the SEC schedules this year...not in the same kind of way that San Jose State or Colorado State is a soft spot.

NORTH CAROLINA 30, TENNESSEE 27 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: N. Carolina 385, Tennessee 339
Yards-Per-Play: N. Carolina 5.0, Tennessee 4.6
Passing Lines: N. Carolina 23-40-1-234, Tennessee 27-45-3-312
Turnovers: N. Carolina 2, Tennessee 3
Sloppiness: N. Carolina 27, Tennessee 33
Stat Score: N. Carolina 24, Tennessee 16

It was tied 20-all after 60 minutes, with turnovers even at two. The math says North Carolina should have won it then...but if you watched, you know they were VERY fortunate to even force overtime. Butch Davis mangled clock management in the final seconds to an extreme degree. Kids playing video games know not to run with no timeouts and not much time left. It's great to know that the next generation of coaches will have played thousands of hours of "Madden" and learned clock management.

Great atmosphere with a big pro-Tennessee crowd in Nashville. The Vols ended the season well, and clearly wanted to get a bowl win here. North Carolina developed an us-against-the-world mentality that not all bowl teams manage to find in time. Neither team is really that great, so they couldn't shake each other.

IF ONLY ALL BOWL DAYS WERE LIKE THIS!

Washington/Nebraska just went to the fourth quarter, and it's almost midnight CT. Will talk about that one in the first update tomorrow. Took me longer to get to blogging than I expected today...so let's just anticipate that for Friday. I'll aim to be here by dinner time to run some daytime numbers and Nebraska-Washington.

Oh, I mentioned this last week. For you NBA fans...I'm posting some NBA related stat-type stuff at www.hoopdata.com. Running today is a "catch up" article discussing a few themes from prior articles. If you're not into the NBA, you'll probably be bored. If you're into stat stuff in all sports...we'll see what develops...

More Bowls

2010-12-30T19:31:00.002-06:00

Catching up with a few more bowls...

OKLAHOMA STATE 36, ARIZONA 10
Total Yardage: Oklahoma State 312, Arizona 370
Yards-Per-Play: Oklahoma State 5.1, Arizona 4.2
Passing Lines: Oklahoma State 25-41-0-240, Arizona 32-50-3-280
Turnovers: Oklahoma State 0, Arizona 4
Sloppiness: Oklahoma State 16, Arizona 38
Stat Score: Oklahoma State 17, Arizona 21

The first goofy boxscore we've had to deal with so far. Arizona won time of possession 37.5 to 22.5...which allowed them to win total yardage and stat score in a way that was very misleading. YPP and sloppiness capture the reality of the game better. Oklahoma State was better on a per-play basis, and didn't lose the ball once. Arizona kept moving between the 20's...or losing the ball...or missing field goals (twice). If you pro-rate the yardage to 30 minutes per team, you get Oklahoma State winning 406-296.

So, Oklahoma State was about 110 yards better in the big picture, then had a big turnover edge including a pick six. They weren't 36-10 better...but the right team won and covered. And, Arizona is still a fraud! They weren't ever as good as their best rankings. They closed the season limp. They have an offense that moves the ball between the 20's, but has trouble cashing in vs. quality...or even teams that are just okay.

A temporary reprieve for the Big 12...and possibly bad news for the Pac 10 given that only four teams made bowls.

ARMY 16, SMU 14
Total Yardage: Army 229, SMU 413
Yards-Per-Play: Army 4.0, SMU 6.9
Rushing Yards: Army 199, SMU 111
Passing Lines: Army 2-7-0-30, SMU 23-34-2-302
Turnovers: Army 0, SMU 3
Sloppiness: Army 5, SMU 26
Stat Score: Army 19, SMU 18

Being "flat" often shows up in the turnover department. A lack of focus and energy leads to dumb miscues you don't normally make. SMU wasn't awake for the 11 a.m. kickoff. They had an early QB fumble returned for an Army TD. They turned the ball over two more times in the first half. It was 16-0 Army at the break, in a game that was basically an exact replica of Tulsa-Hawaii to that point. Well, not exact. You remember that one. Hawaii, playing on its home field (like SMU), was TO crazy in the first half and fell behind by 13 points. The difference here is that Tulsa actually has an offense, so they were able to keep scoring. Army has NO offense, so they had to hold on for dear life!

SMU rallied for two touchdowns, and got very close to winning the game. Late drives fizzled, and Army survived with a tight win where they were outgained 6.9 to 4.0 on a per-play basis.

We're still seeing the standard bowl dynamic this year. It's just that more favorites are showing up than usual. Either the superior teams expresses its superiority, of they come in flat and lose the turnover battle. Some years, a lot of flat favorites lead to underdog upsets and covers. This year, Tulsa and Army are the only upsets in games that had spreads of more than a field goal. They won turnovers 2-9, and sloppiness 30-82. That's a good way to say it. Flat means sloppy.

Though, this game is another example of spread teams having trouble playing to expectations when matched against power teams. It's tough to avoid turnovers when you're passing all the time. A better opponent would have spanked SMU pretty bad (the way Hawaii was spanked). Okie State/Arizona matched two pass-happy teams (91 passes between them). Arizona moved between the 20's. Oklahoma State had FIVE field goals, meaning they were doing a lot of that too. Army was so bad offensively they weren't really moving much at all. Great defensive intensity though...and the football gods picked a great bunch of kids to smile on.

SYRACUSE 36, KANSAS STATE 34
Total Yardage: Kansas State 379, Syracuse 498
Yards-Per-Play: Kansas State 6.2, Syracuse 7.7
Passing Lines: Kansas State 18-25-0-258, Syracuse 13-22-0-239
Turnovers: Kansas State 0, Syracuse 0
Sloppiness: Kansas State 7, Syracuse 9
Stat Score: Kansas State 22, Syracuse 34

What a great game. Didn't get to see all of it. But, when I looked up, it seemed like somebody was running a flea-flicker. Was that every play? Seemed like it sometimes. This one brought me back to the old days, where it seemed EVERY bowl was wild and crazy like this...with fired up teams using gadget plays because bowls are supposed to be fun. It's easy to only remember the shootouts from the past, while you forget the yawners. No, every game wasn't Jim McMahon and BYU over SMU. This one had that feel. Wish everyone showed up to play like these guys did.

Not sure why there are stat discrepancies. Syracuse has monster edges that didn't translate to the scoreboard. And, there weren't turnovers or kick return TD's or anything. Best I can tell is that K-State generally had better field position...and was scoring on shorter drives. Not gift distances...but short enough that it spread out the yardage differential over several scoring drives.

Back after North Carolina/Tennessee. Let's just assume NOW that I won't stay up to write about the late game...

Catching up with the Bowls

2010-12-29T20:40:00.005-06:00

We need to run the numbers from Tuesday Night's late game...and the first two from Wednesday. If you're new to the site, "stat score" is 2 times rushing yardage...plus passing yardage...times 0.67...divided by 15. It's a rough ballpark estimate of what a team would normally score with that production. Sloppiness is 5 times giveaways...plus the number of incomplete passes. The lower the better because you want to avoid sloppiness.

IOWA 27, MISSOURI 24
Total Yardage: Missouri 512, Iowa 425
Yards-Per-Play: Missouri 6.0, Iowa 7.3
Rushing Yards: Missouri 78, Iowa 225
Passing Lines: Missouri 41-57-2-434, Iowa 11-21-2-200
Turnovers: Missouri 2, Iowa 2
Sloppiness: Missouri 26, Iowa 20
Third Downs: Missouri 53%, Iowa 55%
Stat Score: Missouri 26, Iowa 29

This was either a really fun game to watch, or a very frustrating game to watch depending on your preferences. There was obviously a lot of offense. But...all the yardage was gained in a way that made you feel sorry for the defenses.

*Missouri was just abused up front. They looked like a bunch of high school kids getting pushed around. Iowa would rush for 225 yards on 37 carries for a whopping 6.1 ypc.

*Iowa's defense sat back in a virtual prevent all night, giving Missouri short little slant passes that they gladly took. It's hard to score only 24 points on 434 passing yards...but that can happen when you're moving between the 20's. You could see why Iowa lost late to Minnesota, lost late to Northwestern, and should have lost late to Indiana (who dropped a TD pass in the end zone on the final play). If you just sit back like that, opponents will drive the field on you. If you're a Missouri fan trying to draw consolation from the big passing yardage...be aware that you basically did what crap teams like Minnesota, Indiana, and NW did vs. this defense.

Iowa was seemingly in control until their embattled head coach lost his mind. Leading 20-17, with a license to steal by simply running up the middle for 6 yards a carry, he (or his offensive coordinator, whoever), called for a deep jump ball pass. Missouri intercepted it because the Iowa quarterback isn't a good passer. Suddenly the see-saw was swinging the other way. It's easy to hold serve when you can run up the middle at will. Why sextuple fault like that?

Missouri scored a TD quickly. Iowa got the ball back...and the teams traded punts. Hoping to drive for the lead, Iowa threw ANOTHER interception. Missouri was up 24-20 (winning and covering -3), and was now driving the field against a defense that sits back and lets you drive. Then, Missouri sextuple faulted (though this was on the QB trying to make something out of nothing rather than a questionable play call). Iowa's defensive player made a FANTASTIC return for the distance that put Iowa back up 27-24. It would end that way because a fourth-down try for Missouri was ruled incomplete on a call that could have gone either way.

Did the right team win? If you believe that rushing should trump passing, it kind of feels like justice was served. But, if you believe that passive teams should stop hoping to get lucky, then it wasn't.

The ESPN announcers made sure to blast critics of the Iowa coach after the game was over. That's right ESPN. When a guy almost loses to horrible Indiana, DOES lose to horrible Minnesota, loses to mediocre Northwestern, then watches his QB throw two interceptions in a game where he was running up the middle at will...the LAST thing anyone would want to do is criticize him. HE'S A GENIUS...LET'S CELEBRATE HIM SOME MORE FOR BARELY SURVIVING A GAME WHERE HE HAD AN ENORMOUS EDGE AT THE POINT OF ATTACK.

Anyway...the stat score is almost right on the money. But...Iowa did get a defensive score in there...so they were on the verge failing to live up to their stats before the big turnaround. Personally, I was embarrassed for the Big 12. I kept having flashbacks to Texas getting pushed around by UCLA (who didn't even qualify for a bowl). It's like most of the league has forgotten the basics of football.

MARYLAND 51, EAST CAROLINA 20
Total Yardage: East Carolina 343, Maryland 478
Yards-Per-Play: East Carolina 4.1, Maryland 8.0
Rushing Yards: East Carolina 32, Maryland 297
Passing Lines: East Carolina 39-62-2-311, Maryland 13-22-2-181
Turnovers: East Carolina 4, Maryland 2
Sloppiness: East Carolina 43, Maryland 19
Third Downs: East Carolina 37%, Maryland 45%
Stat Score: East Carolina 17, Maryland 35

We're in a hunk of games here that matched spread teams vs. more physical inside teams...and some themes will keep repeating themselves.

*If you own the point of attack, you can move the ball more effectively and more safely.

*If you try to make up for weaknesses by throwing a million passes, you're more likley to move between the 20's or 30's before fizzling out, and you're more likely to lost the turnover battle. Also, since most of your turnovers are either interceptions, or QB fumbles on sacks...those are more likely to lead to cheap points.

*If you own the point of attack, you're likely to finish off more drives for TD's simply by bowling defenders over.

*If you own the point of attack, it's easier to protect a lead in the second half because you've probably worn down an undersized opponent. You can even build on your lead (which Maryland did with a 35-17 second half, and Illinois will in a moment with a 22-14 second half).

This is why stat score doubles rushing yardage. And, that's why IT WORKS so well as a general rule (though there will always be goofy games to muck things up).

Big edges for Maryland in all the stuff that matters. Just go scan the numbers if you skipped over them. They tell the story.

Wanted to mention that Ruffin McNeil is the coach of East Carolina. He's the guy that some at Texas Tech wanted to get the Red Raiders job last year because the players loved him. If you watched this game on TV, you know EC was HORRIBLY prepared on both sides of the ball. Passes kept going to receivers who weren't even looking. The defense couldn't deal with a simple Maryland attack. And, we also saw a continuation of one of the most consistent trends of the year...EC absolutely COLLAPSING in the second half. Either they do no conditioning, or opponents are eating their lunch with adjustments. Go look up the boxscores. Only a couple of spots that weren't second half debacles for this defense.

Sometimes a guy the players love is exactly where he needs to be...and promoting him (or hiring him away to run your program) just brings the Peter Principle to life.

ILLINOIS 38, BAYLOR 14
Total Yardage: Illinois 547, Baylor 434
Yards-Per-Play: Illinois 7.6, Baylor 6.0
Rushing Yards: Illinois 306, Baylor 105
Passing Lines: Illinois 18-23-0-241, Baylor 32-44-0-329
Turnovers: Illinois 0, Baylor 2
Sloppiness: Illinois 5, Baylor 22
Third Downs: Illinois 43%, Baylor 27%
Stat Score: Illinois 38, Baylor 24

Is every game the same?! Illinois owned the point of attack...blah blah blah, yada yada yada. Victories in sloppines, third downs, etc...

You get a sense of Iowa's failures when you see what these other guys were doing with their physicality edges. Now, Missouri's obviously a lot better than East Carolina and Baylor. Iowa is supposed to be better than Illinois and Maryland too.

Really embarrassing game for the Big 12 (and Texas, who lost at home to Baylor). We're thus far seeing a continuation of last year, which was pretty ugly for the most part. And, this has to be considered a GREAT sign for the Big Ten that Iowa and Illinois (middle of the pack teams) are playing traditional football so well in the stuff that matters. Might be a sign of things to come for that conference. The Big 12 got so enamored with spread stuff that too many teams have forgotten blocking, tackling, and just rushing the ball like normal people. IT BOGGLES THE MIND that Texas hasn't had a real running game for a few years (outside of quarterback draws and scrambles). Illinois rushed for 6.2 ypc on Baylor...and Iowa rushed for 6.1 on Missouri. NORMAL RUNNING GAMES. It's not that hard to be normal.

Should also mention while I've got time that you're seeing much of what I was talking about in prior years in terms of the game mid-majors play vs. the game superpowers play. East Carolina is a mid major. Baylor is coached by a guy who put Houston back on the map in EC's same conference. Missouri can't get the big beefy athletes that the Big 12 South gets (though they do recruit speed and some leftovers from Texas with Pinkel's pipeline), so they have to play cutesy. Versus power football opponents (and teams, who are WAY off the pace this year in terms of quality nationally), they were outclassed and outplayed. Cutesy mid-majors would get squashed if there ever was a real tournament. Credit to both Boise State and TCU for recruiting BIG and bullying people. They'll have a chance. Cincinnati was a cutesy team last year and got obliterated by Florida.

I'll shoot to be back after Arizona/Oklahoma State. If you're reading this early Thursday and I never came back, look for those stats mid-afternoon along with Army-SMU...

Late edit: This Arizona/Oklahoma State game is taking WAY too long to play. I'll be back after Army/SMU to run the numbers from both games...and to call Arizona a fraud again...

Minnesota Shocks Philly!!

2010-12-28T22:35:00.003-06:00

Can't say I saw that coming. Minnesota was dead weight the last few weeks. But, the longer they hung around tonight, the more you saw them start to believe in themselves. The defense got scary again. Joe Webb started building some confidence. And, having Adrian Peterson back and healthy turned out to be HUGE once the Eagles got down on themselves.

MINNESOTA 24, PHILADELPHIA 14
Total Yardage: Minnesota 337, Philadelphia 331
Yards-Per-Play: Minnesota 5.7, Philadelphia 4.7
Passing Line: Minnesota 17-26-0-176, Philadelphia 25-42-1-224
Turnovers: Minnesota 1, Philadelphia 3
Sloppiness: Minnesota 14, Philadelphia 32
Third Downs: Minnesota 46%, Philadelphia 36%

On this evening, Minnesota was the better team across the board. They've got a roster capable of playing this well when there aren't a million dumb distractions around them. And, Tavaris Jackson could have done what Joe Webb did here if he had just been given the starter's job at the beginning of the season. The whole Brett Favre nonsense flushed the season down the toilet. I'm not saying the Vikes would have been great or anything. But, 9-7 or 10-6 was certainly in reach. Is there that big a difference between what you see from the Vikes and what you see from the Bears when both teams have their heads on straight? The Bears are a #2 seed now.

This result pretty much locks in the NFC brackets unless Atlanta loses to Carolina (two stunners in a row?)

1...Atlanta
2...Chicago (unbelievable)
3...Philadelphia
4...St. Louis/Seattle winner
5...New Orleans
6...Green Bay

Philadelphia's loss tonight not only ruins their chance to get a bye...but brings Green Bay to town for their first round playoff game. BRUTAL! They still would have had the winner of Chicago/Green Bay down the road had they won, but it would have been with an extra week of rest. And they would have been at home in the NFC's Final Four. Now Philly is looking at: vs. GB, at Chicago, at Atlanta if they want to play in the Super Bowl.

BRUTAL!

There was a college game earlier in the evening...

NC STATE 23, WEST VIRGINIA 7
Total Yardage: West Virginia 326, NC State 378
Yards-Per-Play: West Virginia 5.1, NC State 4.7
Passing Lines: West Virginia 22-39-1-196, NC State 28-45-0-275
Turnovers: West Virginia 5, NC State 1
Sloppiness: West Virginia 42, NC State 22
Stat Score: West Virginia 20, NC State 21

If I had more late night energy, I'd talk about how awful it is to have a coaching distraction looming over a school heading into a bowl. West Virginia has a bad offense anyway. It didn't help that everyone knew they were bringing in Okie State's offensive coordinator to coach TWO YEARS FROM NOW, so their current guy who's in over his head could still coach next year. Ugly night in YPP and sloppiness. The defense hung tough all night, forcing field goals when NC State had field position.

Note that NC State is plus one in stat score. Turnovers are worth about 4 points apiece on average. That +4 in turnovers becomes +16 in impact...turning a +1 edge in stat score into a 17 point win. Almost right on the money. A low scoring 21-20 type game became a low scoring semi-blowout because of the West Virginia miscues.

I'm writing this early in the third quarter of Iowa-Missouri. I won't stay up past midnight to write tonight...so we'll take care of the Insight Bowl Wednesday afternoon after the first day game ends. Going to be a fun few days. Thanks to all of you who keep coming back to read!

That Falcon REALLY Knew Something!

2010-12-27T22:58:00.002-06:00

Maybe the falcon that fled the Air Force/Georgia Tech game knew there was impending doom for his NFL namesakes. The Atlanta Falcons played their worst offensive game of the year in a 17-14 loss to New Orleans. One of their two touchdowns was defensive...as Drew Brees handed them a touchdown before rallying to make up for it...allowing ESPN's postgame crew to nominate him for ACTUAL sainthood. Brees made several great plays obviously. His team only made it to 17 points, and some of those were cheap. Perspective people.

NEW ORLEANS 17, ATLANTA 14
Total Yardage: New Orleans 368, Atlanta 215
Yards-Per-Play: New Orleans 5.0, Atlanta 4.1
Passing Lines: New Orleans 35-49-2-296, Atlanta 15-29-0-140
Turnovers: New Orleans 2, Atlanta 2
Sloppiness: New Orleans 24, Atlanta 24
Third Downs: New Orleans 47%, Atlanta 25%

In the craze to see who could exaggerate the most about how great Brees played, ESPN's guys missed the impact of the Saints defense here. They held Matty Ice in check to an extreme degree. They allowed just 4.1 YPP, and just 25% on third down tries. Those stops allowed the Saints to enjoy a 36.5 to 23.5 edge in time of possession. Let's throw in the two takeaways too.

Of course, Atlanta didn't really need the win. They'll earn the #1 seed by beating helpless Carolina next week. New Orleans locks in its Wildcard spot with the win. You have to say that the game stats match that relative mismatch in prioritization.

The NFC playoff picture:
1...Atlanta 12-3 (clinches #1 by beating Carolina)
2...Chicago 11-4 (must play at Green Bay next week)
3...Philadelphia 10-4 (home favorites over Minnesota and Dallas)
4...Seattle/St. Louis winner, guaranteed of #4 seed
5...New Orleans 11-4 (could miraculously steal #1 seed with help)
6...Green Bay, NYG, and Tampa Bay all at 9-6...tie-breakers go in that order.

Note that Chicago would own a tie-breaker over Philly if both are 12-4 or 11-5 because of a heads up victory. Philadelphia would get the #2 seed if they win out and Chicago loses in Green Bay.

It's very likely New Orleans will be visiting the Seattle/St. Louis winner in the first round, which could be like getting a first round bye. That would set up a return trip to Atlanta barring surprises.

Atlanta still doesn't strike me as a powerful #1. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt in terms of saving themselves for an easy win next week to take care of business. We're still talking about a team who had coin flip endings on this field vs. Baltimore and Green Bay, and pretty much the same thing here even with the yardage loss. It's still a name-out-of-a-hat year to me in the NFC right now.

Let me run the stats from those other two games.

Total Yardage: Green Bay 418, Atlanta 295
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 7.1, Atlanta 5.2
Sloppiness: Green Bay 14, Atlanta 4

Total yardage: Baltimore 320, Atlanta 362
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.6, Atlanta 4.8
Sloppiness: Baltimore 24, Atlanta 18

Sloppiness wins, but YPP losses for the Falcons. Baltimore/Atlanta had that wild ending on a Thursday Night...but Joe Theismann was saying Dallas/Arizona was their most exciting telecast of the year. Please! You call a potential Super Bowl preview that has a wild last few minutes...but John Skelton vs. Fibber McGee is the game you're going to remember in the offseason.

Anyway...Atlanta obviously doesn't have #1 seed stats at home vs. playoff caliber opposition. Good news for fans of probably...New Orleans, Philadelphia, possibly Chicago, and possibly whoever gets the other Wildcard.

You could argue this was a proxy for New England/Atlanta if that's the Super Bowl. Plug in Brady for Brees...put the game in Dallas instead of Atlanta. I'll throw in what Aaron Rodgers did too.

Brees: 35-49-2-296, 47% on third downs
Rodgers: 26-35-0-341, 36% on third downs
Average: 31-42-1-319, 42% on third downs
Brady: ??? (you have to guess 320-340 yards and about 45% on third downs)

If this WAS Atlanta at peak intensity, they're going to be in trouble defensively vs. the Pats. I'm not saying they'd be overmatched and embarassed. But, they won't be in control of the game.

Back Tuesday after the bowl games and the NFL bonus end...

I Should've Trusted the Falcon

2010-12-27T19:23:00.003-06:00

Before the game...Air Force fans were enjoying the traditional pre-game bit where a real falcon swoops around the stadium and then flies down to its handler. Except, this time, the falcon just took off out of the stadium for open skies. As if to say, "I'm not sticking around for this crap!"

I watched most of the game anyway...

They eventually found the falcon in downtown Shreveport and coaxed him back. Like others apparently, the falcon realized there's not much to do in Shreveport.

The Air Force-Georgia Tech game itself was tough to watch. The announcers talked about it being a chess match. Yes, a chess match where each guy takes forver to make a move. The game swung on this sequence in the second half:

*Leading 7-6, Georgia Tech had a very impressive, if methodical, 18-play 75-yard drive that ended with a fumble near the goal line. Backup QB's, what are you going to do?

*Air Force went 3-and-out.

*Georgia Tech fumbled the ensuing punt.

*Air Force went 3-and-out.

*Georgia Tech fumbled the ensuing punt AGAIN (this is---fumble-fumble-fumble for GT on three straight plays touching the ball).

*Air Force went 14 yards on the short field for the go-ahead TD (converting a 2-point conversion).

So, Air Force wins with a cheap TD. Now, they would later have a 17-point play drive that ate up most of the fourth quarter clock...but, they missed a field goal that would have iced the win! A painful game to watch...and tough for the announcers to hype the coaching genius when little fundamentals things kept screwing each team up.

AIR FORCE 14, GEORGIA TECH 7
Total Yardage: Air Force 287, Georgia Tech 320
Yards-Per-Play: Air Force 4.0, Georgia Tech 4.5
Turnovers: Air Force 0, Georgia Tech 4
Sloppiness: Air Force 12, Georgia Tech 29
Third Downs: Air Force 33%, Georgia Tech 44%
Stat Score: Air Force 20, Georgia Tech 27

Stat score can get goofy with the option teams. If the opposing defenses aren't very good, then option teams will score more than the yards suggest because they drive the field for scores efficiently. If the other team's defense is good, they'll move between the 20's and underachieve. Both of these defenses see the option in practice all year...so, they had a good idea what to do. It wasn't really a 27-20 type game. But, it was a "Georgia Tech by 7" type game if not for the 4-0 turnovers. Those are usually worth about four points apiece. Move 16 points the other way, and you're close to Air Force's victory margin.

So...if you were rooting for Air Force -3, you were a bit lucky here. The Under was never in doubt though.

See you late tonight after New Orleans/Atlanta ends...

FIU Steals a Win

2010-12-26T23:22:00.003-06:00

What a goofball game!

*Toledo led 21-7 at the half, and was clearly getting the best of it at the point of attack. Both teams had busted one very long run. If you took that off for both, it was a squash for Toledo.

*Toledo drives for a field goal early in the second half to take a 24-7 lead. (They would lose the rest of the game 27-8)

*Down 24-7, FIU returned the kickoff for a TD for 24-14.

*The Toledo quarterback started throwing interceptions left and right...and suddenly it was a game. FIU would have a 23-yard TD drive...a 37-yard TD drive...and a 5-yard field goal drive to forge a 31-24 lead. That's turning a 24-7 deficit into a 31-24 lead without a drive of more than 40 yards!

*The sideline reporter, with an incredibly heads up move that was borderline unethical, reports that FIU has cracked the code for Toledo's play calling (Toledo was using Oregon's funky posterboard picture stuff to signal in plays). An FIU assistant used to be a Toledo assistant...he had cracked the code and was alerting the sidelines, who then signalled to the defense whether a run or a pass was coming. This had immediate credibility because a Toledo offense that was moving at will had suddenly hit a wall and imploded. I say borderline unethical because once you report that on TV...the Toledo people watching on TV can make a change. Scoops are one thing, but influencing the outcome of what you're covering is another.

*Anyway, there was enough time for Toledo to adjust to the sideline report...and FIU went into a late prevent anyway. Naturally, Toledo marched right down the field against the prevent and scored the tying TD. Except...it WASN'T a tying TD because Toledo decided to go for two! Probably with a play their former assistant didn't know about so they were confident it would work. It did. 32-31 Toledo.

*FIU can't do anything on the next drive because of the Toledo pass rush. On 4th and 17, Toledo doesn't apply any pressure...and FIU converts a hook and lateral for roughly 17.0000223 yards. It could have been marked short just as easily, but was enough for the first down. FIU would kick a game winning field goal as time ran out.

Neither team should have been invited anywhere near a bowl. But, they sure put on a compelling show.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 34, TOLEDO 32
Total Yardage: FIU 308, Toledo 436
Yards-Per-Play: FIU 4.7, Toledo 6.2
Rushing Yards: FIU 168, Toledo 305
Turnovers: FIU 1, Toledo 4
Sloppiness: FIU 17, Toledo 32
Third Downs: FIU 15%, Toledo 31%
Stat Score: FIU 21, Toledo 33

You can see why I said "steals" a win. FIU should have lost this game by about two touchdowns. The kickoff return made it one touchdown. The cheap points off the +3 turnover edge put them over the tip for a victory. I wasn't referring to "stealing" signals. Decoding opposition signals is part of the game. Though you could say they successful stole them...and that's certainly a big reason they came from way down to eke out a victory. You don't win many where you convert 15% of your third down tries while allowing more than 300 rushing yards. That's winning a lottery during an eclipse.

I'll probably do two reports Monday, one after the late afternoon bowl...then a nightcap after MNF...

Late Sunday Afternoon

2010-12-26T18:42:00.003-06:00

From the later starts...

TAMPA BAY 38, SEATTLE 15
Total Yardage: Seattle 174, Tampa Bay 439
Yards-Per-Play: Seattle 3.3, Tampa Bay 7.8
Passing Lines: Seattle 14-22-0-174, Tampa Bay 23-28-0-439
Turnovers: Seattle 0, Tampa Bay 0
Sloppiness: Seattle 8, Tampa Bay 5
Third Downs: Seattle 33%, Tampa Bay 54%

It's a shame Tampa Bay isn't in the NFC West, because they'd probably have a record of about 12-4 and nobody would be talking about losing teams sneaking into the postseason. Seattle FINALLY falls out of first place with the loss, sitting at 6-9 bedhind the Rams at 7-8. Tampa Bay moves to 9-6, and is still alive in the Wildcard chase. They'll need to beat New Orleans next week...and get some help elsewhere. Lost in the hubbub of Seattle's playoff chase is what an awful job Pete Carroll is doing of being competitive in his step up from the colleges. This team has just been HORRIBLE in recent weeks. Yes, they've had some injuries. You can still make it past 3.3 YPP when hurt.

INDIANAPOLIS 31, OAKLAND 26
Total Yardage: Indianapolis 370, Oakland 290
Yards-Per-Play: Indianapolis 5.4, Oakland 4.5
Passing Lines: Indianapolis 16-30-2-179, Oakland 29-42-0-210
Turnovers: Indianapolis 2, Oakland 0
Sloppiness: Indianapolis 24, Oakland 13
Third Downs: Indianapolis 36%, Oakland 26%

Joseph Addai came back for the Colts, inspiring them to a 191-80 rushing edge on the ground. Peyton Manning actually didn't play very well. Good news for the Colts that they can win on the road when he's not carrying the whole load. They don't have a chance to really get healthy...but they can get healthier than they have been. That makes them dangerous if they can finish off the division title next week at home against Tennessee. The Colts are 9-6. Oakland falls to 7-8, which is still much better than I thought they'd be.

DENVER 24, HOUSTON 23
Total Yardage: Houston 401, Denver 431
Yards-Per-Play: Houston 7.3, Denver 6.8
Passing Lines: Houston 23-33-1-310, Denver 16-29-1-305
Turnovers: Houston 1, Denver 1
Sloppiness: Houston 15, Denver 18
Third Downs: Houston 12%, Denver 45%

THANK GOD this wasn't the Saturday Night game on the NFL Network. Arizona's John Skelton was hyped after an 11-25-0-178 passing line with 18% on third downs against a bad defense just because his team won by a point late. Tim Tebow posted a 16-29-1-305 passing line...ran for a score...and was much more demonstrative in leading his team to a win. IF THAT HAD HAPPENED ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COMING OF JESUS SCORING THE GAME-WINNING TD...it's just too scary to think, about. It was bad enough to here Don Criqui suggesting Denver may have found their next John Elway (yes, this was a local TV game and I watched the fourth quarter--we used to get Criqui every week when Houston was awful--think he's been doing a lot of Buffalo games this year). Tebow is a bulldog...and hasn't suffered any of the injuries yet that young running QB's eventually suffer. His passing form is AWFUL, as he was constantly throwing off the wrong foot. His accuracy beyond 15 yards just isn't there. But...a fresh and healthy bulldog is capable of winning a lame duck game against the fourth-worst pass defense in league history...playing on his new home field home...barely. It was a fun game though.

GREEN BAY 45, NY GIANTS 17
Total Yardage: NY Giants 386, Green Bay 515
Yards-Per-Play: NY Giants 7.0, Green Bay 7.0
Passing Lines: NY Giants 17-33-4-296, Green Bay 25-37-0-396
Turnovers: NY Giants 6, Green Bay 1
Sloppiness: NY Giants 46, Green Bay 17
Third Downs: NY Giants 33%, Green Bay 46%

Eli is just a turnover machine this year. He's trying to be something he's not...and it's not going to work. Aaron Rodgers had a huge game in his return. He did catch a demoralized defense in a down spot...but he's capable of doing this vs. a lot of teams. Green Bay is more deserving of a playoff spot between these two if you compare everyone at full health. Fitting they were able to win. They still have to beat Chicago next week to solidify their playoff berth. Both teams are 9-6. GB obviously owns a heads-up tiebreaker with NYG now with this win.

CINCINNATI 34, SAN DIEGO 20
Total Yardage: San Diego 313, Cincinnati 371
Yards-Per-Play: San Diego 5.0, Cincinnati 6.3
Passing Lines: San Diego 27-40-1-249, Cincinnati 16-21-0-269
Turnovers: San Diego 2, Cincinnati 1
Sloppiness: San Diego 23, Cincinnati 10
Third Downs: San Diego 46%, Cincinnati 57%

Maybe if TO and OchoCinco had been injured in the preseason, the Bengals might have had a good year. Great stuff here. Very sharp up and down the board. San Diego probably knew they were toast in the playoff picture even though they were still alive. The Chargers either blow people out or lose...making computers love them a lot more than the standings do. San Diego is 8-7, and was eliminated from postseason contention with this loss. Cincinnati is 4-11, and flushed an entire season down the toilet after 2009 was so promising.

No Sunday Night NFL game. There is a bowl between Toledo and Florida International that will now double its ratings because of the postponement in Philadelphia. I'll come back after that college game is over to wrap up the day...

Early Sunday NFL

2010-12-26T15:45:00.003-06:00

From the early kicks...

DETROIT 34, MIAMI 27
Total Yardage: Detroit 275, Miami 425
Yards-Per-Play: Detroit 5.6, Miami 5.1
Passing Lines: Detroit 14-26-0-208, Miami 29-44-2-271
Turnovers: Detroit 0, Miami 3
Sloppiness: Detroit 12, Miami 30
Third Downs: Detroit 33%, Miami 47%

A turnover win for Detroit, though the Lions did better on a per-play basis too. You can see that they were handed some cheap points. You just can't get to 34 points on 275 yards without some field position breaks. Detroit is 5-11 with the win...and they've played most of the year without their #1 quarterback. Miami is 7-8. Though they've played a brutal schedule...and grade out fairly well in a lot of metrics...it's just hard to see them being a real threat with Chad Henne at quarterback. He either moves the ball and makes mistakes...or doesn't move the ball.

WASHINGTON 20, JACKSONVILLE 17 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: Washington 251, Jacksonville 336
Yards-Per-Play: Washington 3.9, Jacksonville 5.2
Passing Lines: Washington 19-39-1-172, Jacksonville 22-38-2-258
Turnovers: Washington 1, Jacksonville 2
Sloppiness: Washington 24, Jacksonville 26
Third Downs: Washington 26%, Jacksonville 41%

The final score probably made Father Mike feel much better. But, he had to endure another ugly offensive game. Grossman was 19-39-1-172, and the team managed just 3.9 yards-per-play. This was basically the kind of game they were playing with McNabb...struggling most of the day and hoping to win a close one late. At least Grossman can do that cheaper! Huge loss for the Jaguars...who needed to win out and hope for an Indy loss to win the AFC South. The loss of their star running back was obviously a killer. Jax rushed for only 78 yards on the day. The Jags fall to 8-7, and can probably kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. Indy probably won't lose at home next week Tennessee even if they lose today to Oakland. Washington is 6-9, which feels about right.

ST. LOUIS 25, SAN FRANCISCO 17
Total Yardage: San Francisco 331, St. Louis 335
Yards-Per-Play: San Francisco 5.6, St. Louis 5.1
Passing Lines: San Francisco 17-34-2-246, St. Louis 28-37-1-275
Turnovers: San Francisco 2, St. Louis 1
Sloppiness: San Francisco 27, St. Louis 14
Third Downs: San Francisco 25%, St. Louis 28%

San Francisco had a punt return touchdown. St. Louis had a safety. Kind of a goofy mix to create this result. Bradford's plusses...he led two long TD drives, and generally kept his head in a big game. Bradford's negatives...he couldn't move the chains consistently, he had a badly timed turnover that he ended up getting away with, and he's still relaying on dink and dunk stuff vs. bad teams to compile his yardage. He's a rookie. I've got to remember to compare him to past rookies rather than to the nonsense that over-optimistic pundits were spouting a few weeks ago. A normal year would have had him going 5-11 in a real division, instead of making a playoff run in a horrible one. St. Louis moves to 7-8, and will play Seattle next week for the NFC West title. San Francisco is finally eliminated from playoff consideration with a 5-10 mark. You have to imagine Mike Singletary will get the axe after the season. If third string quarterbacks are giving you lip on the sideline, you don't have the respect of you players.

NEW ENGLAND 34, BUFFALO 3
Total Yardage: New England 348, Buffalo 369
Yards-Per-Play: New England 5.0, Buffalo 6.2
Passing Lines: New England 15-27-0-131, Buffalo 18-37-3-244
Turnovers: New England 0, Buffalo 7
Sloppiness: New England 12, Buffalo 54
Third Downs: New England 47%, Buffalo 30%

SEVEN turnovers! Haven't seen anything like that in awhile in a pro game. It's not like Tom Brady needs the help! Brady had a very quiet day sitting on the lead, and the Pats kind of coasted to a blowout because of all the free points. Pats move to 13-2, and will be the #1 seed in the AFC. Buffalo is 4-11. Who in the AFC looks like they'll match up well with the Pats in the playoffs? They already dominated Pittsburgh and the NY Jets. They dominated Indy for a half before falling asleep. Baltimore? Baltimore's the same team as Pittsburgh basically, but with a worse defense. Kansas City could catch them napping...the Chiefs will move the ball and score on soft defenses...and NE is playing soft. We'll see. Pats seem to control their own destiny. And, bad weather only helps them because they're so well suited to play in bad weather.

CHICAGO 38, NY JETS 34
Total Yardage: NY Jets 393, Chicago 322
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.8, Chicago 6.0
Passing Lines: NY Jets 24-38-1-269, Chicago 13-25-1-202
Turnovers: NY Jets 2, Chicago 1
Sloppiness: NY Jets 24, Chicago 17
Third Downs: NY Jets 50%, Chicago 33%

Didn't get to see this one. Not the yardage of a shootout...but the high YPP sure make it clear that offenses ruled the day. The Jets had a defensive score to help them out. Sanchez was having a rare good day until fizzling at the end. Don't want to guess too much. Many of you may have seen the game. The stats are pointing to Jets win when you throw in the pick six. We have to guess Chicago got some nice kick returns that set up eash points. 31 of Chicago's 38 points came on drives of less than 60 yards, yet there were only two Jets turnovers. Haven't been impressed with either defense lately. Both were bullied by the Patriots. Neither sparkled today on a per-play basis. Chicago moves to 11-4, and has a chance to make things happen in the NFC brackets. The Jets fall to 10-5, but clinched a playoff spot anyway when Jacksonville lost.

BALTIMORE 20, CLEVELAND 10
Total Yardage: Baltimore 258, Cleveland 280
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 4.4, Cleveland 5.0
Passing Lines: Baltimore 12-19-1-97, Cleveland 16-30-3-178
Turnovers: Baltimore 1, Cleveland 4
Sloppiness: Baltimore 12, Cleveland 34
Third Downs: Baltimore 53%, Cleveland 63%

A mini-version of New England-Buffalo, with the superior team grinding out a road win/cover thanks to a big turnover edge. You get the idea Baltimore could have done more if they wanted to. They didn't need to, so they ran out the clock and sent everyone home 40 minutes before the other games ended. Ravens are 11-4. Cleveland limps to 5-10, and doesn't look anywhere near the team that seemed so promising a half a season ago. Looks like a few guys ran out gas. Colt McCoy threw three interceptions. You can only be a game manager so long. You eventually have to DO THINGS or you don't get to keep playing Kids throw interceptions when they're trying to do things in this league.

KANSAS CITY 34, TENNESSEE 14
Total Yardage: Tennessee 270, Kansas City 458
Yards-Per-Play: Tennessee 4.8, Kansas City 5.9
Passing Lines: Tennessee 14-37-2-213, Kansas City 25-36-1-306
Turnovers: Tennessee 2, Kansas City 2
Sloppiness: Tennessee 33, Kansas City 21
Third Downs: Tennessee 25%, Kansas City 50%

Kansas City's offense exploded in the first half. It was 31-7 at the break, though a pick-six helped them out. Think I saw they were around 300 yards in the first half. This group can blow and go vs. bad or disinterested defenses...that's for sure. Would be cool if they can make the playoffs interesting. Their schedule has been so soft though that they have little experience vs. actual quality. Kansas City moves to 10-5. Tennessee is 6-9, and rumors continue to swirl that Jeff Fisher is on his way out.

The prime time game has been postponed because of horrible weather in Philadelphia. So, I won't be back by halftime of the Sunday Night game like usual. Let's shoot for having the late stats up by 10 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CT. See you then...

Bad Teams Play Great Xmas Game

2010-12-25T22:01:00.002-06:00

The NFL Network announcers were acting like it was the Super Bowl. I'm sure it was a lot of fun to see in person...and nobody can deny that the last five minutes were exciting. But...

*It was two losing teams...

*Using their third string quarterbacks in the second half...

*In a game where one team had two defensive TD's, and STILL needed a missed extra point by an opponent to give them a chance to win.

I'll admit it is kind of fun seeing Jerry Jones lose games like this. If he celebrated in the dark, like most owners...karma wouldn't bring these things his way.

ARIZONA 27, DALLAS 26
Total Yardage: Dallas 382, Arizona 271
Yards-Per-Play: Dallas 5.0, Arizona 5.8
Passing Lines: Dallas 23-37-2-199, Arizona 11-25-0-178
Turnovers: Dallas 3, Arizona 0
Sloppiness: Dallas 29, Arizona 14
Third Downs: Dallas 44%, Arizona 18%

Was Skelton of Arizona the "Player of the Game?" He only led his team to 13 offensive points, while converting just 18% of third downs. He passed for less than 200 yards against a defense that let Rex Grossman throw four touchdown passes last week. He did maintain his composure on the game winning drive (against a bad defense). Keep things in perspective.

I have to say I was surprised about the 5.8 YPP for Arizona when I saw the box. Didn't seem like it was that much while eyeballing the game. Time of possession was 38-22 for Dallas. So...let's give Skelton credit for contributing to the great YPP number. But...it only led to 13 points.

Both teams are now 5-10 on the season. Arizona is more like a 3-13 team that got an easy schedule. Dallas is probably about 7-9 caliber with Kitna, 9-7 with Romo. They weren't destined for greatness this year even if Romo didn't get hurt. The team, and the media had GREATLY overestimated their chances coming into the season.

As I'm typing this, the NFL Network is showing the Arizona coach talking to his players in the locker room. They're about to give the game ball to the Dallas kicker I think...

We haven't run the numbers from Friday Night's bowl game yet. Let's get caught up with that.

TULSA 62, HAWAII 35
Total Yardage: Tulsa 531, Hawaii 550
Yards-Per-Play: Tulsa 8.4, Hawaii 6.6
Passing Lines: Tulsa 17-32-0-343, Hawaii 30-56-5-479
Turnovers: Tulsa 2, Hawaii 6
Sloppiness: Tulsa 25, Hawaii 56
Shots of a Guy Dressed as a Turtle: 17 (same guy, over and over)
Shots of the Beach: 20
Shots of Shocked Hawaii Fans: 132

Okay, I made up estimates...and I only watched half the game. You dress like a turtle and the cameras love you apparently.

The first half was amazing, as Tulsa had two interception returns for TD's and a 3-yard TD drive. It was 27-14 at the half...and 21 points were incredibly cheap. That either meant that Hawaii was going to come back...or that Tulsa's offense was finally going to break through and live up to its stat billing (5th in the nation coming in). The dam broke...and Tulsa started scoring real points to go along with their cheap points...and the slaughter was on.

Tulsa was a 10-point underdog, and won by 27. You're basic 37-point cover! A dog was due to get the money...and it did so in the extreme here. Also a big Over, with 102 points being scored against a very high Vegas total of 74.

Oh, we now have SEVEN teams who have gained more than 500 yards in their bowl games. Anyone still want to say defenses are ahead of offenses in bowls? There will be some games where great defenses shut down mediocre offenses who probably did get rusty. Generally, good offenses can deal with the layoff.

Back to a normal schedule Sunday for the NFL. I'll try to have early write-ups done by halftime of the late afternoon action. See you then. Hope everyone had a great Xmas. Get well soon Father Mike!

Bowl Favorites now 6-0 as SDSU swamps Navy

2010-12-23T22:43:00.004-06:00

Did you like that? Swamps Navy on the field that was under water the day before?

Not much interesting happened, so the headlines have to carry the day. Very impressive performance from San Diego State, who became the fifth bowl winner to top 500 total yards...you know...in the postseason where that layoff just KILLS the timing of offenses...(only Troy's 602 topped SDSU's 555)

SAN DIEGO STATE 35, NAVY 14
Total Yardage: Navy 382, San Diego State 555
Yards-Per-Play: Navy 5.8, San Diego State 8.7
Passing Lines: Navy 8-15-1-147, San Diego State 18-23-0-276
Turnovers: Navy 1, San Diego State 0
Sloppiness: Navy 12, San Diego State 5
Third Downs: Navy 38%, San Diego State 70%
Stat Score: Navy 28, San Diego State 37

It should have been a little closer, and more high scoring based on the stat score. Navy had a long drive that ended on the one-yard line. They basically "earned" about6.8 of the 7 points in a TD drive but gut a goose-egg on the scoreboard. Still. 555-382 and 8.7 to 5.8 are blowout stats...so it's not like the wrong team won or covered.

We've seen enough to draw some conclusions about the Mountain West Conference, and probably Boise State.

*Boise State is truly a top notch team (no surprise there). I'm not sure where they'd finish in the SEC if they played a round robin...but I'm comfortable this year thinking of them as a top ten team rather than somebody around 15th-20th that played a crap schedule and ran up the score.

*The Mountain West bowl caliber teams are better than the Big East bowl caliber teams by quite a good bit. The MW (before its pending explosion) is really the "sixth major," and the Big East has fallen to a mid-major.

Why can we say that?
SDSU 555, Navy 382
BYU 514, UTEP 233
Boise State 543, Utah 198

The only blemish for the MW is Utah...and they ran into Boise State rather than the 5th best team in the Pac 10 or something...the normal opponent in the Las Vegas Bowl but there weren't enough Pac 10 qualifiers.

An underdog will cover eventually. So far, favorites have been much superior, and in the mood to play.

There was an NFL exhibition tonight...where the favorite needed to win, and the underdog was motivated to lose so they can stay in the slot that gets the #1 draft pick. Unsurprisingly, these were the numbers...

PITTSBURGH 27, CAROLINA 3
Total Yardage: Carolina 119, Pittsburgh 402
Yards-Per-Play: Carolina 2.4, Pittsburgh 6.0
Passing Lines: Carolina 10-23-1-45, Pittsburgh 23-32-0-293
Turnovers: Carolina 2, Pittsburgh 2
Sloppiness: Carolina 23, Pittsburgh 19
Third Downs: Carolina 23%, Pittsburgh 33%

Gordon Solie should have been the announcer...

There's not a sense of urgency to run the Hawaii Bowl numbers after the game ends because the colleges are then off until Sunday...and real teams of off until Monday. So, I'll take Xmas Eve off from blogging, and come back late Xmas Night with Dallas-Arizona and Tulsa-Hawaii numbers.

Merry Christmas!

See you Xmas night...

Boise Blasts Utah

2010-12-22T22:37:00.003-06:00

If you didn't watch any of this game, and just heard the final score...be aware that it was basically a replay of the 52-24, 48-21 type games you've alreadys seen. It's just that sloppiness took points off the board instead of putting points on the board.

BOISE STATE 26, UTAH 3
Total Yardgage: Utah 198, Boise State 543
Yards-Per-Play: Utah 3.7, Boise State 7.1
Passing Lines: Utah 10-24-0-91, Boise State 29-40-1-341
Turnovers: Utah 3, Boise State 4
Sloppiness: Utah 29, Boise State 31
Third Downs: Utah 15%, Boise State 44%

Boise State lost the ball through the end zone on a fumble from the 2-yard line...had a FG blocked...dropped a couple of TD passes. Utah had its own miscues.

BYU 514, UTEP 233...final score BYU 52-24
Troy 602, Ohio 308...final score Troy 48-21
Boise 543, Utah 198...final score Boise 26-3

That's +281, +294, and +345 in yardage differential...but Boise only made it to 26 points rather than making a run at 50...and only won by 23 instead of 27-28. It was still a replay of what we've already seen.

It's funny how Boise and TCU find so many ways to link up in the public's consciousness. We have another one here, with both facing Utah this year.

Total Yardage
TCU 558, Utah 199
Boise 543, Utah 198

Passing Lines
TCU 22-27-0-381
Boise 29-40-1-341

Final Scores
TCU 44, Utah 7
Boise 26, Utah 3

Another piece of evidence that tonight could have been much worse for Utah. The games were yardage clones...but Boise didn't win 44-7.

These games weren't truly equal of course. TCU had to play AT Utah, while this was a neutral site game for Boise. And, TCU had to face Utah's first string quarterback, while Boise got to face the backup. That's consistent with the notion that TCU is the superior team. It's obviously a small sample. But, it's not really a small sample that's got hidden surprises in it. TCU was probably better than Boise State this year. These are additional data points.

The forgotten crime is that Utah was ranked #5 in the polls before the TCU game. UTAH WASN'T REMOTELY A TOP TEN TEAM THIS YEAR AT ANY TIME! The Utes clearly established that they were light years behind TCU and Boise given that they were squashed without playing a true road game. Stick this Utah team in the SEC...and play 12 neutral site games...how many teams would Utah finish ahead of? If you're answering honestly, you know it's barely any. It turned out to be a very bad misread by pollsters, and many computers too.

Back Thursday Night after Carolina/Pittsburgh. Hopefully they'll get Navy/SDSU in from San Diego. Footage looked horrible from the stadium with all the flooding. Was looking forward to that game...so hopefully they get to play it some time in the next week...or in field conditions that aren't an absolute joke.

Louisville Sneaks past Southern Miss

2010-12-21T22:42:00.002-06:00

Louisville looked completely ill-prepared to start the game...almost like a comedy routine it was so bad. They were down in yardage about 119 to negative 10 after the first few drives...and 14-0 on the scoreboard. They won the rest of the game 31-14. But, some of that was just Southern Miss taking its turn with miscues. A mangled punt attempt set up a cheap Louisville score. A fumble set up another. Then, in the second half, Louisville returned a kickoff for a TD.

LOUISVILLE 31, SOUTHERN MISS 28
Total Yardage: Southern Miss 386, Louisville 286
Yards-Per-Play: Southern Miss 5.2, Louisville 4.7
Passing Lines: Southern Miss 21-33-0-227, Louisville 20-32-0-176
Turnovers: Southern Miss 1, Louisville 1
Sloppiness: Southern Miss 17, Louisville 17
Stat Score: Southern Miss 24, Louisville 18

Southern Miss wins stat score by six. The non-offensive TD makes it Louisville by one, in a game they won by three. Tempting based on those numbers to say the wrong team won. Southern's screw-ups were legit...but showed up on special teams rather than within the ebb and flow of offense and defense. Evenly matched teams. Vegas had it near 3 and 57 on the opener, which is almost right on the money. Sentiment tended to favor Southern Miss and the Over, which is a split.

It wasn't beautifully played...but at least we finally had a close game that was worth watching until the end! I think both teams played to their perceptions, so we didn't really learn much about the conferences. Big East and Southern Miss aren't power conferences...and these teams showed why in terms of inconsistency of execution (Bret "the Hitman" Hart after his concussion).

So, Beef O' Brady's is just an updated Bennigan's? We needed another place with chicken wings and potato skins. Not enough of those in the world. Back late Wednesday with the Utah/Boise State numbers...

Bears Win Blowout

2010-12-20T23:15:00.003-06:00

Turned out to be a fun game to watch, as fears of playing on rock solid ice were unfounded. I'm sure it was unpleasant to be tackled to the ground...but we've all seen worse in our day...

CHICAGO 40, MINNESOTA 14
Total Yardage: Chicago 293, Minnesota 273
Yards-Per-Play: Chicago 5.1, Minnesota 4.5
Passing Lines: Chicago 14-24-1-189, Minnesota 20-33-3-159
Turnovers: Chicago 1, Minnesota 5
Sloppiness: Chicago 15, Minnesota 38
Third Downs: Chicago 20%, Minnesota 27%

It's hard to explain this one. Chicago wasn't as dominant as the score made it seem...yet they were. Their kick returners LOVED sprinting on this field against defenders uncertain of their footing. The Bears defense LOVED flying at the quarterbacks and forcing turnovers (I did feel a little bad for Favre getting hurt again...but, IF HE'D JUST FREAKING RETIRE THE INJURIES WOULD STOP!) So, even though total yardage and YPP weren't suggesting a Chicago blowout...and even though neither team could do much on third downs...the Bears controlled the last 50 minutes of the game.

Sloppiness tells that best, along with the punt return TD for Hester. Actually, turnovers are usually worth about 4 points apiece. Consider that +16 for the Bears. A special teams TD moves it to +23 in a game they won by 26. Jay Cutler deserves credit for keeping his head about him on a night that could have seen a turnover implosion for two teams instead of just one.

Chicago moves to 10-4, and clinches a playoff berth. They still have a chance to earn a #2 seed and a first round bye...but will have to beat the NY Jets in a short preparation week before ending the season in Green Bay. They really needed tonight's game, and played that way. Minnesota falls to 5-9, and are nominees to no-show their last two games at Philadelphia and Detroit.

Back late Tuesday Night with the final numbers from Southern Miss-Louisville in the Beef O'Brady Bowl. That's either my kind of place...or the kind of chain restaurant The Simpsons made fun of many years ago when Mo opened a restaurant and got burned from having the fry basket on his head.

Green Bay Provides Blueprint for Beating Pats

2010-12-19T23:28:00.002-06:00

They couldn't finish the building...but at least they showed everyone the blueprint!

*Keep the ball away from Brady (time of possession 41-19)
*Move the chains (57% on third downs)
*Pray for decent weather so you can move the ball on the Pats defense (three long TD drives in weather that was fairly nice compared to recent cold weather games).
*Convert an onside kick to give yourself an extra possession (started the game that way)
*Don't throw a pick six! (oops)

Green Bay was in position to win this one. You can't really say they "should" have, because New England still won yards-per-play 5.8 to 4.6. The upset was theirs...and they fell just short.

NEW ENGLAND 31, GREEN BAY 27
Total Yardage: Green Bay 369, New England 249
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 4.6, New England 5.8
Passing Lines: Green Bay 24-37-1-226, New England 15-24-0-136
Turnovers: Green Bay 2, New England 0
Sloppiness: Green Bay 23, New England 9
Third Downs: Green Bay 57%, New England 40%

Time of possession looms large here. If you give both teams the ball for 30 minutes, New England wins total yardage 393-270. Plus 123 yards and a 2-0 turnover edge gets you pretty close to the Vegas spread of two touchdowns. New England was the better team. Green Bay neutralized that with ball control.

Worth noting here that there were TWO lessons regarding the Pats play in horrible weather the past two weeks:

1) Tom Brady is fine in awful weather because he's going to find an open guy and get him the ball. The deep threat to Moss is gone...but those bombs don't connect in blizzards anyway. This offense is more weather-proof than any I've ever seen.

2) The defense may NEED that 12th man in terms of bad weather to be effective. This defense has been mediocre at best most of the season. They shut down NYJ and Chicago in bad weather...but seemed vulnerable and unimpressive tonight.

So...New England is hell on wheels in bad weather...but they can be had if opponents play clean football and move the chains. Well, New England's offense is hell on wheels ALL THE TIME right now. Tonight showed the road to the Super Bowl could have a few more potholes than it seemed a couple of days ago.

Great game...back after Bears/Vikings Monday Night...

Late Sunday Afternoon

2010-12-19T19:32:00.002-06:00

From the three late games...

ATLANTA 34, SEATTLE 18
Total Yardage: Atlanta 266, Seattle 234
Yards-Per-Play: Atlanta 3.6, Seattle 4.2
Passing Lines: Atlanta 20-35-1-168, Seattle 18-33-2-143
Turnovers: Atlanta 1, Seattle 3
Sloppiness: Atlanta 20, Seattle 30
Third Downs: Atlanta 47%, Seattle 33%

Hardly anyone got to see this one...so it's worth nothing that Atlanta didn't play nearly as well as the final score suggests. Seems like we've been saying that a lot about them. The offense was pretty awful considering it was Seattle's horrible defense they were facing. The Falcons did repeatedly take advantage of field position though. A defensive TD helped pad their lead. This was a VERY high scoring game for only 500 yards and a combined 7.8 YPP! Atlanta moves to 12-2, and can sleepwalk to the #1 seed with two home games left (one against Carolina). Well, New Orleans next week probably won't let them sleepwalk. Atlanta can take next week off and still win the #1 seed by winning their home finale vs. Carolina. Seattle stays tied for first in the awful NFC West despite a 6-8 record.

Seattle 6-8
St. Louis 6-8
San Francisco 5-9
Arizona 4-10

Yes, the 49ers are still alive...

NY JETS 22, PITTSBURGH 17
Total Yardage: NY Jets 276, Pittsburgh 378
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 4.8, Pittsburgh 5.2
Passing Lines: NY Jets 19-29-0-170, Pittsburgh 23-44-0-231
Turnovers: NY Jets 0, Pittsburgh 0
Sloppiness: NY Jets 11, Pittsburgh 21
Third Downs: NY Jets 46%, Pittsburgh 64%

The Jets returned the opening kickoff for a TD...then added a late safety. Take away those nine points, and it's 17-13 Pittsburgh, which would be more in line with the stats you see. Of note:

*Mark Sanchez wasn't as helpless here as he's been in recent weeks, but he only put 13 pints on the board against Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh was without Palamalu. He's still a warm-weather QB not well suited to playing in the Northeast.

*Pittsburgh loses swagger and something else whenever Palamalu is out of the lineup. Amazing how consistently that holds up for a defensive player. He really is that impactful.

*The Jets defense actually looked pretty shaky here in context. Pittsburgh's offense had had trouble recently driving the field for points. They're, in fact, one of the worst in the league at that. Here they had two long TD drives, and died close to the end zone when the game ended. The Jets defense is still behind last year's form by a good bit.

*Big Ben got some mobility back...he had a big scramble late in the game. Either his fracture was numb, or he's getting healthier.

The Jets move to 10-4 help lessen the pressure they were under in the playoff race. Pittsburgh is 10-4, and falls back into a tie with Baltimore for first place in the AFC North. Pittsburgh owns the tie-breaker with the better divisional record.

OAKLAND 39, DENVER 23
Total Yardage: Denver 235, Oakland 502
Yards-Per-Play: Denver 4.6, Oakland 7.5
Passing Lines: Denver 8-16-0-129, Oakland 15-26-2-238
Turnovers: Denver 1, Oakland 3
Sloppiness: Denver 13, Oakland 26
Third Downs: Denver 16%, Oakland 18%

The score was a bit misleading until very late. If you were scoreboard watching, it seemed that Tim Tebow must be having a good game because Denver kept scoring (and he had that TD run highlight that the networks kept showing). You can see the numbers weren't very impressive. He couldn't convert third downs, and the team as a whole didn't have much production. All 23 points were on relatively short drives because Oakland was busy giving the ball away three times. Oakland moves to 7-7...and posts really monster stat edges when things are going well. Denver falls to 3-11.

It's very hard to see Tebow as an NFL QB. He's a bulldog...and QB isn't a bulldog position. Bulldogs who try to play QB suffer concussions, separated shoulders, ankle sprains, and badly timed interceptions. I could see a Wildcat type thing...or a guy to use on gadget plays to catch passes and stuff. If you watched footage today...the awkwardness in the pocket is impossible to miss.

Back after Green Bay/New England to wrap up the day...

Early Sunday NFL

2010-12-19T16:02:00.002-06:00

I was going to do separate boxes for some of these games...but the early schedule was HUGE, and it took forever just to log the stats on my trusty graph paper. Will do them in one long line. Maybe there will be time for more commentary tonight or tomorrow.

KANSAS CITY 27, ST. LOUIS 13
Total Yardage: Kansas City 383, St. Louis 224
Yards-Per-Play: Kansas City 5.2, St. Louis 3.3
Passing Lines: Kansas City 15-29-1-173, St. Louis 21-43-2-155
Turnovers: Kansas City 1, St. Louis 2
Sloppiness: Kansas City 19, St. Louis 32
Third Downs: Kansas City 29%, St. Louis 35%

Cassel was able to come back and play 10 days after his appendectomy. He seemed to be moving gingerly in the limited highlights I saw. Ugly numbers for Bradford. All those articles two weeks ago about how great he was playing seem pretty dumb now. He was facing the 32nd ranked schedule in the league up until then. Not so great against New Orleans and Kansas City. The Rams fall to 6-8, and it would be 4-10 vs. a real schedule. Kansas City is 9-5, and has faced a very soft schedule themselves (30th before today).

TENNESSE 31, HOUSTON 17
Total Yardage: Houston 323, Tennessee 359
Yards-Per-Play: Houston 4.3, Tennessee 6.3
Passing Lines: Houston 35-53-1-293, Tennessee 14-24-1-212
Turnovers: Houston 1, Tennessee 1
Sloppiness: Houston 23, Tennessee 15
Third Downs: Houston 38%, Tennessee 27%

Texans kind of lost the will to love after last Monday Night's game. That's more evident in YPP than anything else. Houston is 5-9, and probably looking at a housecleaning in the offseason. Tennessee is 6-8...but has looked more like 4-12 caliber over the past several weeks. Don't put too much weight in late season lame duck results.

INDIANAPOLIS 34, JACKSONVILLE 24
Total Yardage: Jacksonville 356, Indianapolis 376
Yards-Per-Play: Jacksonville 5.8, Indianapolis 5.9
Passing Lines: Jacksonville 24-38-1-289, Indianapolis 29-39-0-221
Turnovers: Jacksonville 2, Indianapolis 0
Sloppiness: Jacksonville 24, Indianapolis 10
Third Downs: Jacksonville 38%, Indianapolis 38%

Very even game...with both teams also scoring on kick returns. Indy's came at the very end on an onside kick attempt, and got them the cover. Not much separating these teams today. Turnovers were the difference-maker. Both teams are 8-6 now, and tied for first place in the AFC South. Indy controls its own destiny, and will win the division if they win out at Oakland and home vs. Tennessee.

CAROLINA 19, ARIZONA 12
Total Yardage: Arizona 218, Carolina 303
Yards-Per-Play: Arizona 4.1, Carolina 4.6
Passing Lines: Arizona 17-33-1-175, Carolina 13-19-0-126
Turnovers: Arizona 2, Carolina 1
Sloppiness: Arizona 26, Carolina 11
Third Downs: Arizona 26%, Carolina 26%

Carolina didn't need to tank to protect its #1 seed for the top draft pick. Cincinnati was trying vs. Cleveland. So, the Panthers get a win and are STILL in the driver's seat. Arizona is 4-10, but vs. an easy schedule. More like a 3-13 kind of season. Carolina is 2-12. Will the head coaches be around next year?

CINCINNATI 19, CLEVELAND 17
Total Yardage: Cleveland 278, Cincinnati 397
Yards-Per-Play: Cleveland 6.5, Cincinnati 5.8
Passing Lines: Cleveland 19-25-0-219, Cincinnati 14-23-0-209
Turnovers: Cleveland 0, Cincinnati 0
Sloppiness: Cleveland 6, Cincinnati 9
Third Downs: Cleveland 25%, Cincinnati 46%

Cincinnati won time of possession 38-22, which is why the stats don't really add up. Cleveland was doing more per play, but hardly had the ball. Nice game from Colt McCoy, considering he got 17 points on the board with sharp stats in just 22 minutes. Third downs were an issue though. Kid quarterbacks take awhile to learn the hang of moving the chains. Cincinnati is 3-11, Cleveland falls to 5-9.

BUFFALO 17, MIAMI 14
Total Yardage: Buffalo 282, Miami 326
Yards-Per-Play: Buffalo 5.1, Miami 4.9
Passing Lines: Buffalo 16-26-1-211, Miami 33-45-1-261
Turnovers: Buffalo 1, Miami 2
Sloppiness: Buffalo 15, Miami 22
Third Downs: Buffalo 33%, Miami 33%

Bills still trying. Miami still can't trust its quarterback. Buffalo moves to 4-10, but has been covering spreads very consistently the past two months. Miami falls to 7-7, and was doomed from the beginning with a killer schedule. Actually, both of these teams had played top five schedules coming in. Miami's still Wildcard caliber..and Buffalo's probably a 6-10 or 7-9 caliber team this year in the big picture. Not a fan of Chan Gailey, but he really did bring about improvement this year.

PHILADELPHIA 38, NY GIANTS 31
Total Yardage: Philadelphia 418, NY Giants 364
Yards-Per-Play: Philadelphia 7.1, NY Giants 5.1
Passing Lines: Philadelphia 21-35-1-221, NY Giants 23-39-1-264
Turnovers: Philadelphia 3, NY Giants 2
Sloppiness: Philadelphia 29, NY Giants 26
Third Downs: Philadelphia 36%, NY Giants 47%

Normally a 31-10 fourth quarter lead is safe...which is why it seemed okay to tell Mrs. Blog that one of her favorite players, Eli Manning, was having a good day before she ran off to her aerobics class. She still doesn't know. Amazing comeback from the Eagles. Michael Vick has to figure out a way to produce with less sloppiness, or the whole postseason is going to be cardiac kid stuff. Philly takes over the NFC East lead with a 10-4 record. New York falls to 9-5, and would lose a tie-breaker to Philly with an 0-2 heads up record. Big three-way Wildcard race for two spots between NYG, New Orleans, and Green Bay.

DALLAS 33, WASHINGTON 30
Total Yardage: Washington 341, Dallas 434
Yards-Per-Play: Washington 5.4, Dallas 6.2
Passing Lines: Washington 25-43-2-286, Dallas 25-37-0-300
Turnovers: Washington 3, Dallas 0
Sloppiness: Washington 33, Dallas 12
Third Downs: Washington 36%, Dallas 38%

Fun game to watch. Grossman was his normal self. Enough production to earn a chance, so much sloppiness that he can't win if it's up to HIM to earn the victory. Dallas was dominant through the first 60% of the game, then kind of fell asleep on both sides of the ball for awhile. Tough to win YPP by that much, AND win turnovers 3-0, but still have to eke out a victory on a late field goal. The formula we were using yesterday in the bowls would have suggested a 19 point win for the Cowboys. 25-18 in stat score, then 12 more points for the 3-0 turnover edge. The two are tied for last place in the NFC East with 5-9 records.

DETROIT 23, TAMPA BAY 20 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: Detroit 433, Tampa Bay 403
Yards-Per-Play: Detroit 6.6, Tampa Bay 6.3
Passing Lines: Detroit 23-38-0-252, Tampa Bay 22-33-0-227
Turnovers: Detroit 0, Tampa Bay 0
Sloppiness: Detroit 15, Tampa Bay 11
Third Downs: Detroit 50%, Tampa Bay 41%

Sometimes the lame duck games lack defense. Two offenses moving up and down the field and putting stuff up on the board. Detroit moves to 4-10, and they've played better than that most of the year. Tampa Bay falls to 8-6...in a division where 10-6 may only be good enough for third best.

BALTIMORE 30, NEW ORLEANS 24
Total Yardage: New Orleans 269, Baltimore 356
Yards-Per-Play: New Orleans 4.3, Baltimore 5.7
Passing Lines: New Orleans 29-46-1-242, Baltimore 10-20-0-148
Turnovers: New Orleans 2, Baltimore 0
Sloppiness: New Orleans 27, Baltimore 10
Third Downs: New Orleans 38%, Baltimore 35%

New Orleans had three long TD drives, but did nothing else the rest of the way...leading to 24 points but hardly any yardage production. Odd mix. Joe Flacco stayed out of the way and let a 208-27 rushing edge take Baltimore to victory.

Finished just in time for Jets/Steelers to hit halftime!

See you by halftime of Packers/Pats with the late afternoon stats...

Troy, and Troy Again

2010-12-18T23:25:00.004-06:00

That was the scoring summary of the first half...as Troy scored, and scored again, and kept right on sprinting up the field through hapless Ohio. It was 38-7 at the half.

Boo Jackson came in at QB for Ohio to start the third quarter after what was an apparent unannounced one-half suspension for messing up his classwork. He didn't travel with the team...stayed in Ohio to finish an internship to maintain his eligibility...then raced into the huddle to start the second half after staying on the sidelines in the first half. ESPN's Robert Smith spent the next hour questioning why Frank Solich waited to long to "go to" Jackson. We have two choices:

*Solich is the most insane person in the history of the planet, and waited until he was down 38-7 to bring in his starting quarterback.

*The starting quarterback had been suspended for a half for academic reasons.

Seriously ESPN...give us a break...you can't deduce a suspension just because it wasn't formally announced?

TROY 48, OHIO 21
Total Yardage: Ohio 308, Troy 602
Yards-Per-Play: Ohio 5.9, Troy 7.9
Passing Lines: Ohio 14-22-2-209, Troy 33-43-0-382
Turnovers: Ohio 2, Troy 0
Sloppiness: Ohio 18, Troy 10
Stat Score: Ohio 18, Troy 37

Again stat score plus turnovers puts us in the neighborhood of the final score. The formula for stat score is in the post below if you're new to the site. Turnovers are worth about 4 points typically. Give Troy 8 points for the 2-0 turnover advantage, and you get 45-18...in a game with a final score of 48-21.

Ohio was behind the eight-ball trying to deal with Troy's high octane up tempo offense indoors on a fast track. Their best hope was to play ball control against the horrible Troy defense. They couldn't. And, the game was pretty much over early in the second quarter.

This doesn't necessarily cancel out Northern Illinois' big win for the MAC earlier in the day. But, you can see why Northern dominated the MAC this year! They were the only decent team in a lousy league. Maybe Troy's success signals good things for Middle Tennessee and Florida International in later bowls. But, honestly, this felt a lot more like a matchup edge in ideal conditions for Troy's style against a 1950's coaching mindset rather than conference dominance for the Sun Belt.

There are still TV announcers who will tell you that the layoff before a bowl disrupts offensive timing, and makes it easier for defenses. You need to get that thought out of your head! The winners gained 503, 514, and 602 yards today, on 6.0, 7.9, and 9.1 yards-per-play. Struggling offenses will have troubles vs. the best defenses. It's just not true that all offenses can't deal with extra practice time! I've seen announcers talk about the layoff hurting offenses during games that ended 45-41.

See you by halftime of the late starts with early Sunday stats. A fun day ahead in the NFL...with several very important games...but other spots where inexperienced quarterbacks are getting some playing time...

The REAL Northern Illinois showed up

2010-12-18T20:24:00.003-06:00

This was the game many expected to see against Miami of Ohio in the MAC Championship. Instead, against a better opponent, Northern finally showed what they were capable of to a national TV audience.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 40, FRESNO STATE 17
Total Yardage: N. Illinois 503, Fresno State 362
Yards-Per-Play: N. Illinois 9.1, Fresno State 5.0
Passing Lines: N. Illinois 17-27-0-300, Fresno State 28-38-0-288
Turnovers: N. Illinois 0, Fresno State 1
Sloppiness: N. Illinois 10, Fresno State 15
Stat Score: N. Illinois 32, Fresno State 19

Another relative yawner. You could tell early that Northern showed up loaded for Bulldog. Fresno won a mini-bowl vs. Illinois to end the regular season...and they didn't seem to bring any special emotion to this one. It was 23-10 at halftime...and Northern would build on that lead instead of seeing a comeback in what was a pick-em game in Las Vegas. Shouldn't have been in retrospect. A lot of computer methodologies that didn't know about off-field distractions (Northern changing coaches) pegged this one right...at least in terms of the winning team.

More evidence that it's good to choose an assistant that all the players love to be an interim coach after a change with the head man. Worked for Texas Tech last year with Ruffin McNeil. Don't go with the smartest guy...or the guy most likely to be a coach in waiting. Just go with the guy everybody loves so you get a huge effort. A Wisconsin assistant will take over next year...for Jerry Kill who left Northern Illinois for Minnesota after the loss in the MAC Championship game.

Big stuff from Northern...and a good win for the struggling MAC that had been showing very poorly in bowls the past few years. A strike against Fresno State and the WAC, the conference of Boise State.

Stat score was reasonably close here. Numbers show 32-19 without turnover adjustments. Turnovers are usually worth about 4 points each. Give four to Northern off a 1-0 edge, and you get 36-19. Final score was 40-17. Not quite as pretty in the first game...but the margin works out. BYU was +23 in stat score. Give then 4 points for the 3-2 turnover edge and it's +27, in a game they won by 28.

I know there are much fancier methodologies that try to account for EVERYTHING to almost match the final score. This is an easy formula that gets you in the neighborhood without a spreadsheet and trying to give a value to every single play from scrimmage. 2 times rushing...plus passing...times 0.67...divided by 15.

Back after Troy/Ohio to wrap up the day...

BYU 52, UTEP 24

2010-12-18T17:02:00.003-06:00

Our first bowl game is in the books! Wanted to let you know because you probably stopped watching early in the third quarter...if you were watching at all...

BYU 52, UTEP 24
Total Yardage: BYU 574, UTEP 233
Yards-Per-Play: BYU 6.0, UTEP 4.2
Passing Lines: BYU 26-36-2-295, UTEP 14-33-3-245
Turnovers: BYU 2, UTEP 3
Sloppiness: BYU 20, UTEP 34
Stat Score: BYU 33, UTEP 10

Hard to express in words how bad UTEP's defense was here. BYU just kept marching down the field easily. The "stat score" (2 times rushing...plus passing...times 0.67...divided by 15) shows a blowout. But...UTEP wasn't able to get many stops at all, so all yardage led to the end zone for the most part. That means a lot more than 33 points!

Figured it would be smart to do a quick study to see which other defenses had similar stat profiles to UTEP since we've seen what that defense will do in a bowl against somebody who knows what they're doing.

UTEP: 72nd in total defense vs. the 129th ranked schedule...5.7 YPP

Nevada: 66th in total defense vs. the 86th ranked schedule...5.7 YPP
N-western: 92nd in total defense vs. the 74th ranked schedule...5.9 YPP
Troy: 93rd in total defense vs. the 149th ranked schedule...5.8 YPP
Tulsa: 107th in total defense vs. the 98th ranked schedule...6.2 YPP
E. Carolina: 120th in total defense vs. the 62nd ranked schedule, 6.4 YPP

I'll also add in Middle Tennessee, because strength of schedule gives them a huge hit:
MTSU: 71st in total defense vs. the 165th ranked schedule...5.1 YPP

Obviously the ranking and YPP would worsen significantly for MTSU against a normal schedule.

That's everyone who ranked worse than 50th in BOTH total defense and strength of schedule this season. There were some other shaky defenses who at least played tough schedules...or average defenses who played crap schedules. We'll build those profiles if we need to as the bowls progress.

If you're a dog player, think carefully about NW (+) vs. Texas Tech, Tulsa (+) at Hawaii (on Hawaii's home turf), and East Carolina (+) vs. Maryland. Troy plays later tonight vs. Ohio...and Ohio may not know what they're doing. Middle Tennessee has Miami of Ohio after New Year's...and Miami of Ohio is similar to Ohio in terms of lack of offense.

Note that Nevada is actually a favorite with its bad defense. They play BC just before Oregon-Auburn a few weeks down the road.

Something to think about. Big dogs can make sense in the big picture because some of the favorites no-show mentally. BYU didn't no-show, and this was never a game.

Another good bowl performance for the Mountain West...and this was just a mid-range team in that league (though BYU started playing MUCH better when coach Mendenhall went back to calling defensive signals). Big black eye for CUSA...but UTEP's not really a bowl caliber team, so it's hard to penalize the whole league for their invitiation. Utah will get the next appearance for the Mountain West Tuesday when they face Boise State in Las Vegas. Next up for CUSA is Southern Miss on Tuesday vs. Louisville.

Back after Northern Illinois/Fresno with the key stats...

San Diego Smacks SF...Update on Funhouse Mirrors

2010-12-16T22:41:00.002-06:00

First, the game numbers from a blowout...

SAN DIEGO 34, SAN FRANCISCO 7
Total Yardage: San Francisco 192, San Diego 374
Yards-Per-Play: San Francisco 3.8, San Diego 5.6
Passing Lines: San Francisco 19-29-1-131, San Diego 19-25-0-266
Turnovers: San Francisco 1, San Diego 0
Sloppiness: San Francisco 15, San Diego 6

San Diego continues to close strong...and San Francisco continues to be much worse than real teams, in a division where there just aren't any real teams. Systematic workmanlike rout for the Chargers. It's not that far off SF's loss at Green Bay two weeks ago:

Yardage: San Francisco 269, Green Bay 410
YPP: San Francisco 5.3, Green Bay 6.0
Turnovers: San Francisco 1, Green Bay 0
Sloppiness: San Francisco 20, Green Bay 9

San Diego had better differentials in the yardage...but they're getting healthy and Green Bay has been shorthanded for weeks. Basically...GB and SD are playoff caliber teams right now, even if it's only Wildcard caliber. San Francisco is light years away from Wildcard caliber.

Let's update the Funhouse Mirror League, which is a grouping that isolates strength of schedule issues. The NFC West, AFC West, and NFC South all had easier than normal schedules most of this season. We added in Chicago and the NY Giants about a month ago because they had also played very easy schedules to that point. Chicago's slate has toughened up, so we won't include them as a pretender right now (21st ranked schedule of 32 teams according to USA today). The Giants are at 28th, so we'd better leave them in.

I'm now officially going to take the NFC South out. The fact that they drew the NFC West had polluted early records. Most of that has come out in the wash now. Atlanta has played the 17th ranked schedule, Tampa Bay the 20th, and Carolina the 13th. I will leave New Orleans in because they've played the 32nd ranked (easiest!) schedule...which is stunning for a first place team. They're supposed to have tougher schedules the next year!

FUNHOUSE MIRROR LEAGUE (Inflated records causing illusions)
New Orleans 10-3 (32nd ranked schedule)
NY Giants 9-4 (28th ranked schedule)
Kansas City 8-5 (30th ranked schedule)
San Diego 8-6 (26th ranked schedule before SF)
Oakland 6-7 (24th ranked schedule)
St. Louis 6-7 (29th ranked schedule)
Seattle 6-7 (31st ranked schedule)
San Francisco 5-9 (25th ranked schedule before SD)
Arizona 4-9 (27th ranked schedule)
Denver 3-10 (23rd ranked schedule)

I'd guess you can knock two wins off of every team, at least 1-2, if they had played a league average schedule. That's what's scary about how bad SF, Arizona, and Denver are. They've posted bad records vs. easy schedules!

Matt Millen was talking about New Orleans tonight, saying to keep an eye on them. They're beating bad teams. Let them beat Baltimore and Atlanta before telling everyone to keep an eye on them.

There are concerns that a team with a losing record is going to make the playoffs because nobody in the horrible NFC West is any good. That actually seems likely now. And, even if somebody "surges" to 8-8, we're still talking about somebody who will be outmatched by playoff caliber teams.

Why do I say that? Let's look at what the NFC West contenders have done lately vs. playoff contenders outside of their division:

San Francisco lost to San Diego 34-7
St. Louis lost to New Orleans 31-13
San Francisco lost to Green Bay 34-16
Seattle lost to Kansas City 42-24 (at home)
St. Louis lost to Atlanta 34-17 (at home)
San Francisco lost to Tampa Bay 21-0 (at home)
Seattle lost to New Orleans 34-19
Seattle lost to the NY Giants 41-7 (at home, but with backup QB)

That takes us back several weeks (in the Funhouse Mirror League, games vs. REAL teams are few and far between!). No wins. No losses by as close as a touchdown. No losses by as close as 14 points! That's an 0-8 record with loss margins from low to high of 15, 17, 18, 18, 18, 21, 27, and 34.

And, that's no games against Super Bowl favorites New England, Pittsburgh, or Philadelphia. Atlanta's in there once and won by 17 on the road. Do you have the NFC West contenders 18-21 points behind playoff teams in your Power Ratings? You might want to think about that...particularly before the opening weekend of the postseason. The NFC West champion will be hosting most likely New Orleans, Green Bay, or the NY Giants.

There are three bowl games set for Saturday. I'll check in Saturday night with some boxscore stats...

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

2010-12-13T23:09:00.003-06:00

Baltimore led 28-13 in the fourth quarter, and I was thinking to myself...at least the Texans won't lose a heartbreaker THIS week. I won't have to write the same old thing about how this team continues to break the hearts of its fans week in and week out.

SURELY BALTIMORE'S STRONG OFFENSE CAN PROTECT THIS LEAD AGAINST THE HORRIBLE HOUSTON DEFENSE...SURELY THE BALTIMORE DEFENSE WILL MAKE A PLAY OR TWO AND SEND EVERYONE WEARING RED JACKETS HOME SO THEY CAN BURN THEM AND NEVER WEAR THEM AGAIN (didn't the owner and President Bush senior look like bowl committee members from the Santa Bowl or something?).

No...of course not...it's a Houston Texans game. There has to be a dramatic finish that breaks the hearts of their fans.

BALTIMORE 34, HOUSTON 28 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: Baltimore 253, Houston 489
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 4.1, Houston 5.7
Passing Lines: Baltimore 22-33-0-190, Houston 31-62-2-378
Turnovers: Baltimore 0, Houston 2
Sloppiness: Baltimore 11, Houston 41
Third Downs: Baltimore 53%, Houston 38%

For you newcomers, sloppiness is giveaways plus incomplete passes. The lower the score the better because you want to avoid sloppiness.

A few things to talk about...

*If you didn't watch the game, you may not be aware that Baltimore didn't score any offensive points after halftime. They returned the opening kickoff of the second half for a TD, to turn a 21-7 lead into 28-7. After blowing that whole advantage, it was a pick-six that won the game in overtime.

*Gaining 253 yards on 4.1 yards-per-play vs. Houston in good scoring conditions is HORRIBLE. The Ravens were still drained from the tough game vs. Pittsburgh. That can explain part of it. Still an awful offensive performance in terms of raw production (53% on third downs and a sloppiness score of 11 aren't awful).

*You'll recall that Baltimore was horrible in the second half LAST week, handing away a win on a Flacco fumble. He CLEARLY still hasn't figured out how to execute when it matters. I kept pointing that out last year...and figured year three would be the time things started to click. It's December. Nothing's clicking yet. Pittsburgh has a great defense...so struggling vs. them in cold weather isn't necessarily a disaster. It's not championship caliber performance...but it's not a disaster. Scoring no offensive points in the second half vs. the Houston defense is a disaster. If you watched the latter stages of this game, you saw that "Oh my god I'm blowing it" look on Flacco's face. Just shouldn't be there in December of year three.

*Houston did rally to tie, but they did so with a huge sloppiness score. Even before the pick six they were over 30 because of all the passes. You just can't win throwing 60 passes in a game. It's a sign of weakness, not a sign of strength. Teams with weaknesses find ways to lose. You can't blame the defense here. A feast or famine passing attack ultimately created a famine ending.

Baltimore moves to 9-4, and is in great shape to earn a Wildcard behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Houston falls to 5-8, and isn't going to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record even if they win out. Tough to ask for Kubiak to get fired because he never has horrible teams. He's stuck spinning his wheels with an approach that can't work. You'd think ownership would ready to try something different.

In the other Monday game...

NY GIANTS 21, MINNESOTA 3
Total Yardage: NY Giants 395, Minnesota 164
Yards-Per-Play: NY Giants 6.0, Minnesota 2.7
Passing Lines: NY Giants 22-37-2-182, Minnesota 17-35-1-103
Turnovers: NY Giants 2, Minnesota 1
Sloppiness: NY Giants 25, Minnesota 23
Third Downs: NY Giants 23%, Minnesota 12%

Very sloppy game from the offenses, which makes some sense given the disruptions. You can see the high sloppiness scores...and poor third down marks (5 of 29 combined for the two teams).

That 2.7 YPP almost felt like a tank job from the Minnesota offense. The defense seemed to be trying, outside of allowing a few big runs...so, who knows.

Other recent outings at 2.9 or below from NFL offenes:
2.6 for Cincinnat at the NYJ on Thanksgiving Night (tank job)
2.8 for Oakland at Pittsburgh (bad body clock, week before SD, possible tank job)
2.7 for Seattle at Oakland (week after big divisional win, road game at non-conference opponent, possible tank job)
2.4 for Carolina vs. Chicago (too early in the season for a tank job).

So, it's possible to be that bad...and we are talking about Tavaris Jackson finding out late in the week he'll probably start...then having a goofy postponement...then playing vs. a defense with a good pass rush...so let's give the Vikes offense the benefit of the doubt.

THEY WERE JUST HORRIBLE, THEY WEREN'T IN THE TANK!

Minnesota falls to 5-8 like Houston, and can hopefully close the book on the Favre saga. I can't believe ESPN ran Favre's whole press conference...after he DIDN'T play in a game they barely showed up for. If he retires, are we going to get 20 minutes of comments every week NEXT year about what it's like to not play? Maybe Matt Millen can call me directly every week and remind me how gutty Favre is. JEEZ.

The NY Giants are 9-4, tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East, but trailing in the tie-breaker because of a heads up loss. Those two teams meet this week in New York with the division on the line.

No more football until Thursday Night, so back with you then in the blog. If you're an NBA fan, hoopdata.com will be posting some mini-articles from me this week on their home page. If you're into NBA stats, it's a dream site that's easy to navigate...and it looks like they're going to be posting article-type material soon in more abundance after taking a little break.

See you Thursday Night after the NFL game...

Eagles Beat Cowboys

2010-12-12T22:48:00.002-06:00

Finally a great game. A lot of big plays. Plenty of drama. Good show.

PHILADELPHIA 30, DALLAS 27
Total Yardage: Philadelphia 429, Dallas 349
Yards-Per-Play: Philadelphia 7.8, Dallas 5.8
Passing Lines: Philadelphia 16-26-2-258, Dallas 24-35-2-239
Turnovers: Philadelphia 2, Dallas 2
Sloppiness: Philadelphia 20, Dallas 21
Third Downs: Philadelphia 36%, Dallas 27%

The Eagles had a couple of huge plays, which drove their YPP way up. Pretty even game otherwise. That big play potential is a heckuva tie-breaker. Still, you saw some vulnerability from the Eagles in terms of the playoffs. Dallas is still just about a .500 caliber team with Kitna at quarterback. The Eagles weren't significantly better outside of those two gamebreakers. Maybe Atlanta or New Orleans won't allow the gamebreakers.

Went through for fun and counted up what all NFL teams have done the last seven games. It's easy to get the full season standings stuck in your head when recent form is a better indicator. Seattle's playing like a 2-5 team rather than a playoff contender. Cincinnati is 0-7. Tennessee is 1-6. Cleveland has a better record than Indianapolis.

7-0: Atlanta
6-1: New England, New Orleans
5-2: Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia
4-3: Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Miami, NYJ, Kansas City
3-4: Indianapolis, Buffalo, St. Louis, Dallas
2-5: Detroit, Washington, Seattle
1-6: Tennessee, Denver, Arizona
0-7: Cincinnati, Carolina

The four teams at six games pending Monday are: Baltimore 4-2, NY Giants 4-2, Minnesota 3-3, Houston 1-5.

Didn't realize Houston had lost five of six. They always seem to be there at the end...finding a way to lose. Maybe the gods of football will smile on them in a rare prime time home game.

Make sure your current thoughts on teams come close to matching that 7-game reality. I think those marks are painting a pretty accurate picture.

See you late Monday Night...

Worst Late Card Ever!

2010-12-12T19:57:00.002-06:00

This was supposed to be one of the strongest late afternoon schedules of the whole season. New England-Chicago was a game everyone was looking forward to. Kansas City-San Diego was huge in the AFC West...and those two teams are capable of playing better than their records. Miami-NYJ was suddenly compelling because the Jets are a train wreck and train wrecks are compelling. St. Louis-New Orleans was important in two different divisions and in the Wildcard race. Denver-Arizona was the dog, but some guy named John Skelton out of Fordham was starting for Arizona, which at least added some curiosity points.

ALL OF THE GAMES WERE AWFUL!!

The only game that was even close was Miami-Jets...but it was close because both teams were about equally inept. Miami's 10 points came off Jets turnovers, and their QB was just 5-19-0-30 for the day even though weather conditions were manageable. The Jets were 6-21 on third downs, even though it was constantly VITAL for them to convert third downs.

Maybe the Sunday Night game will deliver...

The numbers...(if you're new to the site, "sloppiness" is 5 times giveaways...plus incomplete passes...the lower the number the better because you want to avoid sloppiness).

NEW ENGLAND 36, CHICAGO 7
Total Yardage: New England 475, Chicago 185
Yards-Per-Play: New England 6.1, Chicago 4.4
Passing Lines: New England 27-40-0-351, Chicago 12-26-2-138
Turnovers: New England 0, Chicago 4
Sloppiness: New England 13, Chicago 34
Third Downs: New England 63%, Chicago 37%

You probably know that the game was played in a blizzard...and that Tom Brady doesn't mind playing in blizzards. He was lucky that a few probable interceptions were dropped by the Bears. But, he was still fantastic, and that would have only made a one-sided game a little closer. The Pats are playing as well lately as they did in their 2007 season. They showed halves of that vs. Detroit and Indy...and now full games vs. Pittsburgh, the NYJ, and Chicago. They're much better than what "playoff caliber" means for the other contenders, and will stay that way barring injuries. You get the sense they'd coast to 500 yards and 50 points in good conditions right now. They had 33 at the half here.

NEW ORLEANS 31, ST. LOUIS 13
Total Yardage: St. Louis 327, New Orleans 345
Yards-Per-Play: St. Louis 5.5, New Orleans 4.9
Passing Lines: St. Louis 18-32-2-191, New Orleans 25-40-2-213
Turnovers: St. Louis 3, New Orleans 3
Sloppiness: St. Louis 29, New Orleans 30
Third Downs: St. Louis 9%, New Orleans 68%

Closer than the score made it seem. The Rams were about to make it a game late in the second quarter when Sam Bradford had a pick returned the length of the field for a Saints score. Kind of like Army-Navy yesterday but it was a pick-six instead of a fumble. You can see that both teams were okay at compiling yardage...but horribly sloppy in the process. Only big Saints edge was on third downs, where you can see the difference between a veteran in a big game (11 of 16) and a rookie in a big game (1 of 11).

The Rams have played a very weak schedule, softest in the league by a few measures heading into the weekend. The excitement about Bradford and this coach is a bit premature. Versus a normal schedule they'd probably be 4-9 or 3-10, yet I saw the coach getting congratulated on a few shows this week...and writers raving about Bradford. Denver's 3-10 and just fired their coach. Arizona is 4-9 and just changed quarterbacks. Perspective people. Bradford is coming along well for a rookie. He threw two picks today and was one of 11 on third downs in great scoring conditions.

New Orleans moves to 10-3 and is probably going to be a Wildcard. St. Louis is 6-7, but is still tied for first place in their division with Seattle.

SAN FRANCISCO 40, SEATTLE 21
Total Yardage: Seattle 361, San Francisco 336
Yards-Per-Play: Seattle 5.6, San Francisco 6.0
Passing Lines: Seattle 27-42-4-277, San Francisco 17-27-0-241
Turnovers: Seattle 5, San Francisco 0
Sloppiness: Seattle 40, San Francisco 10
Third Downs: Seattle 40%, San Francisco 41%

A sloppines blowout, because most of the other stats were even. Seattle just kept handing the ball laway, and the Niners kept saying thank you. Alex Smith returned for the Niners, and will probably get too much credit for this result. He did have a good game...but not the type of game that usually puts 40 points on the board. And, Seattle's defense is horrible, so the air comes out of the numbers if you pencil in a real opponent. San Francisco is now just a game out of first at 5-8, and the league will have to sweat having a losing team reaching the postseason. All three of Seattle, St. Louis, and SF face playoff contenders next week (Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Diego respectively).

MIAMI 10, NY JETS 6
Total Yardage: Miami 131, NY Jets 286
Yards-Per-Play: Miami 2.3, NY Jets 3.5
Passing Lines: Miami 5-19-0-30, NY Jets 17-44-1-199
Turnovers: Miami 3, NY Jets 2
Sloppiness: Miami 29, NY Jets 37
Third Downs: Miami 20%, NY Jets 28%

You'd have thought this was the game played in the blizzard. It was just a bit rainy, but not in a way that should have devastated offense. CBS switched my market (and I'm guessing much of the nation) to this game when New England had a huge lead on the Bears. Not sure why. Just showcased incompetence to a national audience, instead of showcasing the team that's stepped forward as Super Bowl favorites. Miami's numbers are just abysmal...yet they won! Mark Sanchez is a warm-weather quarterback. And, his receivers seemed to be so shocked when the ball actually hits them in the hands that the can't hold on. He sure wasn't getting much help today. But...some of that was his own fault. The Jets are still 9-4, but have to face Pittsburgh and Chicago on the road the next two weeks (more cold weather). These guys were legit back in September. They've basically been a lucky version of Detroit or Cleveland since. Until the last two weeks when their luck turned.

ARIZONA 43, DENVER 13
Total Yardage: Denver 288, Arizona 357
Yards-Per-Play: Denver 3.9, Arizona 5.0
Passing Lines: Denver 19-41-3-156, Arizona 15-38-0-146
Turnovers: Denver 6, Arizona 1
Sloppiness: Denver 52, Arizona 28
Third Downs: Denver 20%, Arizona 25%

Only 1% of the country got to see this on TV I think...so it's important to look at the stats instead of the final score. Another sloppiness blowout. Arizona's passing line was awful...but they were being handed free points all day. Could Denver have been revolting after their coach got fired? Odd to see such a lay down after a change (remember how Minnesota and Dallas responded). But, this was a non-conference road game after a tough loss divisional road game, which meant zero priority in the big picture. Don't fall in love with Arizona because you think Skelton somehow engineered a 43-13 win. Not a horrible debut by any means. Just a misleading score.

SAN DIEGO 31, KANSAS CITY 0
Total Yardage: Kansas City 67, San Diego 426
Yards-Per-Play: Kansas City 1.6, San Diego 6.2
Passing Lines: Kansas City 9-20-0-19, San Diego 18-24-1-219
Turnovers: Kansas City 0, San Diego 2
Sloppiness: Kansas City 11, San Diego 16
Third Downs: Kansas City 0%, San Diego 73%

KC lost its quarterback to an appendectomy earlier in the week. They just curled up into a shell and took their beating, hoping he can come back for the St. Louis game. The Chiefs had a two-game lead coming in, so they could afford this result. San Diego is still alive at 7-6, and will be favored in its last three games. KC is 8-5, and has a manageable schedule assuming Cassel can come back at full speed.

Back after Philly/Dallas to wrap up the day...

Early Sunday NFL

2010-12-12T15:22:00.002-06:00

From early action...

JACKSONVILLE 38, OAKLAND 31
Total Yardage: Oakland 476, Jacksonville 385
Yards-Per-Play: Oakland 7.8, Jacksonville 6.6
Passing Lines: Oakland 22-33-1-323, Jacksonville 11-22-1-151
Turnovers: Oakland 2, Jacksonville 1
Sloppiness: Oakland 21, Jacksonville 16
Third Downs: Oakland 46%, Jacksonville 41%

The only early game played in sunshine is the only game that had much scoring to it. Oakland had enough raw stats to win it...but lost the turnover battle, and allowed a long kickoff return at 31-all that put Jacksonville in field goal position. Oakland looked like they backed off to allow a TD run knowing that the Jaguars were in good shape to just kick a game winning FG. But, the Jaguars were busting long runs, so it may have been a clean play. Jax rushed for 234 yards on the day. Oakland falls to 6-7, but was a longshot for the playoffs anyway with their schedule. They're better than most people thought they'd be, so things are moving in the right direction. Jacksonville is 8-5, and still a game ahead of Indianapolis in the AFC South heading into a head-to-head meeting next week. They sure don't have a playoff caliber defense right now though.

PITTSBURGH 23, CINCINNATI 7
Total Yardage: Cincinnati 190, Pittsburgh 354
Yards-Per-Play: Cincinnati 3.9, Pittsburgh 5.5
Passing Lines: Cincinnati 20-32-3-156, Pittsburgh 21-33-0-231
Turnovers: Cincinnati 3, Pittsburgh 0
Sloppiness: Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 12
Third Downs: Cincinnati 25%, Pittsburgh 46%

Pittsburgh's only touchdowns were defensive, with two pick sixes off the increasingly hapless Carson Palmer. And...it's hard to be increasingly hapless when you started the haplessness early in the season. Steelers did own stats...and used their offense to run clock for the most part. Big Ben was hobbled, and had somebody land on his ankle mid-game to make things worse. Pittsburgh just wanted to get a win and get it over with. So, a solid game in that regard...even if the offense only amounted to three field goals. Pittsburgh is 10-3, but has yet to show an offense that should scare anybody in January. Cincinnati is 2-11, one year removed from a playoff appearance.

BUFFALO 13, CLEVELAND 6
Total Yardage: Cleveland 187, Buffalo 323
Yards-Per-Play: Cleveland 4.1, Buffalo 4.8
Passing Lines: Cleveland 12-20-1-82, Buffalo 14-23-0-131
Turnovers: Cleveland 3, Buffalo 1
Sloppiness: Cleveland 23, Buffalo 14
Third Downs: Cleveland 20%, Buffalo 35%

Cold and rainy, but only 37% according to the forecast, so it wasn't as bad here as other places saw. Mostly chilly and drizzly everywhere in the early games, whether it was Buffalo, Pittsburgh, or Washington. Well, a bit dryer than drizzly but wetter than dry (lol). Just another version of Cincinnati/Pittsburgh without the pick sixes. Similar numbers. Or, in other words, Cleveland with Delhomme is as bad as Cincy right now, regardless of what the records say. Too bad Colt McCoy got hurt. Buffalo is 3-10, and clearly isn't interested in the #1 pick. Clevleand is 5-8. It looks more like 7-9 caliber with McCoy, and 4-12 with anyone else lately. Not suggesting that McCoy is a star or anything. The offense was moving the ball with him at least.

DETROIT 7, GREEN BAY 3
Total Yardage: Green Bay 258, Detroit 286
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 4.2, Detroit 4.4
Passing Lines: Green Bay 22-37-2-192, Detroit 10-22-2-96
Turnovers: Green Bay 3, Detroit 2
Sloppiness: Green Bay 30, Detroit 22
Third Downs: Green Bay 16%, Detroit 20%

Aaron Rodgers suffered a concussion in the second quarter when his head hit the artificial turf hard. He was having a poor game before then. But, you figure he would have done enough to win the game if he had stayed in. Flynn was helpless. A great QB like Rodgers can make up for not having much of a running game vs. lesser foes. Flynn couldn't...so the monsters on the Detroit front line just kept wreaking havoc with him. The Lions managed a fourth quarter TD to snatch a win. Oh, this is one reaason the league is trying to protect quarterbacks. You get 7-3 games with a #2 guy facing a #3 guy. Indoors on a fast track! If QB's aren't protected, the appeal of the league diminishes significantly because you get too many games like this. Green Bay falls to 8-5, and takes a big hit in the Wildcard race with a road game at New England up next. Detroit is 3-10, and keeps covering spreads even with the ugly record.

ATLANTA 31, CAROLINA 10
Total Yardage: Atlanta 327, Carolina 288
Yards-Per-Play: Atlanta 4.5, Carolina 5.0
Passing Lines: Atlanta 20-34-1-200, Carolina 15-25-1-76
Turnovers: Atlanta 1, Carolina 2
Sloppiness: Atlanta 19, Carolina 20
Third Downs: Atlanta 52%, Carolina 23%

Atlanta didn't play as well as the score made it seem. But, they may have been focused on running clock after jumping out to the 17-0 lead. Workmanlike win for the 11-2 Falcons. They're in great shape to earn the #1 seed in the NFC because of a soft remaining schedule. Carolina is 1-12...and keeps holding off the Bengals for the top pick in the draft.

TAMPA BAY 17, WASHINGTON 16
Total Yardage: Tampa Bay 365, Washington 399
Yards-Per-Play: Tampa Bay 7.0, Washington 6.1
Passing Lines: Tampa Bay 15-25-0-262, Washington 22-35-0-211
Turnovers: Tampa Bay 2, Washington 1
Sloppiness: Tampa Bay 20, Washington 18
Third Downs: Tampa Bay 41%, Washington 37%

Washington scored what would have been the game-tying TD in the final moments, but blew the extrra point. Scoreboard watching made it seem like a defensive struggle. The YPP and yardage say otherwise. So, the turnovers must have kept some points off the board. Sorry Father Mike. The Skins are STILL finding new ways to lose! We thought they had run out of ways last season. Washington falls to 5-8 on the year, as the laws of math are catching up to them after some early close wins. Tampa Bay is 8-5, and can sneak back into the playoff picture if the Giants and Packers slump home. New Orleans is in great shape to get one Wildcard. The Bucs host Detroit and Seattle the next two weeks, then finish at New Orleans. Green Bay's loss to Detroit today brought Tampa Bay right back into the mix.

Back by halftime of the NBC game with late afternoon stuff..

Tennessee Rallies for Cover!

2010-12-09T22:39:00.002-06:00

Weird game...and not nearly as entertaining as "Fringe." Though, the last couple of minutes were exremely interesting for Vegas bettors...as Indianapolis -3 hung in the balance until the very last play of the game. Tennesse vultured the cover with a meaningless touchdown.

Indy jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first half. Tennessee didn't really do anything until they were way behind. I don't think they had the ball down by only one score at all. They cut it to one score but then Indy went right down and added points. To me this was more about how far these teams had fallen. Indy's recent weaknesses magically disappeared for a week, which is an indictment of the Titans. Tennessee won the latter 55% of the game 28-9, which is a strike against Indy's ability to protect a lead.

The stats end up pretty even because of Tennessee's comeback. When it MATTERED, the Colts owned the numbers though.

INDIANAPOLIS 30, TENNESSEE 28
Total Yardage: Indianapolis 399, Tennessee 365
Yards-Per-Play: Indianapolis 5.9, Tennessee 5.7
Passing Lines: Indianapolis 25-35-0-312, Tennessee 28-39-0-244
Turnovers: Indianapolis 0, Tennessee 2
Sloppiness: Indianapolis 10, Tennessee 21

The Colts are back over .500 with a 7-6 mark, and will win their division if they run the table. A home game next week with Jacksonville is huge. The Jags won the first meeting down in Florida. Jacksonville will be 8-5 if they beat Oakland Sunday.

Tennessee falls to 5-8, and hasn't looked very good since before the Vince Young soap opera imploded team dynamics. There's probably been a fork in their back for awhile.

What Indy and Jax have after next week:
Indy: at Oakland, vs. Tennessee
Jax: vs. Washington, at Houston

Funny how the mood of Oakland may determine who wins the AFC South. Oakland is the type to tank a trip East, but then show up strong for a home game against somebody like Indy. If that happens, the Jaguars are in good shape. If the opposite happens, Indy's in good shape.

No football Friday...and I'm not going to pop in Saturday Night with Army/Navy stats. Not enough interest in that game outside of loyalists. Will be back for the normal Sunday sequence in the NFL. I am planning nightly stuff during the bowls. Those won't get started until Saturday December 18th.

See you Sunday...

Not much of a Game of the Year

2010-12-06T22:40:00.002-06:00

ESPN really had to stretch things to make this seem like one of the epic battles coming in. I know it was two teams who were both 9-2. But, it would have been just as honest to say...

"The team that almost lost to Minnesota, and should have lost to Denver, and got shutout at home by Green Bay, then had to go overtime to beat Detroit...and go overtime again to beat Cleveland...before scoring a lucky last second win vs. Houston...HAS COME TO NEW ENGLAND WITHOUT THEIR DEFENSIVE SIGNAL CALLER to face the team that looked crappy in the first half last week vs. Detroit...on the heels of looking crappy in the second half two weeks ago against Indianapolis...FOR THE GAME OF THE YEAR IN THE NFL!"

I'm glad I missed most of the pre-game show. There's only so much hype I can swallow. Obviously a game matching two 9-2 teams is important. But...the Jets are playing more like a 7-4 or even 6-5 type team the past two months. New England has flashes of extreme brilliance mixed in with some head scratcher sequences.

Tonight...New England established early that they would have enough flashes of brilliance to beat the team that hasn't impressed much in two months.

NEW ENGLAND 45, NY JETS 3
Total Yardage: NY Jets 301, New England 401
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 4.6, New England 7.0
Passing Lines: NY Jets 17-33-3-149, New England 21-29-0-304
Turnovers: NY Jets 3, New England 0
Sloppiness: NY Jets 31, New England 8
Third Downs: NY Jets 25%, New England 40%

Total yardage doesn't really tell the story. The YPP and sloppiness blowouts give you a better sense of the game. And, frankly, New England didn't need the turnovers. They were going to drive for points from wherever they got the ball. Well, just 4 of 10 on third downs...they'd do enough to win easily, if not 45-3.

Mark Sanchez is still a WARM WEATHER QUARTERBACK, so it's hard to see how he's going to work out with the Jets. Remember he got shut out by Green Bay on a windy day at the Meadowlands. This was basically a shutout too. He was awful, and kept blaming his recievers for not catching balls that were thrown in bad places. That's not a good sign for the rest of the year. Your teammates remember when you were emphatically blaming them on national TV during your own lousy performance.

New England moves to 10-2, and has to get ready for a road challenge at Chicago this Sunday. Tough defense...lousy turf...possibly lousy weather again...so a really good test for evaluating the Pats championship potential this year. The defense is playing better than it had been...and there aren't any other AFC offenses who look anything like this right now.

The Jets are 9-3, and still in good shape in the Wildcard race. But, they have to realize that they haven't played well in weeks. The Thanksgiving win over Cincinnati was the traditional Turkey-Night-Tank-Job from a visitor. That's it the past couple of months. The defense has taken a couple of steps backward from last year. Mark Sanchez isn't showing much development, particularly in challenge spots. I listed the recent results earlier. Such a fine line between 9-3 and 6-6. No prizes for looking good in a couple of September games.

It's dangerous to draw conclusions off a peak performance. If you imagine all the AFC playoff teams at their peak right now...New England seems to be a cut above everyone else. Let's not forget they squashed Pittsburgh on the road recently. Maybe it won't be a name out of a hat season in the AFC...the way it was looking back when New England lost at Cleveland, and almost blew the Indianapolis game. Maybe this is the year New England wins the trophy that destiny yanked from their hands after the 2007 season...

One big turnover...and Pittsburgh Steals a Win

2010-12-05T22:44:00.002-06:00

After about 55 minutes of not doing much of anything on offense...Pittsburgh's defense forced a key turnover with a blitz on Joe Flacco (who STILL hasn't figured out how to win close games vs. good teams)...and Big Ben led the offense 9 yards to the game winning touchdown.

PITTSBURGH 13, BALTIMORE 10
Total Yardage: Pittsburgh 288, Baltimore 269
Yards-Per-Play: Pittsburgh 4.4, Baltimore 4.7
Passing Stats: Pittsburgh 22-38-1-234, Baltimore 17-33-0-226
Turnovers: Pittsburgh 1, Baltimore 1
Sloppiness: Pittsburgh 21, Baltimore 21
Third Downs: Pittsburgh 28%, Baltimore 30%

These teams are incredibly evenly matched...and have been for several meetings now. NBC made a big deal about how close all the recent games have been. Baltimore had never won by more than three. That was about to change until the turnover with a 10-6 lead. Another name out of a hat game between top contenders. A play here. A play there. Somebody wins.

Pittsburgh moves to 9-3, but is in GREAT shape in the divisional race right now because they own the tie-breaker, AND they have three straight home games coming up. That's a lot of margin for error...even if Ben's so banged up that they won't be able to count on anything automatic the rest of the way (you'd think Cincy next week should be easy though). Baltimore is 8-4, and will now have to sweat the Wildcard with the Jets/Patriots loser Monday Night.

AFC Divisional Leaders:
Jets or Pats at 10-2 (both are 9-2 right now)
Pittsburgh 9-3
Kansas City 8-4
Jacksonville 7-5 (Jacksonville!)

AFC Wildcard Race (2 teams make it)
Jets or Pats at 9-3
Baltimore 8-4
Indianapolis 6-6
Miami 6-6
San Diego 6-6
Oakland 6-6

Back after the Monday Night game with the key stats from Jets/Pats...

Late Sunday Afternoon

2010-12-05T19:50:00.002-06:00

From the late games...

ATLANTA 28, TAMPA BAY 24
Total Yardage: Atlanta 290, Tampa Bay 325
Yards-Per-Play: Atlanta 4.6, Tampa Bay 4.7
Passing Lines: Atlanta 18-36-2-205, Tampa Bay 20-39-1-174
Turnovers: Atlanta 2, Tampa Bay 1
Sloppiness: Atlanta 28, Tampa Bay 24
Third Downs: Atlanta 54%, Tampa Bay 33%

Atlanta had a kickoff return TD, which helped them overcome the slight negatives in YPP and sloppiness. You see the maturity of Ryan in the third down numbers. But, he did throw two interceptions...which is a strike against his playoff potential if the Falcons have to play on the road. They may not because they're in the driver's seat in the NFC with a 10-2 record. And, they still have Carolina two more times...a team that made an overwhelming case that they're trying to lose out to get the #1 draft pick with a second half collapse at Seattle. Tampa Bay falls to 7-5...which is further back than it seems with so many Wildcard contenders at 9-3 (New Orleans, either Green Bay or Chicago) or 8-4 (either Philly or NYG). Nice jump forward this year. Amazing how many of these young teams just barely fall short in their biggest games.

OAKLAND 28, SAN DIEGO 13
Total Yardage: Oakland 368, San Diego 286
Yards-Per-Play: Oakland 5.3, San Diego 5.6
Passing Lines: Oakland 10-16-0-117, San Diego 23-39-1-265
Turnovers: Oakland 1, San Diego 2
Sloppiness: Oakland 11, San Diego 26
Third Downs: Oakland 53%, San Diego 30%

A schizoid result from teams who've been posting schizoid results this year. San Diego may have read too many press clippings about how they were a shoe-in to catch Kansas City in the AFC West. Oakland went back to Jason Campbell, and their missing-in-action running game magically re-appeared (251-21 on the ground today). Both teams are now 6-6, two games behind Kansas City at 8-4. Neither is eliminated...but both are further behind the eight ball than they needed to be. Will people stop talking about Philip Rivers for MVP now that the playoff run is almost derailed? Will people START talking about how throwing a million passes is only good in fantasy-land...and that breaking Dan Fouts records is useless if you also match his lack of meaningful success?

SEATTLE 31, CAROLINA 14
Total Yardage: Carolina 283, Seattle 371
Yards-Per-Play: Carolina 4.2, Seattle 5.8
Passing Lines: Carolina 18-34-1-152, Seattle 17-30-2-210
Turnovers: Carolina 1, Seattle 2
Sloppiness: Carolina 21, Seattle 23
Third Downs: Carolina 33%, Seattle 50%
Carolina led 14-0 late in the second quarter...then realized they were in danger of winning the game and messing up their shot at the #1 draft pick. With Buffalo, Detroit, and Cincinnati all losing (hmm, interesting) to fall to 2-10, there was no margin for error. The Panthers allowed a late first half field goal...then let Seattle go 96 yards in a finger snap to shart the second half...then threw a pass right to a Seattle defender for a pick six. Abracadabra...17-14 Seattle and it's still early in the third quarter! Yeah, maybe Seattle is just that good. The team that allowed 42 points aond 503 yards on this field to Kansas City last week. Carolina's still in the trunk (opposite of driver's seat) with a 1-11 record. Seattle is 6-6, in a fight with St. Louis for the NFC West.

DALLAS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 35 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: Dallas 368, Indianapolis 405
Yards-Per-Play: Dallas 5.0, Indianapolis 6.2
Passing Lines: Dallas 18-36-0-151, Indianapolis 36-48-4-365
Turnovers: Dallas 0, Indianapolis 4
Sloppiness: Dallas 8, Indianapolis 32
Third Downs: Dallas 53%, Indianapolis 54%

Both teams took turns trying to lose the game to the other. Peyton Manning had two pick-sixes (FOR THE SECOND WEEK IN A ROW). But, Dallas suffered a blocked punt return for a TD that gave the Colts the lead back. The Pokes ultimately prevailed in overtime. It was a fun game to watch. But, it felt like two 7-9 teams showing you why they weren't playoff caliber...rather than big name franchises playing for blood. Dallas is 4-8 (but is playing like 7-9 caliber since the coaching change). Indianapolis is 6-6 (and I guess is playing like a team that mostly has 4-12 type talent but is lead by a Hall of Fame QB).

Dez Bryant suffered either a fractured ankle or broken ankle on a kickoff return depending on which report you read. This was one of the more predictable things about letting him return kicks. Not the break, but a serious injury. It's got to be a 100% rule that guys with great speed run themselves into bad injuries early in their careers. It's like punters who outkick their coverage. There's such a thing as too much foot on punts. There's too much speed in terms of avoiding injuries. You create your own crash...or you put yourself in position where opponents have to dive at your knees or ankles to stop you. Most teams came to this conclusion long ago. Letting VALUABLE RESOURCES return kickoffs is INSANE! Jerry Jones learned the part about acquiring gamebreakers, but didn't learn the part about protecting them. Troy Aikman kept getting concussions. Emmitt Smith's supernatural durability may have tricked Jones into thinking that was the norm.

Getting excited about young stars who have great speed is relatively futile. It's a temporary thrill.

ST. LOUIS 19, ARIZONA 6
Total Yardage: St. Louis 288, Arizona 224
Yards-Per-Play: St. Louis 4.3, Arizona 4.3
Passing Lines: St. Louis 18-29-1-169, Arizona 11-29-2-119
Turnovers: St. Louis 1, Arizona 2
Sloppiness: St. Louis 16, Arizona 28
Third Downs: St. Louis 35%, Arizona 9%

Yawn. Hard to say if Arizona came out of the tank or not. They didn't do anything on offense. The defense looks good in the numbers, but was playing a rookie quarterback who hasn't sparkled consistently away from home. St. Louis moves to 6-6 and is tied with Seattle for first place (while providing home that we won't have a 7-9 record in the playoffs). Arizona falls to 3-9, and has battled Carolina for "true" worst team in the league for many weaks now.

Back after the Sunday Night game with the final stat wrap up...

Early Sunday NFL

2010-12-05T15:48:00.002-06:00

Numbers and notes from the early Sunday games...

MINNESOTA 38, BUFFALO 14
Total Yardage: Buffalo 239, Minnesota 387
Yards-Per-Play: Buffalo 4.9, Minnesota 6.0
Passing Stats: Buffalo 15-25-1-155, Minnesota 15-23-4-177
Turnovers: Buffalo 5, Minnesota 4
Sloppiness: Buffalo 35, Minnesota 28
Third Downs: Buffalo 25%, Minnesota 33%

It's tempting to look at the final score, and think that Minnesota EXPLODED as soon as Brett Favre was knocked out of the game. I do think many players were happy to see him leave. But...there were obviusly turnover issues for the Vikes, and a lack of success on third downs. They're better than they had been...but not quite as good as 38-14 might make it seem. It's just amazing that a franchise flushed most of their season down the toilet by allowing a banged up has-been to continue his quest for glory while throwing a million horrible passes. It's fitting he was injured on an interception. An entire year just flushed...along with a head coach. Minnesota is 5-7, which is still too far away to make the playoffs barring some miracles...but within reach of a .500 final record. This is a 10-win team (at least) with most QB's, including the guy who was sitting on the bench during the needless soap opera. Buffalo falls to 2-11, and may have had some trouble getting up for a non-conference game after losing an overtime heartbreaker to Pittsburgh last week.

CLEVELAND 13, MIAMI 10
Total Yardage: Cleveland 252, Miami 281
Yards-Per-Play: Cleveland 4.3, Miami 4.3
Passing Stats: Cleveland 24-34-0-200, Miami 16-32-3-167
Turnovers: Cleveland 0, Miami 3
Sloppiness: Cleveland 10, Miami 30
Third Downs: Cleveland 14%, Miami 28%

A sloppiness win for the Browns in what was otherwise a dead heat. Jake Delhomme avoided interceptions, and the team won for him. Though, you don't normallly win with just 13 points, 4.3 YPP, and 14% on third downs! Defensive struggle between two even and similar teams now. Maybe that's a topic for another day, how Cleveland and Miami have become so similar to each other. Cleveland is 5-7 against one of the toughest schedules in the league. Miami is 6-6 with a similar schedule challenge. I know Colt McCoy still has a long way to go in terms of production. It's a promising sign that he's been outproducing Delhomme in terms of moving the ball and bringing some passion to the offense. Ankle sprains are a particular issue for McCoy though, because he needs to roll out to get any fire on the ball. And, his scrambling helps move the chains. McCoy is one of those guys who HAS to be 100% healthy or he can't really contribute at this level.

JACKSONVILLE 17, TENNESSEE 6
Total Yardage: Jacksonville 377, Tennessee 220
Yards-Per-Play: Jacksonville 5.2, Tennessee 4.7
Passing Stats: Jacksonville 14-19-0-119, Tennessee 14-32-2-163
Turnovers: Jacksonville 0, Tennessee 2
Sloppiness: Jacksonville 5, Tennessee 28
Third Downs: Jacksonville 40%, Tennessee 18%

Titans are playing like they threw in the towel on the season. Though, the offensive components may just be so bad now that none of the QB's have a chance to do anything. Young didn't like getting blamed for that. Rusty Smith was inexperienced and rusty anyway. Collins comes back and the offense is horrendous...against one of the lesser defenses. Though, Jacksonville is playing well enough lately that I have to stop thinking of them as a pretender. Solid numbers for the Jags on the road against a good defense in cold conditions. You felt they could have scored more if they needed to. They used their 258-57 rushing advantage to grind out the clock. Jags are 7-5, and will take over first place in the AFC South if Indy loses to Dallas in the afternoon. Tennessee is 5-7, but has the look of a 6-10 team with a feisty defense rather than somebody who's a threat for the playoffs.

KANSAS CITY 10, DENVER 6
Total Yardage: Denver 247, Kansas City 359
Yards-Per-Play: Denver 4.5, Kansas City 5.0
Passing Stats: Denver 9-28-0-86, Kansas City 17-31-0-174
Turnovers: Denver 1, Kansas City 1
Sloppiness: Denver 24, Kansas City 19
Third Downs: Denver 25%, Kansas City 42%

Haven't seen highlights yet, so I'm not sure if the game conditions were brutal in terms of cold and wind or not. I know it was supposed to be cold. Orton's not usually the type to go 9-28-0-86 in the air. Kansas City typically lights up bad defenses. So, the numbers are suggesting it was played in a blizzard on the North Pole! Think I saw one play update where it obviously wasn't a blizzard. Chiefs should have had a bigger chip on their shoulder than this in the revenge spot. They do get the win to move to 8-4. Denver falls to 4-8, and gets closer to a coaching change after the season.

NY GIANTS 31, WASHINGTON 7
Total Yardage: Washington 338, NY Giants 358
Yards-Per-Play: Washington 5.3, NY Giants 5.9
Passing Stats: Washington 26-44-2-264, NY Giants 15-25-1-161
Turnovers: Washington 6, NY Giants 1
Sloppiness: Washington 48, NY Giants 15
Third Downs: Washington 41%, NY Giants 20%

I knew I was either going to be complaining about Donovan McNabb having a horrible year, or Eli Manning throwing too many interceptions. Manning had a dumb pick in the end zone...but otherwise stayed out of the way. McNabb led a sloppy attack that can't possibly come back from a deficit because they have no idea how to score points. Giants won rushing 197-74, again exposing the lack of dimensionality for the Skins. Washington falls to 5-7, and has the look of a 5-11 type team right now. The Giants are 8-4. But...we still see the "dominating bad teams, struggling vs. good teams" trend in play. Giants have played a weak schedule. They don't at this point look like a team that will win in the playoffs.

CHICAGO 24, DETROIT 20
Total Yardage: Chicago 311, Detroit 302
Yards-Per-Play: Chicago 5.4, Detroit 5.7
Passing Stats: Chicago 21-26-0-197, Detroit 16-24-0-168
Turnovers: Chicago 1, Detroit 0
Sloppiness: Chicago 10, Detroit 8
Third Downs: Chicago 56%, Detroit 42%

Typical Detroit game. They hang around most of the way, but they have no idea what to do late in close games. Another loss in a 2-10 season..but another pointspread cover because they stick to teams like shadows. Can't ever get ahead when it matters if you're a shadow. Bears still playing disciplined on offense since toning things down a few weeks ago. Third down conversions ended up being the only real difference. Though boxscores and stat analysis still hasnt' really figured out how to capture "possession management" stuff late in close games. This needs to be done...because it's how smart teams beat dumb teams when the stats cancel out. Right now, the scoreboard is the only thing capturing the phenomenon. Oh, Chicago moves to 9-3 with the win, as they stay in great shape to reach the postseason.

GREEN BAY 34, SAN FRANCISCO 16
Total Yardage: San Francisco 269, Green Bay 410
Yards-Per-Play: San Francisco 5.3, Green Bay 6.0
Passing Stats: San Francisco 10-25-1-172, Green Bay 21-30-0-274
Turnovers: San Francisco 1, Green Bay 0
Sloppiness: San Francisco 20, Green Bay 9
Third Downs: San Francisco 25%, Green Bay 60%

Close first half, followed by a 20-3 pullaway from the Packers after that. Stats are of a blowout pretty much up and down the ledger. And, San Francisco had a 66-yard TD pass that inflated their stats a bit. They weren't moving very consistently...but that one play pushed them way above 200 yards, jacked up their YPP, and made the score a tad more respectable. It was Aaron Rodgers vs. Troy Smith after all. Passing yardage and third downs capture the true dominance. Green Bay is 9-3 with the win. San Francisco fals to 4-8, but can STILL think about winning the NFC West with a few more victories.

NEW ORLEANS 34, CINCINNATI 30
Total Yardage: New Orleans 436, Cincinnati 311
Yards-Per-Play: New Orleans 8.2, Cincinnati 5.0
Passing Stats: New Orleans 24-29-1-290, Cincinnati 23-33-0-215
Turnovers: New Orleans 1, Cincinnati 0
Sloppiness: New Orleans 10, Cincinnati 9
Third Downs: New Orleans 12%, Cincinnati 35%

The Saints just aren't anything special this year, despite their 9-3 record. Too many games like this where they can't get any distance from a crap team. The defense isn't forcing turnovers this year (or lucking into self-destructions if you're a skeptic). New Orleans had huge numbers on offense...but Cincy did enough on offense to hang around. You can score points with 5.0 YPP if you're not giving the ball away. The Saints scored faster faster in a shootout...it was still a shootout. Poor third down rate for the Saints in Northern weather too. Cincinati falls to 2-10, and their head coach has to be the betting favorite for who gets the axe next.

Back by halftime of Pittsburgh/Baltimore with the late afternoon stats...

Saturday Night Stats

2010-12-04T22:53:00.002-06:00

Let's look at the night games.

OKLAHOMA 23, NEBRASKA 20
Total Yardage: Oklahoma 457, Nebraska 289
Yards-Per-Play: Oklahoma 5.7, Nebraska 4.1
Passing Lines: Oklahoma 23-41-1-341, Nebraska 13-28-1-148
Turnovers: Oklahoma 1, Nebraska 4
Sloppiness: Oklahoma 23, Nebraska 35
Third Downs: Oklahoma 1 of 16 (!!), Nebraska 4 of 17

Odd defensive struggle, in that both offenses occasionally broke big plays. I don't think I've ever seen a team gain more than 450 yards while going something like 1 of 16 on third downs. That should be impossible! OU obviously had some really good plays on 1st and second down.

And...OU's edges should have yielded a much bigger win than just three points. They won yardage and YPP big...AND won turnovers 4-1. Stat score without the turnovers was 26-19 for Oklahoma (2 times rushing...plus passing...times 0.67...divided by 15). That's close enough. But then a 4-1 turnover edge should add about 12 points to your margin because turnovers are usually worth about four points. So...we're looking at a 19-point win that was only a 3-point win. Give credit to Nebraska for getting stops after turnovers. In a way, Bob Stoops was doing his usual "big game Bob" stuff (that's sarcastic for those of you who don't know)...finding a way to lose games he should win. Nebraska still runs such a simplified offense that they couldn't take the gift that was being offered.

VIRGINIA TECH 44, FLORIDA STATE 33
Total Yardage: Florida State 341, Virginia Tech 442
Yards-Per-Play: Florida State 5.7, Virginia Tech 6.2
Passing Lines: Florida State 23-32-2-288, Virginia Tech 18-28-0-263
Turnovers: Florida State 2, Virginia Tech 0
Sloppiness: Florida State 19, Virginia Tech 10
Third Downs: Florida State 6 of 12, Virginia Tech 13 of 18

Christian Ponder was a last second scratch for FSU because he couldn't get his injury loosened up in the cold weather (or something like that, only half heard the announcers during dinner). The backup didn't embarass himself...but he threw an early pick six that turned the flow of the game in favor of Virginia Tech. The Florida State defense was the big surprise here. They were awful...allowing 13 of 18 on third downs and 6.2 ypp to an offense that's prone to move in fits and starts in big games. Tech just kept moving. Stat score here was 28-18. Both teams got more out of their yardage than is the norm. Right team won and covered though.

CONNECTICUT 19, SOUTH FLORIDA 16
Total Yardage: Connecticut 232, S. Florida 333
Yards-Per-Play: Connecticut 3.5, S. Florida 4.6
Passing Lines: Connecticut 13-29-1-112, S. Florida 22-41-3-195
Turnovers: Connecticut 2, S. Florida 3
Sloppiness: Connecticut 26, S. Florida 34
Third Downs: Connecticut 6 of 17, S. Florida 6 of 16

So...UCONN...needing to win to earn a BCS berth as Big East champions...managed a woeful 3.5 YPP, 232 total yards, and a sloppiness score of 26...but WON ANYWAY thanks to a defenisve TD (their only TD), and then a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds (career long for their kicker). Kind of a gutty win and a choke job at the same time!

Most expect UCONN to play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl the way the matchups are likely to go. That's actually good news for UCONN...because OU has a way of preparing poorly and coming in arrogant against undermanned teams (ask Boise State about that, and see boxscore above regarding "keeping an opponent in the game"). If OU shows up, it's a blowout...because UCONN can't pass from behind, and is going to look slow as molasses vs. the OU athletes. Funny, they have a common opponent in Cincinnati...and UCONN had a much better result. Expect OU to be a double digit favorite anyway.

Back by halftime of the late afternoon starts Sunday with early afternoon NFL numbers...

BOOOORRRRIIINNNNGGGGG!!!

2010-12-04T20:21:00.003-06:00

Would have popped in earlier today...but the early action was about as boring as it gets. The top two teams both won easily in potential danger spots. Pretty much nothing else of interest happened in the early games.

In fact, many of the games were boring in the same way...

YARDS PER PLAY
Oregon 6.7, Oregon State 4.4 (in a 37-20 win)
Boise State 6.6, Utah State 4.3 (in a 50-14 win)
Pittsburgh 6.1, Cincinnati 4.4 (in a 28-10 win)
Nevada 6.7, Louisiana Tech 5.2 (in a 35-17 win)

That's victory magins of 17-18-18 outside of Boise State...who turned some cheap points and efficiency with the first team into a 36-point win.

West Virginia managed to be more dominant than that with a 7.2 to 4.0 yard-per-play edge over Rutgers. But, they allowed a last second TD to only win by 21.

The monster performance of the day came from Auburn, with an 8.3 to 5.5 edge in YPP on the way to its 56-17 win over South Carolina. Total yardage was 589-349. Most impressive performance of the day by a good bit considering it was in a conference championship game. Oregon looked good too...but what Auburn did today was more impressive in a potential letdown spot off the very physical Alabama game.

Not ready to say that makes Auburn a clear favorite over Oregon in the BCS championship game. I'd lean that way though as long as Cam Newton and company don't get too arrogant off the result. A bit too much partying in the fourth quarter for my taste. The SEC trophy is just a consolation prize if you're not prepared for the next big one in a month.

Only other board game of note early was Central Florida over SMU 17-7 in the CUSA Championship game. Disappointingly bland. A statistical dead heat (4.9 YPP for both), but a sloppiness win for CFU of 27-4 thanks to a 2-0 turnover edge and a conservative passing attack.

Some electricity in the first halves of the night games. Will be back when those are over with the key stats...

Thursday Night Football

2010-12-02T23:00:00.003-06:00

Extremely close stats in the Houston/Philly game. Extra turnover was basically the difference-maker. Bad luck if you were rooting for the dog +8. Basically a statistical toss-up.

PHILADELPHIA 34, HOUSTON 24
Total Yardage: Houston 431, Philadelphia 416
Yards-Per-Play: Houston 6.7, Philadelphia 6.6
Rushing Yardage: Houston 108, Philadelphia 115
Passing Lines: Houston 22-36-1-323, Philadelphia 22-33-1-301
Turnovers: Houston 2, Philadelphia 1
Sloppiness: Houston 24, Philadelphia 16
Third Downs: Houston 50%, Philadelphia 50%

See what I mean? Almost play for play identical except Houston had that extra fumble when trying to score the back door TD...plus three extra incomplete passes.

Philadelphia moves to 8-4 with the win...but has looked pretty mortal the last couple of weeks. Definitely a team with their name in the hat...but not as scary as they seemed during the Washington game. Houston falls to 5-7. Note quite the end of the world in their division...because Indy could lose to Dallas this week, and Jacksonville could lose to Tennessee. But, this defense just isn't good enough to make the playoffs. Houston allowed four TD's on drives of 60 yards or more tonight, and continues to rank worst in the league in that category.

I was going to write up Arizona/Arizona State..but we have another game with a kid blowing two late kicks to cost his team the game. Arizona would have won with 27 seconds left but they had the extra point blocked on what they thought was the game-winning TD. In overtime...they scored would would have been the tying TD in the second period...but a low kick was blocked again. Hate dwelling on games like that. If Arizona was truly a top 25 team, it wouldn't have come down to that anyway.

You know, the whole 2010 season for Arizona may have been a bit of a scam. These guys looked awful in the bowl loss to Nebraska last year (they were overpowered, outclassed, and obliterated). That was part of the Pac 10 debacle that saw early losses to Mountain West teams, then a Rose Bowl loss by Oregon to Ohio State. It would be a shame to find out in a month that Oregon and Stanford are just nice teams in a very overrated conference rather than true national powers. Despite that poor bowl showing vs. Nebraska, Arizona started the season getting respect.

*They opened with easy wins over very poor Toledo and Citadel teams.

*They then "upset" #9 (allegedly) Iowa with a late TD. It turned out Iowa wasn't anywhere near the 9th best team in the country. The Hawkeyes were lucky to beat Indiana a few weeks ago, then lost to Northwestern and Minnesota to end the season. Arizona's win falsely launched them to artificial respect...

*They only beat California 10-9 at home, and Cal was lousy on the road all season. This result looks much worse now than it did at the time.

*They lost at home to Oregon State...in a year where Oregon State has generally disappointed vs. quality. This is virtually signature significance by itself that Arizona isn't a quality team this year. As are the other results in hindsight.

*They beat Washington, Washington State, and UCLA...which most everyone who knows what they're doing can pull off. I'm not suggesting Arizona is some kind of 2-10 pretender. But...they have yet to play to a top 25 rating based on what we know now.

*Arizona lost at Stanford 42-17, and it wasn't much of a game
*Arizona lost at home to Southern Cal 24-21, and USC has mostly sucked in the second half of the season.
*Arizona lost to Oregon last week 48-29.
*Arizona lost tonight to an ASU team that probably won't go to a bowl because two of its six wins came against lower division teams (they may get a waiver, like Texas, if there aren't enough teams to fill the bowls this year).

So, a four-game losing streak will FINALLY knock #23 Arizona out of the rankings. Should they ever have been there? Arizona was as high as #9 in the AP poll on October 3rd.

Amazing how a string of misperceptions can carry an error so long. Iowa wasn't as good as people expected. California wasn't as good as people expected. Stanford and Oregon didn't come until late in the schedule. Arizona, a team that looks to be just as bad now as they were when getting crushed by Nebraska last year, tricked the system into a top ten ranking with what might be the 40th or 50th best team.

Will be back midday Saturday to talk about early stats. Won't do a report for the light Friday night schedule. See you Saturday...

Why Randy Shannon Got Fired

2010-11-30T22:55:00.002-06:00

Went through and scribbled down the sloppiness scores for Miami the other day. Never got around to writing it up.

Randy Shannon was fired from Miami after they lost Saturday to a mediocre South Florida team. Many pundits have oulined various reasons for the firing. I think sloppiness score puts it into numbers.

Sloppiness = 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes.

Good offenses try to stay below 20 (though there's some leeway with the fast break teams who run more plays than average). If you're consistently in the high 20's or more, then you're making too many mistakes and not playing efficient football.

SELECT MIAMI SLOPPINESS SCORES (lower is better)
Miami 37, Ohio State 16
Miami 39, Florida State 14
Miami 49, Virginia 18
Miami 48, Virginia Tech 12
Miami 30, South Florida 20

Miami went 7-5 this year, and those are the five losses. Again, 30's is bad...so 39 is really bad and 48-49 is abysmal. The administration wanted something like 9-3 or 10-2. You can't make a run at 10 wins with a high risk offense that's THIS mistake-prone when they play quality opposition. And, of course, Virginia is lousy opposition rather than quality (though the backup QB played a lot of that game), and South Florida just isn't very good this year.

Over 11 board games (throwing out Florida A&M), Miami averaged 30.6 in sloppiness. with a median of 30. So, their "average" or "median" grade out as BAD on the scale.

I won't disagree with other assessments that Shannon wasn't getting the same kind of athletes as before because he had an eye on academics. Just remember that it's particularly frustrating to watch teams lose because of sloppiness water torture. When you're still throwing interceptions and a lot of incomplete passes late in the season (and the starting QB returned in the SF game), it's clear that the players aren't learning how to value possessions. And, it didn't really look like it was ever being taught.

Shannon wasn't fired because somebody knew what sloppiness score was. But, it does present the frustations of the Miami offense in numerical form. It was a story that started being told with the 37 mark at Ohio State, a 30 at Clemson in a win (starting quarterback was 13-33-2-205 but they won anyway), and the 39 in the loss to Florida State. Before the injury, this was a very sloppy offense that was likely to implode vs. quality.

Niners Dominate Cards

2010-11-29T22:53:00.002-06:00

A game that somehow managed to live down to its very low expectations...

SAN FRANCISCO 27, ARIZONA 6
Total Yardage: San Francisco 386, Arizona 203
Yards-Per-Play: San Francisco 5.4, Arizona 4.3
Passing Lines: San Francisco 11-23-1-125, Arizona 16-35-1-190
Rushing Yards: San Francisco 261, Arizona 13
Turnovers: San Francisco 1, Arizona 2
Sloppiness: San Francisco 17, Arizona 29
Third Downs: San Francisco 53%, Arizona 18%

Hence the word "dominate" in the headline. Across the board edges for San Francisco. Arizona falls to 3-8...and has looked so bad in most of their losses that you wonder how they pulled off three miracles. San Francisco was a cut above tonight, but is still just 4-7. The good news for them is that first place in the division is only 5-6.

NFC WEST
Seattle 5-6
St. Louis 5-6
San Francisco 4-7
Arizona 3-8

Some really low rushing totals this week. Last week, the only team under 50 was Miami, and that was with a 3rd string quarterback with short preparation playing a strong defense. Nobody was Under 50 the week before. This week under 50:

Arizona 13 vs. San Francisco
Oakland 16 vs. Miami
Seattle 20 vs. Kansas City
Tennessee 24 at Houston (3rd string QB)
Indianapolis 24 vs. San Diego
Washington 29 vs. Minnesota
Cincinnati 46 at the NY Jets

Some decent defenses in the mix there outside of Houston. Maybe it was just a case of falling behind early and giving up on the run in several places. We'll have to see down the road if it means anything or not. Happened to notice it on my game chart and figured I'd post the numbers.

Has Arizona thrown in the towel on the season? YPP in recent games:
San Francisco 5.4, Arizona 4.3 (lost sloppiness 29-17)
Kansas City 6.6, Arizona 5.6 (lost sloppiness 21-9)
Seattle 6.7, Arizona 5.1 (lost sloppiness 32-19)
Minnesota 7.2, Arizona 4.2 (beat Favre in sloppiness 16-26)
Tampa Bay 7.1, Arizona 6.2 (lost sloppiness 36-17)

That's not a killer schedule by any means, and Arizona is a yard PER PLAY (or more) worse than their last five opponents. The defense is allowing yards very easily and not forcing sloppiness except against Favre Loko. As I'm typing this Steve Young is saying on ESPN that Arizona was playing like they didn't even care. The pass rushers would make one half-hearted move, then just jump up and down. Nice indicator for tank jobs, or at least teams who don't care any more. Game stats were saying the same kind of thing. SF is pretty lousy, but posted dominant numbers.

You might want to knock 5-6 points off Arizona's Power Rating in your numbers. They've missed their last three spreads by 20, 11 (and it would have been 18 if not for a garbage time TD in the final seconds), and 22 points. Okay, maybe knock 21 points off their Power Rating! Looks like Cincinnati and Arizona are our first official tankers of the 2010 season (Bengals lost YPP to the Jets 4.7 to 2.6 and Buffalo 7.5 to 5.2 in their last two games).

Back Tuesday Night with something...

Shorthanded Colts Finally Implode

2010-11-28T22:27:00.004-06:00

This has been overdue for awhile. It basically happened in the Philadelphia game, but then Manning came through with a late TD to make the score close. It basically happened through three quarters of the New England game, but then the Patriots got comfortable a bit too early and almost blew the game. Tonight, San Diego kept the defensive pressure on the whole way through.

SAN DIEGO 36, INDIANAPOLIS 14
Total Yardage: San Diego 301, Indianapolis 303
Yards-Per-Play: San Diego 5.1, Indianapolis 4.9
Passing Lines: San Diego 19-23-0-172, Indianapolis 31-48-4-279
Turnovers: San Diego 0, Indianapolis 5
Sloppiness: San Diego 4, Indianapolis 42
Third Downs: San Diego 0%, Indianapolis 25%

It was kind of a defensive struggle disguised as a rout. San Diego had two defensive TD's when the game was still being decided. The two offenses combined to go 3 of 20 on third downs. You see relatively timid YPP numbers considering the quarterbacks. Good job by the defenses. Indy forced FG's instead of allowing TD's when it mattered. San Diego inflicted a sloppiness smackdown on Manning. After mentioning in the earlier post it was a relatively sharp day...we have a 42-4 sloppiness slaughter here. If you can't run, you're playing with fire. Colts finally confronted an inferno.

Indy falls to 6-5, tied with Jacksonville and a game up on Tennessee and Houston. San Diego is also 6-5, still a game behind Kansas City in the AFC West. Looks like the two AFC Wildcard spots are almost certain to go to the East (NE and NYJ at 9-2) and the North (Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 8-3). Well, I guess each of those hunks will suffer a loss next week because those teams are going head to head in the prime time games! The losers should be able to recover and make it to January. The Colts are going to miss the playoffs if they don't win their division. Same with San Diego.

Back Monday Night after San Francisco/Arizona to desperately search for something meaningful to say about that game...

Late Sunday Afternoon

2010-11-28T18:39:00.002-06:00

Let's start with the overtime game from the early kickoffs.

PITTSBURGH 19, BUFFALO 16 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: Pittsburgh 426, Buffalo 329
Yards-Per-Play: Pittsburgh 5.1, Buffalo 5.1
Passing Lines: Pittsburgh 20-33-0-220, Buffalo 23-45-1-255
Turnovers: Pittsburgh 1, Buffalo 2
Sloppiness: Pittsburgh 18, Buffalo 32
Third Downs: Pittsburgh 63%, Buffalo 30%

The stats are fairly one-sided for an overtime game. Usually that combination of third downs and sloppiness leads to an easy win. My guess from a distance is that Pittsburgh got a bit overconfident after they jumped ahead...and lost their focus a bit in the fourth quarter. They managed to get the win and stay ontop of the AFC North so it doesn't much matter. Pittsburgh is 8-3. Buffalo is 2-9 but keeps covering spreads. Gotta like a team that doesn't throw in the towel after a lousy start.

BALTIMORE 17, TAMPA BAY 10
Total Yardage: Tampa Bay 263, Baltimore 349
Yards-Per-Play: Tampa Bay 4.4, Baltimore 5.4
Passing Lines: Tampa Bay 17-37-0-162, Baltimore 25-35-1-257
Turnovers: Tampa Bay 0, Baltimore 1
Sloppiness: Tampa Bay 20, Baltimore 15
Third Downs: Tampa Bay 37%, Baltimore 35%

Baltimore wasn't really threatened. Tampa Bay scored relatively late to come through the back door from a 17-3 deficit at +8. Bucs have come a long way, but still have a lot of work to do before they join the elite. Baltimore's only pseudo-elite anyway and was in cruise control here. Ravens are 8-3 with Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay is 7-4 vs. a soft schedule (2nd easiest in the league heading into the weekend).

CHICAGO 31, PHILADELPHIA 26
Total Yardage: Philadelphia 398, Chicago 349
Yards-Per-Play: Philadelphia 5.7, Chicago 6.6
Passing Lines: Philadelphia 29-44-1-293, Chicago 14-21-0-218
Turnovers: Philadelphia 1, Chicago 0
Sloppiness: Philadelphia 20, Chicago 7
Third Downs: Philadelphia 30%, Chicago 30%

Stats don't really tell the story here. Chicago was more dominant than the score makes it seem...and that domination wasn't happening on third downs! Eagles picked up some big yards in garbage time, as they played from down by more than one score for the bulk of the second half. If you didn't get to see it...the Eagles looked flat coming off the huge divisional games. And, Chicago looked like a real playoff team! The Bears played with confidence, swagger, and seemed to believe they could do what they wanted on offense. Cutler was mostly smart and effective. If you circle the YPP of 6.6 and the sloppiness of 7, that captures the atmosphere pretty well. Eagles are better than this...as they were in that obvious flat spot. They fall back into a tie with the Giants at 7-4. Chciago is now 8-3...and could really become at least a first round playoff threat on this brutal home turf. If they know the footing with a quick passing offense (the Jets abused some people in the Chrebet years when the Meadowlands had horrible turf)...and visitors are trying to score on Chicago's great defense on the poor surface...you can see where this is going. The Bears have a one-game lead in the NFC North on Green Bay.

MIAMI 33, OAKLAND 17
Total Yardage: Miami 471, Oakland 263
Yards-Per-Play: Miami 5.7, Oakland 5.8
Passing Lines: Miami 17-30-1-285, Oakland 17-32-2-247
Turnovers: Miami 1, Oakland 3
Sloppiness: Miami 18, Oakland 30
Third Downs: Miami 47%, Oakland 22%

Pitching matchup ended up being Henne vs. Gradkowski after uncertainty during the week. Henne won that individual war...then the Dolphins outrushed the Raiders 186-16...which is saying something because the Raiders have a running game! Pretty dominant win all things considered...which helps shed some light on how bad the AFC West is. Oakland beat Kansas City to get back into the race...yet were pretty much squashed by Pittsburgh and Miami the last two weeks (and Pittsburgh/Miami played a close game against each other not too long ago). Oakland falls to 5-6, two games behind the first place Chiefs. Maimi is 6-5, and needs to negotiate a release to a new division.

KANSAS CITY 42, SEATTLE 24
Total Yardage: Kansas City 503, Seattle 288
Yards-Per-Play: Kansas City 6.3, Seattle 5.6
Passing Lines: Kansas City 22-32-0-233, Seattle 20-37-2-268
Turnovers: Kansas City 1, Seattle 3
Sloppiness: Kansas City 15, Seattle 32
Third Downs: Kansas City 64%, Seattle 25%

Be careful here. Kansas City has established that they're capable of putting up huge numbers on horrible defenses. That tricked Football Outsiders into listing them as #1 in the league a few weeks ago, with the second best chance of anyone to win the Super Bowl. You don't face crappy defenses in the playoffs. KC has struggled vs. the levels above crappy. Big stuff here though. Chiefs are 7-4, and are hoping the Colts can knock San Diego down to 5-6 tonight. Seattle is 5-6 in the Funhouse League (meaning they'd be more like 3-8 vs. a real schedule). That's good enough to tie for first in the NFC West..a division increasingly likely to send a team to the playoffs with a losing record.

ST. LOUIS 36, DENVER 33
Total Yardage: St. Louis 431, Denver 449
Yards-Per-Play: St. Louis 5.8, Denver 7.2
Passing Lines: St. Louis 22-37-0-308, Denver 24-41-0-330
Turnovers: St. Louis 0, Denver 2
Sloppiness: St. Louis 15, Denver 27
Third Downs: St. Louis 37%, Denver 11%

Wild one. St. Louis was in more control than the final score makes it seem through the third and fourth quarters. The Rams led 26-13 at the half. Yet, Denver did get the ball with good field position and two minutes to go because rookie quarterbacks don't know how to protect leads! The Rams defense rose to the occasion and saved the victory. St. Louis is 5-6, and tied with Seattle at the top of the NFC West. Man, Sam Bradford could make the playoffs. Denver is 3-8. The kid coach is 5-16 his last 21 games and not making many friends around the league.

For you newcomers, sloppiness is 5 times giveaways...plus incomplete passes. The lower the number the better because you want to avoid sloppiness. Teams largely did that this week, with very few horrible games. Cincinnati was the worst at 37 back on Thursday Night.

Back after SD/Indy ends with the Sunday finale...

Early Sunday NFL

2010-11-28T15:31:00.003-06:00

From the early games...will save Pittsburgh/Buffalo until later because it went overtime.

MINNESOTA 17, WASHINGTON 13
Total Yardage: Minnesota 299, Washington 216
Yards-Per-Play: Minnesota 4.7, Washington 4.2
Passing Lines: Minnesota 15-23-0-162, Washington 21-35-1-187
Turnovers: Minnesota 0, Washington 1
Sloppiness: Minnesota 8, Washington 19
Third Downs: Minnesota 40%, Washington 46%

The new coach largely took the ball out of Brett Favre's hands. No more swashbuckling. No more heroically limping all over the field and throwing dumb passes. Just a disciplined approach that led to a sloppiness score of only 8 (which Favre can reach in the first quarter if you let him run the show), and a solid victory. Minnesota's defense wasn't given horrible field position to defend. They stayed fresh. And, you basically see what they would have been doing with Tavaris Jackson if Favre had stayed in Mississippi for the Fall. Now, beating Washington doesn't mean you're a playoff team. But, this kind of win is consistent with a Wildcard type team...which is where Jackson probably would have had them. Solid, workmanline victory for the Vikings, who move to 4-7 way too late for it to matter. Washington falls to 5-6 (sorry Father Mike), and is a longshot for the postseason. Another one-dimensional day for McNabb's offense too. Only 29 rushing yards from the Skins.

HOUSTON 20, TENNESSEE 0
Total Yardage: Tennessee 162, Houston 346
Yards-Per-Play: Tennessee 3.7, Houston 4.6
Passing Lines: Tennessee 17-31-3-138, Houston 25-35-0-158
Turnovers: Tennessee 3, Houston 0
Sloppiness: Tennessee 29, Houston 10
Third Downs: Tennessee 27%, Houston 50%

How bad is Rusty Smith? With the full support of his coach and teammates...he went on the field against one of the worst defenses the league has seen the past several years, and got shut out! Horrible offensive numbers for the Titans. They must REALLY have been fed up with Vince Young (which, by all accounts, they truly were). Good reminder of what inexperienced or bad quarterbacks look like in the numbers. No YPP, poor third downs, sloppiness issues. Houston goes to 5-6 with the win, now tied with Tennessee in the AFC South behind Indy's 6-4 mark (pending tonight's game with SD). Houston will be back in the playoff race of the Colts fall to the Chargers. They'd be LEADING THE DIVISION if they knew how to protect fourth quarter leads.

NY GIANTS 24, JACKSONVILLE 20
Total Yardage: Jacksonville 328, NY Giants 361
Yards-Per-Play: Jacksonville 4.5, NY Giants 7.2
Passing Lines: Jacksonville 20-35-1-121, NY Giants 14-24-0-226
Turnovers: Jacksonville 2, NY Giants 0
Sloppiness: Jacksonville 25, NY Giants 10
Third Downs: Jacksonville 62%, NY Giants 30%

The Giants made some big plays, but that poor third down rate shows they were moving in fits and starts. A few weeks ago I was concerned about putting New York in the Funhouse Mirror League. Not any more. That poor strength of schedule (at the time) was telling us some things we should have been listening too. Have they covered a game since? Eli and Company are 7-4 with the win, but they've fallen out of the Super Bowl discussion for the time being (which is focused on Philly, GB, and Atlanta). Rightfully so based on this late-earned victory. Jacksonville is 6-5, and is also hoping for a Colts loss tonight. How about a four-way tie after 16 games in the AFC South?!

CLEVELAND 24, CAROLINA 23
Total Yardage: Carolina 326, Cleveland 379
Yards-Per-Play: Carolina 5.6, Cleveland 5.4
Passing Lines: Carolina 16-28-1-175, Cleveland 24-36-2-227
Turnovers: Carolina 1, Cleveland 3
Sloppiness: Carolina 17, Cleveland 27
Third Downs: Carolina 46%, Cleveland 36%

It seemed fitting that Jake Delhomme would throw a pick six to his former team...considering all the hearts he broke in Carolina with miserably timed turnovers the past couple of seasons. The gods of football allowed that to happen, but then blew Carolina's last second field attempt wide left to keep the improving Browns moving in the right direction. Cleveland is 4-7, and would be 10-1 if Colt McCoy had started every game (lol). Okay, obviously not true. But, note how sloppiness shot way up with Delhomme. McCoy's quietly keeping them in games. Delhomme still has a knack for blowing games he should have won. Carolina is 1-10, and may ultimately be glad they missed that field goal come draft day.

ATLANTA 20, GREEN BAY 17
Total Yardage: Green Bay 418, Atlanta 295
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 7.1, Atlanta 5.2
Passing Lines: Green Bay 26-35-0-341, Atlanta 24-28-0-178
Turnovers: Green Bay 1, Atlanta 0
Sloppiness: Green Bay 14, Atlanta 4
Third Downs: Green Bay 36%, Atlanta 33%

Conservatively played game (very low combined sloppiness) because neither team wanted to show too much in case there's a playoff rematch. Very much a "name out of a hat" game..with Atlanta getting the ball last and kicking the game winning field goal. Green Bay had a big yardage edge because a long drive ended with a fumble on the one-yard line that went into the end zone for a touchback. Either team could have won it (though Green Bay probably "should" have won it based on YPP), and either team could win the rematch. Atlanta moves to 9-2, and is in GREAT shape to earn a bye week because the schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way (two games with 1-10 Carolina). Green Bay is 7-4, and may actually fall behind Chicago the way the Bears are playing vs. Philly as I type this early in the second quarter of that game.

See you by halftime of the NBC game with the late afternoon numbers and the OT game in Buffalo...

Oklahoma Ran 107 Plays!

2010-11-27T23:14:00.004-06:00

One of the downsides of playing fast break football for a whole season is that it wears out your own defense. Oklahoma State was dealing with that tonight...AND the fact that Oklahoma was able to keep them on the field all night long.

Total Plays: Oklahoma 107, Oklahoma State 66
Third Downs: Oklahoma 16 of 27, Oklahoma State 5 of 15

I don't think I've ever seen 27 third down tries in a regulation game...but this fast break stuff has been going on for a few years with various teams...and it's not like I'm going to look something up like that this late at night (lol).

Anyway...if you watched...you know that Oklahoma scored two late VERY LONG touchdown passes with receivers who shouldn't have been pulling away from their defenders. Yet, they did because the defenders had no legs left! Would have been great if Brent and Herbie had developed that theme coming into the game...throughout the night...and then in the final minutes when it mattered most.

It's possible to get away with it for a whole season. Maybe Auburn or Oregon will carry the approach into a championship game showdown that will guarantee that we'll have a fast break champion. You saw the downside tonight...and you almost did yesterday with Alabama/Auburn but Alabama lost their QB when they were in position to drive for a game winning field goal. Oregon dodged a bullet at Cal recently too.

Anyway...I'll want the second half Over if Auburn and Oregon do meet for the championship.

OKLAHOMA 47, OKLAHOMA STATE 41
Total Yardage: Oklahoma 588, Oklahoma State 379
Yards-Per-Play: Oklahoma 5.5, Oklahoma State 5.7
Turnovers: Oklahoma 3, Oklahoma State 3
Sloppiness: Oklahoma 40, Oklahoma State 30

What a slopfest. Difference between this game and OU/A&M is that OU didn't break those long TD's late against the Aggies. They ran a million plays...didn't have a great YPP (and they wouldn't have here without the two late gamebreakers). OU threw 25 incomplete passes. This isn't your grandfather's football any more. And, now that I'm pushing 50, I'm starting to see games like a grandfather!

In other night games...

MISSISSIPPI STATE 31, OLE MISS 23
Total Yardage: Miss. State 498, Ole Miss 326
Yards-Per-Play: Miss. State 7.1, Ole Miss 4.1
Turnovers: Miss. State 3, Ole Miss 2
Sloppiness: Miss. State 22, Ole Miss 30

Miss. State's surge to respectability is one of the great unreported stories of the season. They were a road favorite here...and posted huge stats. Interesting, isn't it that Dan Mullen and Tim Tebow took a lot of the Florida mojo somewhere else...and now Florida doesn't have much mojo? Looks like Urban Meyer was getting credit others were deserving. Maybe knowing that is what caused his heart problems as Tebow was waving goodbye to the crowd last year...

SOUTH CAROLINA 29, CLEMSON 7
Total Yardage: S. Carolina 322, Clemson 251
Yards-Per-Play: S. Carolina 4.9, Clemson 4.0
Turnovers: S. Carolina 0, Clemson 3
Sloppiness: S. Carolina 16, Clemson 33

I thought sure South Carolina would tank this one...or at least go at three-quarter's speed to save themselves for Auburn next week. Maybe they did. Clemson's offense has been dormant the last few weeks, and stayed that way here. On their home field. Who plays in the national championship game if Auburn loses to SC and Oregon gets stunned by Oregon State?

GEORGIA 42, GEORGIA TECH 34
Total Yardage: Georgia Tech 512, Georgia 425
Yards-Per-Play: Georgia Tech 5.6, Georgia 8.9
Turnovers: Georgia Tech 4, Georgia 2
Sloppiness: Georgia Tech 27, Georgia 14

STANFORD 38, OREGON STATE 0
Total Yardage: Oregon State 285, Stanford 482
Yards-Per-Play: Oregon State 4.1, Stanford 7.0
Turnovers: Oregon State 5, Stanford 0
Sloppiness: Oregon State 48, Stanford 9

NOTRE DAME 20, USC 16
Total Yardage: Notre Dame 296, USC 261
Yards-Per-Play: Notre Dame 4.5, USC 3.8
Turnovers: Notre Dame 4, USC 1
Sloppiness: Notre Dame 34, USC 22

One reason the BCS seems so odd this year is that Texas, USC, and Florida have fallen off the superpower map to various degrees. Alabama stayed great but suffered some losses against a brutal schedule. Fans say they get tired of "the same old teams" playing for championships. But, now that there are some new teams in the mix...you're not hearing much water cooler buzz about Oregon-Auburn or Oregon-TCU. Everyone wanted a tournament. Fate has kicked out the teams people thought were getting too much love from the process anyway...and now you've got to deal with Oregon-Auburn-TCU as the top three. Funny how stuff works out.

Back around halftime of the late afternoon games Sunday with early stats. Will try to squeeze in time to do expanded commentary this week. We'll see.

Early Saturday Stuff

2010-11-27T21:36:00.002-06:00

From the earliest games...

OHIO STATE 37, MICHIGAN 7
Total Yardage: Michigan 351, Ohio State 478
Yards-Per-Play: Michigan 4.7, Ohio State 6.6
Turnovers: Michigan 3, Ohio State 1
Sloppiness: Michigan 32, Ohio State 14

SOUTH FLORIDA 23, MIAMI OF FLORIDA 20 (in OT)
Total Yardage: S. Florida 296, Miami 353
Yards-Per-Play: S. Florida 4.1, Miami 4.8
Turnovers: S. Florida 1, Miami 3
Sloppiness: S. Florida 20, Miami 30
(Miami continues battling Texas for sloppiest "good" team in the country, though Texas wasn't all that good this year).

TENNESSEE 24, KENTUCKY 14
Total Yardage: Kentucky 390, Tennessee 430
Yards-Per-Play: Kentucky 4.8, Tennessee 6.7
Turnovers: Kentucky 3, Tennessee 2
Sloppiness: Kentucky 30, Tennessee 28

CONNECTICUT 38, CINCINNATI 17
Total Yardage: Cincinnati 399, UCONN 357
Yards-Per-Play: Cincinnati 5.2, UCONN 4.7
Turnovers: Cincinnati 5, UCONN 1
Sloppiness: Cincinnati 49, UCONN 18

BOSTON COLLEGE 16, SYRACUSE 7
Total Yardage: Boston College 315, Syracuse 238
Yards-Per-Play: Boston College 4.4, Syracuse 4.7
Turnovers: Boston College 1, Syracuse 1
Sloppiness: Boston College 14, Syracuse 14

VIRGINIA TECH 37, VIRGINIA 7
Total Yardage: Virginia 291, Virginia Tech 383
Yards-Per-Play: Virginia 4.9, Virginia Tech 6.0
Turnovers: Virginia 1, Virginia Tech 0
Sloppiness: Virginia 15, Virginia Tech 10

MISSOURI 35, KANSAS 7
Total Yardage: Kansas 141, Missouri 397
Yards-Per-Play: Kansas 2.4, Missouri 5.5
Turnovers: Kansas 3, Missouri 2
Sloppiness: Kansas 32, Missouri 20

MICHIGAN STATE 28, PENN STATE 22
Total Yardage: Michigan State 331, Penn State 396
Yards-Per-Play: Michigan State 5.3, Penn State 6.1
Turnovers: Michigan State 2, Penn State 1
Sloppiness: Michigan State 15, Penn State 26

From the mid-afternoon TV window...

FLORIDA STATE 31, FLORIDA 7
Total Yardage: Florida 276, Florida State 333
Yards-Per-Play: Florida 4.4, Florida State 5.1
Turnovers: Florida 4, Florida State 0
Sloppiness: Florida 28, Florida State 8

WISCONSIN 70, NORTHWESTERN 23
Total Yardage: Northwestern 284, Wisconsin 559
Yards-Per-Play: Northwestern 4.7, Wisconsin 7.7
Turnovers: Northwestern 7, Wisconsin 0
Sloppiness: Northwestern 47, Wisconsin 4

MINNESOTA 27, IOWA 24
Total Yardage: Iowa 218, Minnesota 382
Yards-Per-Play: Iowa 4.4, Minnesota 5.2
Turnovers: Iowa 2, Minnesota 1
Sloppiness: Iowa 22, Minnesota 18

MARYLAND 38, NC STATE 31
Total Yardage: NC State 434, Maryland 408
Yards-Per-Play: NC State 4.4, Maryland 6.1
Turnovers: NC State 2, Maryland 0
Sloppiness: NC State 41, Maryland 14

UTAH 17, BYU 16
Total Yardage: BYU 293, Utah 296
Yards-Per-Play: BYU 4.0, Utah 4.6
Turnovers: BYU 4, Utah 3
Sloppiness: BYU 35, Utah 37

ARKANSAS 31, LSU 23
Total Yardage: LSU 294, Arkansas 464
Yards-Per-Play: LSU 4.3, Arkansas 6.6
Turnovers: LSU 3, Arkansas 2
Sloppiness: LSU 27, Arkansas 20

TCU 66, NEW MEXICO 17
Total Yardage: TCU 503, New Mexico 130
Yards-Per-Play: TCU 6.9, New Mexico 2.1
Turnovers: TCU 2, New Mexico 3
Sloppiness: TCU 20, New Mexico 27

Will come back after OU/Oklahoma State ends to post the night time numbers for you...

Did I Miss Anything?

2010-11-27T10:38:00.003-06:00

Ha! Boise State/Nevada was worth staying up for wasn't it?!!!!

I made it to 31-24...right after Boise busted the long 79-yard TD play after Nevada had rallied to tie it. Turns out I missed plenty of drama...but that was keyed by a couple of very poor kicks by a kid kicker...and those really aren't that fun to watch because no one player should have the weight of a failure on his shoulders like that.

In short...

*Nevada had a great second half...and rallied to tie the game at 24.

*Boise immediately busted a 79-yard pass play to make it 31-24...showing you that Boise has a big time offense with a sense for the moment (remember the end of the Virginia Tech game).

*Nevada took most of the rest of the game driving for the tying TD...showing you that Boise's defense isn't used to going 60 minutes vs. teams who know what they're doing...which is one of the biggest indictments against a team like this getting to play for a national championship. You should have more than 3-4 real games per year.

*Boise only had time for 1-2 offensive plays after the kickoff. Amazingly...well, AMAZINGLY, they completed a 53-yard bomb right down the center of the field against a prevent defense who's ONLY job was to make sure that didn't happen. Gotta love this quarterback, and really the whole Boise offense. That set up a very short field goal that the kicker gagged on.

*In overtime, the same kicker missed another short field goal (which may not have been enough anyway because Nevada has a knack for finding the end zone). Nevada only had to kick a FG...did...and scored the shocker over a team that was on the verge of playing in the Rose Bowl...and had a shot to sneak into the BCS championship game if Oregon or Auburn falter next week in challenge games.

Here are the numbers...

NEVADA 34, BOISE STATE 31 (in OT)
Total Yardge: Boise State 493, Nevada 528
Yards-Per-Play:Boise State 8.1, Nevada 6.1
Turnovers: Boise State 0, Nevada 1
Sloppiness: Boise State 11, Nevada 21
Third Downs: Boise State 40%, Nevada 53%

Both teams made big plays. Boise's 8.1 is a little warped because of the 79-yd TD and the 53-yd Hail Mary. They'd be at 6.1 if you took those out. But, Nevada would obviously be lower than 6.1 if you took out their two biggest plays. Nevada was better on third downs, but worse on sloppiness.

Great game. And, fairly strong evidence that Boise isn't one of the best two or five teams in the country. Nevada is ranked...but only because they're another team with a "run up the score" offense playing in a crap conference. Boise State's two toughest tests were a road-neutral win over talented Virginia Tech...but the same Tech team that lost to James Madison...and now a loss to the Nevada team who lost at Hawaii...and has historically struggled when stepping up in class (squashed by unimpressive Notre Dame last year---then annihilated by SMU of all teams in their bowl).

If you're making a list of, say, 15 "names in a hat" teams who could be in a SuperLeague of elites...I'm okay with sticking Boise in there. They've really upgraded their size and physicality. Virginia Tech's probably there...and Boise beat them in a road-neutral spot. I don't think a college Superleague would spit out Boise State in the top few spots though.

Let's imagine who's there:
*SEC: Auburn, Alabama (even with 3 losses because this is a great team), Arkansas, LSU, and I could see South Carolina but they're inconsistent enough to leave out.

*Pac 10: Oregon and Stanford

*Big 10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, and maybe Michigan State and Iowa. Michigan State's caugth some schedule breaks this year and I'm not sold that they'd be elite vs. a representative schedule.

*Big 12: Nebraska, Big 12 South winner (I'm not sure I'd put both OU and OSU in a Superleague this year if OSU loses tonight...but at least one deserves in you'd think.

*ACC: Virginia Tech, but it would be hard to convince me of anyone else. Miami might have been if their QB hadn't gotten hurt.

*Mid-Majors: Boise State and TCU

*Big East: Nobody

Okay, that's 13 if we exclude the borderline teams...so I'll stick Michigan State in to keep Big 10 fans from yelling at me. That leaves SC, the OU/Okie State loser, and Iowa on the fringe. Let's just call it 14 because OU hasn't convinced me they belong, and I don't want to stick a 27-year old QB in there with 2 losses because that's kind of a scam anyway.

Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU
Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State
Oregon, Stanford
Nebraska, Oklahoma/Okie State winner
TCU, Boise State
Virginia Tech

Great league! Mentally, play out a full neutral field round robin schedule where everyone gets 13 games (everyone plays everyone once). Schedule them in 13 straight weeks so that the realities of injuries, fatigue, general attrition, are all in play. Don't do the "well, they can play with anyone" gimmick to stick some undeserving team higher than they really belong.

Who wins? Or, more realistically, who are the three or four teams that will end up tied around 10-3 marks and we have to go to a tie-breaker? Heck, it might even be 9-4 with this group.

There just haven't been that many big games this year for the ranked powers. Auburn's accomplishments really stick out here because they've already defeated Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU from the list (and would have defeated SC once to this point if they had snuck in). Nobody else currently has more than one win (at a glance anyway)against the list.

Where do Boise State and TCU rank on the list of 14 in this scenario? Do you really have them top five? Not, are they capable of beating anyone on the page. They're both capable of peak performances. When the realities of fatigue, letdowns, injuries, and knowing how to keep your head late in close games (including your kickers!) come into play amongst the elite, do they have what it takes to win most of their games in a Superleague? What about them would suggest they could break the probable logjam we'd see around the 6-7 and 7-6 records in such a competitive league?

TCU will at least get a chance to show us something in a BCS championship game if Oregon or Auburn lose next week...or in the Rose Bowl against the Big 10 champ.

Back later Saturday with day game stats...

Friday Stats

2010-11-26T22:53:00.004-06:00

From the big Friday games...

AUBURN 28, ALABAMA 27
Total Yardage: Auburn 324, Alabama 446
Yards-Per-Play: Auburn 5.3, Alabama 6.3
Turnovers: Auburn 1, Alabama 2
Sloppiness: Auburn 12, Alabama 24
Third Downs: Auburn 31%, Alabama 25%

Great game...but in a non-great way (lol). Alabama won the first third of the game 24-0...and should have led by even more than that. Auburn won from that point on 28-3, making you wonder what the game would have been like if the Tigers had shown up for the full 60 minutes. Sometimes teams with a penchant for big second halves kind of sleepwalk through the first. Auburn overcame that here.

Dramatic, and a true thriller once Auburn climbed back into the game. A shame McElroy got hurt late, because 'Bama only needed a field goal to take the lead back. Tigers are VERY fortunate to have survived here...and it broke the hearts of TCU and Boise State fans.

Good job by the Alabama defense on the supposedly unstoppable Auburn spread offense. They contained it enough to beat it, and only allowed 31% on third downs. Great comeback from the Tigers. Don't want to downplay that. They woke up in time...then played like champions when they had to.

Did you see how many different star players got either banged up or knocked out of this one? Remember Colt McCoy getting knocked out of UT/Bama last year? I make variations of this point every year. If the best teams had to play 2-3-4 games apiece in a tournament, then many future NFLers would be suffering, or risking serious injuries just for the sake of making TV money for networks and schools. They won't put up with this...will demand to get paid...and that starts things down "the road to professionalism" that somebody was quoted talking about earlier this week. It's a real issue. You can't ask kids to risk careers so there can be a tournament. It's BRUTAL when the best PHYSICAL/FAST teams play each other with so much at stake. McElroy was still wobbly 15 minutes later and it wasn't even a big guy who took him to the ground.

Anyway...wanted to make that point again since a major injury influenced a major result within the mini-tourney that already kind of exists.

OREGON 48, ARIZONA 29
Total Yardage: Arizona 506, Oregon 537
Yards-Per-Play: Arizona 6.2, Oregon 6.6
Turnovers: Arizona 2, Oregon 2
Sloppiness: Arizona 35, Oregon 20
Third Downs: Arizona 53%, Oregon 40%

Can dust off "stat score" here. That helps you see the difference in value between rushing yardage and passing yardage. You'll note that total yardage and ypp was very similar in Arizona/Oregon, yet the final score wasn't. The stat score formula of 2 times rushing yardage...plus passing yardage..times 0.67...divided by 15...helps show why.

Oregon rushed for 384 yards....Arizona just 58. Stat score makes the final 41-25. That's pretty close to the actual final...and obviously much closer than 537-506 or 6.6 to 6.2 would have suggested. Oregon had an 8-yard TD drive off a turnover (a virtual defensive TD), which helped give a bit more air to 41-25. Count a pseudo defensive TD in there...and it's 48-25...almost exactly on the money of the 48-29 game.

Rushing yardage is worth a lot more than passing yardage in general because it comes with less risk...and because it tends to get you more points you can count on in scoring territory. Now...if a passing team doesn't commit any turnovers...and can turn long drives into TD's...then it's pretty much yard-for-yard the same. That's not usually how it works out though. This game is a good example of why.

Pass heavy teams have higher sloppiness too...with the sloppiness score favoring Oregon here as well (lower is better, 5 times giveaways plus incomplete passes).

It's halftime of Boise/Nevada as I write this (24-7 Broncos). Not going to stay up for the whole thing. Back late afternoon Saturday to run early stats from the daytime rivalry games...

Thanksgiving Stats

2010-11-25T22:40:00.002-06:00

Didn't get to see much football today. What I saw was the Aggies and Horns trading turnovers and miscues in windy local conditions. At least we're done with November temps in the 80's...hopefully.

NEW ENGLAND 45, DETROIT 24
Total Yardage: New England 447, Detroit 406
Yards-Per-Play: New England 8.4, Detroit 5.4
Turnovers: New England 0, Detroit 2
Sloppiness: New England 6, Detroit 29
Third Downs: New England 50%, Detroit 50%

Odd that Detroit was on the right side of the see-saw until New England finally pulled away in the fourth quarter. The YPP and Sloppiness stats are extremely one-sided.

NEW ORLEANS 30, DALLAS 27
Total Yardage: New Orleans 414, Dallas 457
Yards-Per-Play: New Orleans 6.7, Dallas 6.1
Turnovers: New Orleans 2, Dallas 3
Sloppiness: New Orleans 26, Dallas 27
Third Downs: New Orleans 42%, Dallas 46%

A wild game from what I hear (lol). Dallas was in position to wrap it up late. But, bad teams find a way to lose (which is something you could say about all four underdogs today...the Cowboys were the only dog to cover Vegas expectations).

NY JETS 26, CINCINNATI 10
Total Yardage: Cincinnati 163, NY Jets 319
Yards-Per-Play: Cincinnati 2.6, NY Jets 4.8
Turnovers: Cincinnati 3, NY Jets 1
Sloppiness: Cincinnati 37, NY Jets 17
Third Downs: Cincinnati 26%, NY Jets 23%

Didn't see any of this. You have to deduce some swirling winds based on the passing lines of 17-39-2-117 and 16-28-1-149. Though, the QB's involved aren't always accurate in the best of times. Jets had a kickoff return TD. Bengals had a short field score too. Victory margin is about right given the YPP and sloppiness edges I'd say.

TEXAS A&M 24, TEXAS 17
Total Yardage: Texas A&M 366, Texas 359
Yards-Per-Play: Texas A&M 5.5, Texas 4.8
Turnovers: Texas A&M 2, Texas 4
Sloppiness: Texas A&M 26, Texas 37

The Aggies were in control most of the night, but kept tying to give away that control with miscues and drops. A blocked punt let Texas get back into the game. Texas was driving to tie late but a tipped Gilbert pass was picked off. Neither team really did the Big 12 proud. Some of that was from a blustery cold front that came through during the day. But...these are mistake-prone teams. Sloppiness has been an issue for Texas all season vs. anyone who knew what they were doing. An EXTREME problem to an inexplicable degree. Might be hard to find another team that was THIS sloppy THIS consistently vs. EVERY non-cupcake (outside the Nebraska upset).

Gilbert is showing improvement...but he was coming from such a bad place in terms of real effectiveness that he's still a long way from being as good as everyone thought he already was back in August practice (!).

Local newspaper talked about an outside shot at a bowl with a 5-7 record because there may not be enough bowl eligible teams this year. That would be a shame. This team doesn't deserve the honor.

See you Friday evening with a stat snapshot of Auburn/Alabama and maybe some other day games...

MNF and NFL Notes

2010-11-22T22:47:00.003-06:00

I'll start with the Monday Night numbers...then throw in some comments from Sunday action.

SAN DIEGO 35, DENVER 14
Total Yardage: Denver 235, San Diego 400
Yards-Per-Play: Denver 4.1, San Diego 6.2
Turnovers: Denver 1, San Diego 1
Sloppiness: Denver 19, San Diego 15
Third Downs: Denver 8%, San Diego 50%

It was weird this week seeing more and more people talk themselves into the notion that Denver was a dangerous team with a great quarterback. It's like the win over Kansas City (which came after a bye week for Denver and an overtime game for KC) was all anyone remembered...rather than the 2-6 start the Broncos were sputtering through before that.

Well, you got the 2-6 Broncos tonight...who are now 3-7 this year and 5-15 their last 20 games with this erratic coach/QB combination. Yeah, if things click or they run into a tired defense they can put up some big numbers. It's still a kid coach and Kyle Orton. There is a ceiling in terms of what's possible on a week-to-week basis. Peaks and valleys...not peaks and peaks.

Anyway...you can see how one-sided the game was above. It shows most in YPP and Third Downs. And, Denver started the game with a long TD drive before falling off a cliff. The numbers after the the first few series were abysmal.

San Diego is 5-5 now, a game behind 6-4 Kansas City. The Chargers will have a home game vs. the Chiefs that will give them a shot at evening up the records and tie-breaker situation. Oakland is in the thick of the AFC race too with a 5-5 mark.

Not sure how much patience Denver management will have with this approach. You can't ask your QB to pass for 350 yards every week. You can't ask your defense to play shootouts every week. Are they trying to win a fantasy league or real football?

Notes from Sunday:

Pittsburgh/Oakland: Not much of a game, as the 431-182 yardage differential attests. Probably a borderline tank job for the Raiders in the bad body clock spot on the road against a killer opponent. Take your medicine and save yourself for big divisional games coming up later. Not that uncommon. Don't overrate the Steelers off the margin size here.

Houston/NY Jets: It should be registering with people now that "tight finishes" aren't truly "coin flip" situations if you have a lousy defense. You're going to lose a lot more than you win if you have a lousy defense because opponents can control their destiny better than you can control yours. Schaub has to play perfect in the last two minutes of a close game. Opponents really don't. So...I am sympathetic about the "bad luck" Houston seems to be suffering. But...if you have a horrible defense, you make your own bad luck in a sport where possession and clock management loom so large in close games. You'd think they would have learned more about that being in the same division as the Colts.

Baltimore/Carolina: Very misleading final score here (37-13), as Baltimore had TWO interception returns for TD's in the second half. Colorado was driving with a shot to cover down 23-13...then suddenly it was 37-13 without the Baltimore offense doing much. Give the Ravens credit for a 10-point win...but not a slaughter. You can't count on being handed TD's every week like that.

Washington/Tennessee: Father Mike is getting his money's worth on the Direct TV package this year. Does every Washington game go overtime? Well, when they're not facing Michael Vick anyway. Tennessee's only TD came on a punt return, so you could see why Coach Fisher was running out of patience with Vince Young. Young's not progressing...seems morally opposed to learning new things...and just wants to run to confetti so he can be a hero who wins the Super Bowl. He may not get another chance because franchises are starting to kinda/sorta blacklist guys with bad reputations. Too many poisons are making too many teams sick. Young picked a bad week to throw a tantrum...with Favre playing horribly and the VH1 twins on Cincinnati seeing their teammates go in the tank. Could be that Matt Leinart and Vince Young from that big Rose Bowl game will have trouble getting real work again. Takes true desperation to give those guys a shot now.

Dallas/Detroit: Didn't watch any of it locally. Stats looked like a dead heat in some key areas...but Dallas did have three long TD drives while Detroit only had one. Everything probably came out in the wash the way it was supposed to. Will be interesting to see how Dallas plays against New Orleans on Turkey Day.

Green Bay/Minnesota: Vikings tank job to get the coach fired...and it worked. They may also be tanking to get Favre benched. We won't know about that until next week or the week after. Favre's a sloppiness machine this year.

Buffalo/Cincinnati: Buffalo won the second half 35-0 on the road...which is YELLING tank job to the whole world...at least from the defense. Think they're sick of the offensive prima-donna's not doing anything until a game is out of reach? Think we'll see a coach firing here soon too. Can't do it this week because the Bengals play Thursday Night. Unfair to a new coach to give him no prep time for a debut.

Jacksonville/Cleveland: Colt McCoy did lead a go-ahead drive for the Browns, but the defense couldn't keep the Jaguars out of the end zone. Stats were more one-sided for the Jags...except for a stunning 6 turnovers. Everyone was talking about how rare it was for a team with a -5 turnover differential to win when Indy did it over Cincinnati last week. The Jags duplicated that rare feat here.

Kansas City/Arizona: Typical Cardinals road game. Workmanlike job from the Chiefs.

New Orleans/Seattle: Typical Seahawks road game. Workmanlike job from the Saints. Workmanlike for the Saints means 494 total yards and 382 in the air. For Kansas City, it means just 352 total yards and 193 in the air. Scores were pretty similar though.

Atlanta/St. Louis: The 34-17 final score makes it seem worse than it was. A lot of close stats, but the Falcons 52%-10% edge in third downs told you a lot about where the opposing QB's are right now.

Tampa Bay/San Francisco: Well, Raheem Morris is the coach that everyone was thinking Mike Singletary was going to be. Or, he's the coach everyone thought Singletary had become late last season and heading into what was supposed to be an NFC West crown this year. Solid stuff from the Bucs. Troy Smith is just another flailing QB at this point. SF has no idea how to run an offense. Doesn't matter who gets to pose for the glamour shots.

New England/Indianapolis: Can't believe teh Patriots almost blew their big lead. The Colts are still holding together with duct tape and rubber bands. The Patriots still have a defense that will give you a good 30 minutes before falling back in the Prevent and letting the other team pad their fantasy stats.

I think I did a write-up of the Eagles/Giants last night.

NAMES OUT OF A HAT

AFC: New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, San Diego

Looks like one of those six will be the AFC champs...but none of them have yet played what you'd call "championship caliber" football on a consistent basis yet. All have had their moments. All have enough weaknesses that nobody's a real favorite. Kansas City may work it's way in there. I'd have them WAY behind the others in terms of championship potential just because Cassel in crunch time is going to be more inexperienced than Brady, Big Ben, and Manning. Even Sanchez and Flacco got good minutes last year. This isn't like Kurt Warner and Arizona coming off the radar in the NFC a few years ago. Cassel isn't Warner.

NFC: Philadelphia, NY Giants, Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans

There will be an NFC West champion...but it's VERY hard to see that team stringing together wins over these guys. Tampa Bay may earn a playoff spot...but I'm not ready to give an inexperienced coach/QB combo "in the hat status" with all the veteran QB's otherwise in the mix. I'm not a fan of the Bears...but Lovie Smith's defense will give them a puncher's chance if they make the playoffs...and Cutler's capable of having a couple of good games before turning back into a pumpkin.

Will be back late Thursday Night with Thanksgiving Day and evening stat snapshots from the four football games. I hope everyone has a great holiday week...and a big day with the family on Thursday. If you don't have plans, go to Luby's in the first quarter of the New Orleans/Dallas game and there won't be a long line. Save some of your meal in a to-go box...then finish it Friday during Alabama-Auburn. The spirit of Thanksgiving without any fuss!

See you Thursday Night...

Eagles More Dominant than it Seemed

2010-11-21T23:07:00.002-06:00

Was surprised the stats were this one-sided because I missed a bit of the game.

PHILADELPHIA 27, NY GIANTS 17
Total Yardage: NY Giants 208, Philadelphia 392
Yards-Per-Play: NY Giants 4.0, Philadelphia 5.9
Passing Lines: NY Giants 20-33-3-147, Philadelphia 24-38-0-244
Turnovers: NY Giants 5, Philadelphia 2
Sloppiness: NY Giants 38, Philadelphia 24
Third Downs: NY Giants 45%, Philadelphia 21%

Through most of that...you have to think to yourself "Wow, another great game from Vick!" But, 3 of 14 on third downs is awful...and, you really shouldn't have to sweat a game where you win YPP by so much while ALSO winning Sloppiness by alot. The Eagles settled for field goal attempts on four drives that stalled in NYG territory (three makes and a block). A long run on the series before Eli's fumble bailed them out a bit. The "stat score" was 24-12 (two times rushing yardage...plus passing yardage...times 0.67...divided by 15). And, you're not supposed to sweat 24-12 edges where one team "earns" two thirds of the points. Nobody will remember that down the road probably. But, it's worth noting now that Vick's maturation process still has some work to do.

Philly moves to 7-3, and is in good form of late. The Giants fall to 6-4, and that warning about strength of schedule we kind of stumbled onto a couple of weeks ago is starting to look important. They weren't the best team in the league when everyone was saying they were. They just had a strong record vs. a crap schedule. Eli is still too turnover prone vs. quality when it's on his shoulders to get the job done. You have to play quality for that to show up.

Forgot to run Third Down conversions for everyone in the earlier stuff. Let me rectify that now. Here are the numbers for the whole week. I do think this stat is telling some important stories this week. I'll trust you to deduce the themes because it's getting late.

Chicago 56%, Miami 9%
Pittsburgh 50%, Oakland 21%
NY Jets 46%, Houston 33%
Baltimore 18%, Carolina 7%
Washington 50%, Tennessee 27%
Detroit 55%, Dallas 54%
Green Bay 53%, Minnesota 30%
Cincinnati 56%, Buffalo 50%
Cleveland 43%, Jacksonville 36%
Kansas City 36%, Arizona 26%
New Orleans 73%, Seattle 58%
Atlanta 52%, St. Louis 10%
Tampa Bay 50%, San Francisco 20%
Indianapolis 78%, New England 63%
NY Giants 45%, Philadelphia 21%

Vick's troubles are in a bit more context when you see which other offenses struggled in the stat. Won't have time to discuss it this week...but New England's defense is so far from championship caliber right now that nobody should be assuming they're a sure thing in the AFC. In fact, it looks like we're going to have another "name out of a hat" season like two years ago when Arizona played Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl. The Giants were a "name out of a hat" team when they won the NFC as a Wildcard in the year they beat the Patriots. Maybe the world will change by early January. For now...none of the contenders can be trusted to gain distance on the others. It doesn't really matter how you rank them. Two teams will climb out of hats at just the right moment...then one of them will have to do it again in the grand finale.

See you late Monday after Denver/San Diego...

Sunday Afternoon Stats

2010-11-21T18:31:00.002-06:00

Ran into some time conflicts...so here are the key stats from the day games. Will try to do some commentary on these at a later date. If you're new to the site, sloppiness is 5 times giveaways plus incomplete passes...the lower the number the better because you want to avoid sloppiness.

PITTSBURGH 35, OAKLAND 3
Total Yardage: Oakland 182, Pittsburgh 431
Yards-Per-Play: Oakland 2.8, Pittsburgh 6.7
Passing Lines: Oakland 20-43-2-121, Pittsburgh 18-29-0-269
Turnovers: Oakland 3, Pittsburgh 1
Sloppiness: Oakland 38, Pittsburgh 16

NY JETS 30, HOUSTON 27
Total Yardage: Houston 343, NY Jets 401
Yards-Per-Play: Houston 5.7, NY Jets 5.6
Passing Lines: Houston 19-33-0-246, NY Jets 22-38-1-298
Turnovers: Houston 1, NY Jets 2
Sloppiness: Houston 19, NY Jets 26

BALTIMORE 37, CAROLINA 13
Total Yardage: Baltimore 378, Carolina 270
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.6, Carolina 5.1
Passing Lines: Baltimore 24-33-0-278, Carolina 13-28-2-150
Turnovers: Baltimore 2, Carolina 2
Sloppiness: Baltimore 19, Carolina 25

WASHINGTON 19, TENNESSEE 16 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: Washington 465, Tennessee 373
Yards-Per-Play: Washington 5.4, Tennessee 7.3
Passing Lines: Washington 30-50-1-358, Tennessee 15-25-1-222
Turnovers: Washington 1, Tennessee 2
Sloppiness: Washington 25, Tennessee 29

DALLAS 35, DETROIT 19
Total Yardage: Detroit 338, Dallas 265
Yards-Per-Play: Detroit 4.8, Dallas 4.7
Passing Lines: Detroit 32-47-1-263, Dallas 18-24-0-131
Turnovers: Detroit 2, Dallas 1
Sloppiness: Detroit 25, Dallas 11

GREEN BAY 31, MINNESOTA 3
Total Yardage: Green Bay 374, Minnesota 300
Yards-Per-Play: Green Bay 5.8, Minnesota 5.3
Passing Lines: Green Bay 23-32-0-283, Minnesota 17-38-1-207
Turnovers: Green Bay 0, Minnesota 2
Sloppiness: Green Bay 9, Minnesota 31

BUFFALO 49, CINCINNATI 31
Total Yardage: Buffalo 449, Cincinnati 361
Yards-Per-Play: Buffalo 7.5, Cincinnati 5.2
Passing Lines: Buffalo 21-34-2-308, Cincinnati 22-37-2-228
Turnovers: Buffalo 2, Cincinnati 3
Sloppiness: Buffalo 23, Cincinnati 30

JACKSONVILLE 24, CLEVELAND 20
Total Yardage: Cleveland 283, Jacksonville 371
Yards-Per-Play: Cleveland 4.7, Jacksonville 5.5
Passing Lines: Cleveland 17-28-1-195, Jacksonville 20-35-4-226
Turnovers: Cleveland 1, Jacksonville 6
Sloppiness: Cleveland 16, Jacksonville 45

KANSAS CITY 31, ARIZONA 13
Total Yardage: Arizona 382, Kansas City 352
Yards-Per-Play: Arizona 5.6, Kansas City 6.6
Passing Lines: Arizona 25-46-0-281, Kansas City 15-24-0-193
Turnovers: Arizona 0, Kansas City 0
Sloppiness: Arizona 21, Kansas City 9

NEW ORLEANS 34, SEATTLE 19
Total Yardage: Seattle 424, New Orleans 494
Yards-Per-Play: Seattle 7.0, New Orleans 6.9
Passing Lines: Seattle 32-44-0-366, New Orleans 29-43-2-382
Turnovers: Seattle 2, New Orleans 2
Sloppiness: Seattle 22, New Orleans 24

ATLANTA 34, ST. LOUIS 17
Total Yardage: Atlanta 391, St. Louis 304
Yards-Per-Play: Atlanta 5.6, St. Louis 5.6
Passing Lines: Atlanta 26-39-0-253, St. Louis 27-42-1-233
Turnovers: Atlanta 0, St. Louis 1
Sloppiness: Atlanta 13, St. Louis 20

TAMPA BAY 21, SAN FRANCISCO 0
Total Yardage: Tampa Bay 299, San Francisco 189
Yards-Per-Play: Tampa Bay 4.5, San Francisco 3.4
Passing Lines: Tampa Bay 14-22-0-137, San Francisco 16-31-1-118
Turnovers: Tampa Bay 0, San Francisco 2
Sloppiness: Tampa Bay 8, San Francisco 25

NEW ENGLAND 31, INDIANAPOLIS 28
Total Yardage: Indianapolis 467, New England 346
Yards-Per-Play: Indianapolis 6.5, New England 5.8
Passing Lines: Indianapolis 38-52-3-396, New England 19-25-0-178
Turnovers: Indianapolis 3, New England 0
Sloppiness: Indianapolis 29, New England 6

Saturday Night Stats

2010-11-20T23:03:00.002-06:00

From some of the night games.

TENNESSEE 24, VANDERBILT 10
Total Yardage: Tennessee 360, Vanderbilt 333
Yards-Per-Play: Tennessee 5.9, Vanderbilt 4.3
Turnovers: Tennessee 3, Vanderbilt 2
Sloppiness: Tennessee 26, Vanderbilt 31

CONNECTICUT 23, SYRACUSE 6
Total Yardage: Connecticut 254, Syracuse 235
Yards-Per-Play: Connecticut 4.3, Syracuse 3.6
Turnovers: Connecticut 1, Syracuse 2
Sloppiness: Connecticut 13, Syracuse 26

CINCINNATI 69, RUTGERS 38
Total Yardage: Rutgers 391, Cincinnati 661
Yards-Per-Play:Rutgers 6.5, Cincinnati 7.7
Turnovers: Rutgers 2, Cincinnati 1
Sloppiness: Rutgers 22, Cincinnati 11

ARKANSAS 38, MISSISSIPPI STATE 31 (in OT)
Total Yardage: Arkansas 488, Miss. State 489
Yards-Per-Play: Arkansas 8.0, Miss. State 4.9
Turnovers: Arkansas 3, Miss. State 3
Sloppiness: Arkansas 24, Miss. State 25

NOTRE DAME 27, ARMY 3
Total Yardage: Notre Dame 369, Army 174
Yards-Per-Play: Notre Dame 6.4, Army 3.4
Turnovers: Notre Dame 1, Army 2
Sloppiness: Notre Dame 12, Army 16

OKLAHOMA 53, BAYLOR 24
Total Yardage: Oklahoma 462, Baylor 361
Yards-Per-Play: Oklahoma 5.8, Baylor 5.1
Turnovers: Oklahoma 2, Baylor 3
Sloppiness: Oklahoma 24, Baylor 28

TEXAS A&M 2, NEBRASKA 16
Oops, that was the penalty count in Nebraska's final road game against a Big 12 South school that's part of the power base in the whole Big 12 before the Huskers head to the Big 10 next year. Hmm... Hmm... A lot of the 16 were 15-yard personal foul calls too. Hmm...

TEXAS A&M 9, NEBRASKA 6
Total Yardage: Nebraska 306, Texas A&M 310
Yards-Per-Play: Nebraska 4.7, Texas A&M 4.4
Turnovers: Nebraska 2, Texas A&M 0
Sloppiness: Nebraska 21, Texas A&M 10

OREGON STATE 36, USC 7
Total Yardage: USC 255, Oregon State 328
Yards-Per-Play: USC 3.6, Oregon State 5.0
Turnovers: USC 2, Oregon State 0
Sloppiness: USC 28, Oregon State 7

Probably back by around halftime of the late afternoon games with the early afternoon stats...

Midday Saturday Stats

2010-11-20T19:05:00.003-06:00

From the midday games...

OHIO STATE 20, IOWA 17
Total Yardage: Ohio State 353, Iowa 276
Yards-Per-Play: Ohio State 5.1, Iowa 4.9
Turnovers: Ohio State 2, Iowa 0
Sloppiness: Ohio State 25, Iowa 11

Ohio State was a bit lucky to win with the sloppiness loss. They did push through with a very strong game winning drive when needed though. And, Iowa has no idea what to do if they HAVE to drive the field for a score against a good team in a big game. Nice defensive struggle...but the QB's didn't sparkle...at least if you're used to watching other QB's who sparkle on TV. Pryor was 18-33-2-195. Stanzi mostly completed shorter passes on a 20-31-0-195 day. Buckeyes in tough shape since Wisconsin won today in terms of the Rose Bowl. They have to hope Wisconsin loses to Northwestern to have any shot. NW's defense got manhandled today by Illinois.

ILLINOIS 48, NORTHWESTERN 27
Total Yardage: Illinois 559, Northwestern 316
Yards-Per-Play:Illinois 6.7, Northwestern 6.9
Rushing Only: Illinois 519, Northwestern 181
Turnovers:Illinois 2, Northwestern 3
Sloppiness: Illinois 18, Northwestern 24

Northwestern had an interception return TD helping them stay close early. Then they busted an 80-yard TD run, which propped up their YPP pretty good but was a one-time thing. Illinois running up the guy for 7.4 yards per carry was a 70 time thing. Wildcats had nothing left after the big win over Iowa last week. Iowa ran a ton of clock to sit on their lead once they had it.

VIRGINIA TECH 31, MIAMI OF FLORIDA 17
Total Yardage: Virginia Tech 369, Miami 464
Yards-Per-Play: Virginia Tech 5.9, Miami 6.2
Turnovers:Virginia Tech 1, Miami 6
Sloppiness : Virginia Tech 12, Miami 48

Miami's being stubborn about throwing downfield no matter who their QB is, and now matter how good the opposing defense is...so this was a sloppiness disaster waiting to happen. Kind of fun to be able to point to a relic offense like this to show you what college football was like in many places 10-15 years ago...or what the old AFL used to look like (lol). You wouldn't believe some of Joe Namath's sloppiness scores! Tech wins their half of the ACC, and will play FSU, NC State, or Maryland for the ACC title (still to be determined). The fact that many somewhat respected computer projection systems continue to rank Miami as a top quality team shows you that they're not factoring in the risk/reward element of their offense properly.

LSU 43, OLE MISS 36
Total Yardage: Mississippi 420, LSU 470
Yards-Per-Play: Mississippi 6.3, LSU 8.0
Turnovers: Mississippi 3, LSU 2
Sloppiness: Mississippi 24, LSU 17

Wide open game where both defenses looked gassed in the second half (23-19 LSU just in the second half). Defenses can really wear down in physical conferences, or in the leagues that play fast break football. The SEC West in particular this year is just painful to play your way through. LSU also had to play at Florida.

Not going to run all the midday games because most didn't really matter in the big picture, or weren't very compelling. Some interesting prime time games on the card. Planning to come back during Saturday Night Live to run the numbers from those games...

Early Saturday Stuff

2010-11-20T14:44:00.002-06:00

From early Saturday action...

PENN STATE 41, INDIANA 24
Total Yardage: Penn State 496, Indiana 332
Yards-Per-Play: Penn State 6.6, Indiana 5.3
Turnovers: Penn State 0, Indiana 1
Sloppiness: Penn State 9, Indiana 24

Took awhile for Penn State to get some distance...but it's just not that hard to pull away from Indiana. Hoosiers lost their will to live when they blew the Iowa game. And, they're undersized and prone to wear down anyway.

BOSTON COLLEGE 17, VIRGINIA 13
Total Yardage: Virginia 421, Boston College 370
Yards-Per-Play: Virginia 5.0, Boston College 6.1
Turnovers: Virginia 1, Boston College 1
Sloppiness: Virginia 24, Boston College 14

BC did more per play, but had fewer plays. So, the combination of YPP and sloppiness explain the score better than total yardage did. BC becomes bowl eligible, and has been playing better lately. Still, an ugly team to invite to a bowl because the offense isn't very good.

MICHIGAN STATE 35, PURDUE 31
Total Yardage: Purdue 378, Michigan State 381
Yards-Per-Play: Purdue 6.2, Michigan State 5.9
Turnovers: Purdue 2, Michigan State 1
Sloppiness: Purdue 21, Michigan State 20

Almost a humilating performance for the Spartans, who were 20-point favorites and were trying to win out to force a tie at the top of the Big 10 standings. They were down big in the second half...and used a turnover and a blocked punt to sneak back into the game. You can see the stats are very even. If you're stats are even with Purdue, you played a bad game. State looks to be the worst of the "big three" at the top of the league. But, if Ohio State loses to Iowa today, they can earn a Rose Bowl bid by beating Penn State next week. That's far from a sure win based on today obviously.

WISCONSIN 48, MICHIGAN 28
Total Yardage: Wisconsin 558, Michigan 442
Yards-Per-Play: Wisconsin 7.6, Michigan 6.7
Turnovers: Wisconsin 2, Michigan 2
Sloppiness: Wisconsin 11, Michigan 21

Midway through the second quarter, it looked like the game had no shot of getting to its Vegas total of 69 points. Michigan's offense finally woke up after a scoreless half. Wisconsin's defense was awake all day. Studio guys made a good point about how far away from the top of the Big 10 Michigan is, even if they've improved this year from last. Badly outclassed here, and the defense is very small time. Wiscy wins a three-way tie in the Big Ten because of better BCS ranking...and a two-way tie with Ohio State because of a straight up win. A two-way tie with MSU goes to Sparty because they beat Wisconsin.

PITTSBURGH 17, SOUTH FLORIDA 10
Total Yardage: Pittsburgh 292, South Florida 285
Yards-Per-Play: Pittsburgh 5.4, South Florida 4.3
Turnovers: Pittsburgh 0, South Florida 1
Sloppiness: Pittsburgh 5, South Florida 19

Pitt's in good shape now in the Big East race with a 4-1 record. South Florida falls to 3-3. Things starting to shake out of their logjam slowly but surely. Stats show the right team won and covered the low scoring nailbiter.

WEST VIRGINIA 17, LOUISVILLE 10
Total Yardage: West Virginia 261, Louisville 171
Yards-Per-Play: West Virginia 3.9, Louisville 3.2
Turnovers: West Virginia 1, Louisville 1
Sloppiness: West Virginia 16, Louisville 17

West Virginia is 3-2 in the Big East..giving themselves a shot to beat Pittsburgh in a few weeks in a game that might determine the league winner. Still too crowded to write in anything even in pencil. Big East football stays ugly with the YPP numbers in these two games. Does cut down on sloppiness though...because the clock runs so fast there's no time to make a lot of mistakes.

OKLAHOMA STATE 48, KANSAS 14
Total Yardage: Oklahoma State 597, Kansas 288
Yards-Per-Play: Oklahoma State 7.2, Kansas 4.4
Turnovers: Oklahoma State 0, Kansas 0
Sloppiness: Oklahoma State 12, Kansas 13

Slow start for Okie State, as they trailed after a quarter and only led 20-14 at the half. It was 28-0 after that...with blockbuster yardage stats.

Back early this evening with the numbers from the midday TV window. Will try to do NC/NC State then. The last few minutes took so long that I couldn't get the numbers in time for this writing burst...

Thigpen Made it Look like a Pigpen

2010-11-18T22:23:00.003-06:00

Did the announcers say something like that tonight? I apologize if they did. I missed an hour watching "Fringe," and kept the volume low after I turned it over. The only think worse than watching a horrible game is listening to Matt Millen and Joe Theismann call a horrible game.

Tyler Thigpen was really under the gun tonight. He's Miami's third-string QB and was as rusty as could be. He had a short preparation week to get ready for one of the best defenses in the league. He wasn't likely to thrive, and looked even worse than dour forecasts might have suggested in a shutout loss.

CHICAGO 16, MIAMI 0
Total Yardage: Chicago 268, Miami 187
Yards-Per-Play: Chicago 3.9, Miami 3.9
Passing Lines: Chicago 16-25-1-133, Miami 17-29-1-148
Turnovers: Chicago 1, Miami 1
Sloppiness: Chicago 14, Miami 17
Third Downs: Chicago 56%, Miami 9%

Miami was playing so badly that Chicago looked sharp by comparison...even though the Bears only scored one TD, averaged just 3.9 YPP, and passed for just 133 yards. Remember that down the road when the Bears are playing teams who have an offense! The big difference was on third downs. Cutler really did do a very good job of moving the chains enough to get points on the board...even if it was just field goals. Miami was 1 of 11 on third downs...and looked even more helpless than that made it sound.

Really tough spot for the Dolphins offense. This is a bit of an outlier obviously. Even if they have to go with Thigpen next time, they'll have had a lot more practices to get everyone on the same page. Miami falls to 5-5 in a division where New England and the NY Jets are closing in on playoff spots already. Chicago is now 7-3, and near the top of our Funhouse Mirror League thanks to a very easy schedule. They sure caught another break in that regard tonight didn't they?

The Funhouse Mirror League consists of the 12 teams from the AFC West, NFC West, and NFC South who are in divisions that caught massive schedule breaks this year...plus the Chicago Bears and NY Giants who have lucked into easy schedules so far even though they don't play in those divisions.

FUNHOUSE MIRROR LEAGE (Sagarin's USA Today strength of schedule in parenthesis)
Atlanta 7-2 (12th)
Chicago 7-3 (31st)
NY Giants 6-3 (30th)
New Orleans 6-3 (29th)
Tampa Bay 6-3 (27th)
Oakland 5-4 (28th)
Seattle 5-4 (26th)
Kansas City 5-4 (25th)
San Diego 4-5 (19th)
St. Louis 4-5 (32nd)
Denver 3-6 (15th)
Arizona 3-6 (17th)
San Francisco 3-6 (24th)
Carolina 1-8 (23rd)

Chicago was 31st coming into the week in their schedule...it will change now...though Miami with Thigpen in a short week would probably grade out as a lower level team. Atlanta's managed to play a decent schedule anyway, so their 7-2 mark really isn't a Funhouse Mirror record. San Diego, Denver, and Arizona are close to league average. It's all the guys in the mid 20's and low 30's you have to worry about. Some of those guys will make the playoffs with the kind of teams who would go 7-9, maybe 6-10, vs. regular schedules.

We're now looking at both Chicago and the NFC West champion possibly mucking up the NFC half of the brackets.

Let's look at some of the good records for teams who have played tough schedules:

New England 7-2 (7th)
NY Jets 7-2 (9th)
Pittsburgh 6-3 (2nd)
Baltimore 6-3 (5th)
Philadelphia 6-3 (11th)

Tweeners
Green Bay 6-3 (20th)
Indianapolis 6-3 (21st)
Tennessee 5-4 (10th)
Jacksonville 5-4 (22nd)

Hopefully the deserving teams will get in...and it's just borderline teams who miss out.

Back late afternoon Saturday with stats from the early college games. Not going to run the numbers tonight because none of the games mattered. Will skip Fresno/Boise too Friday Night. Next update will be late afternoon Saturday...

Brady, Vick Shine in the Spotlight

2010-11-15T23:06:00.002-06:00

The Sunday Night and Monday Night games had a few things in common. The winners were led by quarterbacks having huge nights. Those QB's built big leads that allowed the opponents to put up some stats in garbage time in a way that made the stats closer than the game. Brady and Vick were dominant. Ben Roethlisberger and Donovan McNabb were pretty invisible until they fell way behind.

DOMINANT PERFORMANCES
Brady: 30-43-0-350
Vick: 20-28-0-332

Brady: 0 giveaways, 6.8 yards-per-play
Vick: 0 giveaways, 8.8 yards-per play

This is while BUILDING a lead vs. a respected defense trying to shut them down...and includes time SITTING on a lead when stats can be harder to come by.

New England moves to 7-2, and still has some defensive issues they'll need to be concerned with come playoff time based on what happened in Cleveland the prior week. Philadelphia is now 6-3, and would probably be better than that if they had just started Michael Vick at the beginning of the season...and if he had stayed healthy. If you're just doing Power Ratings or stat rankings based on "Vick at full health," you have to have the Eagles near the top of the heap regardless of their nine-game record.

I'm not going to run the stats of the losing guys because all the garbage time numbers this week were making me nuts, and I have to make a stand! (lol). Pittsburgh falls to 6-3, and hasn't done much offensively EXCEPT in garbage time vs. NE or on short fields vs. Cincy since Big Ben returned (only 3 points in the first half last night). Washington falls to 4-5...and has really looked more like a 2-7 type team over the last month. They looked awful in wins over Chicago and Green Bay...and now in losses to Detroit and Philadelphia.

You can probably guess my thoughts on Washington's inking of McNabb to a 5-year deal with $40 million in guaranteed money. There seem to be two takes on this:

*The STATHEAD take that it's INSANE, completely INDEFENSIBLE, and another sign that the OWNER HAS NO IDEA WHAT HE'S DOING!

*The NFL Network/ESPN apologists suggestion that QB's are scarce...finding a free agent or high draft pick will be expensive in the future, and you might as well commit to a known quantity.

McNabb is 34, and plays like an old 34 because he ran so much when he was younger. He's not consistently accurate enough to just be a passer in his old age. Sure, Brett Favre played into his 40's....that doesn't mean anybody who's any good can also do the same thing. Philly was fine with getting rid of McNabb last year. You could see why this year because he was struggling so badly with Washington. Garbage time stats tonight don't change that. Note that Washington was 0 for 10 on third downs tonight even against a garbage time defense that was okay with the clock running no matter who was moving the ball.

Signing guys who are past their prime for exhorbitant contracts is the stuff that most smart ownership/management groups realized many years ago just can't be done any more. The "Moneyball" book is old news by now. How can a team in 2010 make a mistake this dumb? BOGGLES THE MIND!

Will come back Tuesday Night or Wednesday Night with some more notes. For those of you who just HAVE TO HAVE the YPP and sloppiness stuff or you can't sleep...

Yards-Per-Play: New England 6.8, Pittsburgh 6.1
Sloppiness: New England 13, Pittsburgh 24

Yards-Per-Play: Philadelphia 8.8, Washington 7.4
Sloppiness: Philadelphia 8, Washington 29

If you've stumbled into the blog in recent days, you're probably wondering what sloppiness is. It's 5 times the number of giveaways...plus the number of incomplete passes...you want low numbers because you're trying to avoid sloppiness. See you midweek.

Pushing SNF Recap back to Monday

2010-11-14T22:16:00.001-06:00

Going to call it a night. Will run the Sunday Night numbers with the Monday Night numbers after Philly/Washington comes to an end. See you late Monday...

Late Sunday Afternoon

2010-11-14T20:19:00.003-06:00

From the late games...

DENVER 49, KANSAS CITY 29
Total Yardage: Kansas City 484, Denver 452
Yards-Per-Play: Kansas City 6.1, Denver 6.8
Turnovers: Kansas City 1, Denver 0
Sloppiness: Kansas City 25, Denver 12
Third Downs: Kansas City 38%, Denver 60%

Denver jumped out to a 35-0 lead, then the rest was garbage time...so the volume of stats aren't that meaningful. Broncos won YPP, Third Downs, and sloppiness though...so jumping way ahead was relatively clean (a fumble return helped...but they didn't need the help). Denver bounces off the bye week to move to 3-6 and stay alive in the playoff picture. Kansas City falls to 5-4, putting Oakland and San Diego back into a near dead-heat at the top of the AFC West. Chiefs were worn down from some recent overtime games based on that flat start.

SAN FRANCISCO 23, ST. LOUIS 20 (in overtime)
Total Yardage: St. Louis 332, San Francisco 421
Yards-Per-Play: St. Louis 4.8, San Francisco 7.1
Turnovers: St. Louis 0, San Francisco 0
Sloppiness: St. Louis 12, San Francisco 11
Third Downs: St. Louis 14%, San Francisco 0%

Amazing how many of these OT games are tied at 20-all. Both were there today. That's right where you'd expect totals to land in a parity league I guess. Houston/Jax was almost 24-all. Weird numbers up there. Defenses didn't force many miscues...yet neither offense could convert a third down! The offenses were 2 of 25 under inexperienced QB's Bradford and Troy Smith. Maybe everyone was showing baby passes on third and long before punting. SF converted a few monster plays to jack that YPP way up. Forty-niners are still alive at 3-6 in the woeful NFC West. St. Louis falls to 4-5, but sure knows how to hang with other weak teams. Good to see the effort. In a real division though they'd be 2-7 I think.

SEATTLE 36, ARIZONA 18
Total Yardage: Seattle 490, Arizona 327
Yards-Per-Play: Seattle 6.7, Arizona 5.1
Turnovers: Seattle 1, Arizona 2
Sloppiness: Seattle 19, Arizona 32
Third Downs: Seattle 40%, Arizona 18%

Seattle came off of two tank jobs to get a huge divisional road win. Nobody can tell me those weren't tank jobs now given the monster yardage wins here. Divisional games are most important when winning your division gets you into the playoffs. Seattle is basically a .500 type team or maybe 7-9 when they care...but they care in a crappy division so they will look better than that than the numbers. When they don't care or can afford a loss...they're the worst team in the league. Fair way to say it. Try to get computer averages to show that.

NFC WEST STANDINGS
Seattle 5-4
St. Louis 4-5
Arizona 3-6
San Francisco 3-6

DALLAS 33, NY GIANTS 20
Total Yardage: Dallas 427, NY Giants 480
Yards-Per-Play: Dallas 8.5, NY Giants 6.3
Turnovers: Dallas 1, NY Giants 3
Sloppiness: Dallas 14, NY Giants 30
Third Downs: Dallas 27%, NY Giants 40%

Dallas played great here...AND caught Eli in a mistake-prone game. That led to a game that felt like a bigger blowout than the score makes it seem. Dallas passing line was 13-22-1-324. Hard to get 324 yards on 13 completions. Dallas is still only 2-7, but now that Thanksgiving Day game against New Orleans might at least be worth watching after New England/Detroit. The Giants are 6-3, and are the second straight Football Outsiders #1 team to lay a monster egg after sneaking to the top spot that wasn't deserved.

Back after the Patriots/Steelers game ends...

Early Sunday NFL

2010-11-14T15:42:00.002-06:00

From the early games...

INDIANAPOLIS 23, CINCINNATI 17
Total Yardage: Cincinnati 341, Indianapolis 256
Yards-Per-Play: Cincinnati 5.2, Indianapolis 4.3
Turnovers: Cincinnati 5, Indianapolis 0
Sloppiness: Cincinnati 36, Indianapolis 16
Third Downs: Cincinnati 38%, Indianapolis 35%

The Colts jumped ahead early, thanks in part to a defensive TD. They spent the rest of the game running out the clock. Cincy didn't get to 23-17 until it was too late to really threaten. That's why the Bengals win the yardage stats. Fairly typical Bengals game this year in that respect. Palmer can't move the ball until he's down by more than a score and the opposing defense relaxes a bit. Turnover disaster for the 2-7 Bengals. Colts are 6-3, but are holding themselves together with duct tape and shoestrings.

JACKSONVILLE 31, HOUSTON 24
Total Yardage: Houston 395, Jacksonville 491
Yards-Per-Play: Houston 7.5, Jacksonville 7.1
Turnovers: Houston 1, Jacksonville 0
Sloppiness: Houston 15, Jacksonville 7
Third Downs: Houston 40%, Jacksonville 36%

I've seen a lot of football...so it takes a lot to make me yell "Oh my god I can't believe that!" Mrs. Blog got to hear a rare burst and had to run in to see the replays of Jacksonville's Hail Mary TD catch. Hopefully you've seen it by now. Amazing how many bad things happen to Houston in close games. But...if you're defense is so bad that all you can do is hope to win close games, then you're not a winning franchise anyway. Not much defense here according to the YPP and sloppiness, though botgh stop units did seem to step up on third downs. Jags are 5-4...but more like a 3-6 caliber team. Houston is 4-5, and stuck on the same treadmill to hell that they've been on for many years now.

MIAMI 29, TENNESSEE 17
Total Yardage: Tennessee 259, Miami 404
Yards-Per-Play: Tennessee 4.0, Miami 5.9
Turnovers: Tennessee 3, Miami 1
Sloppiness: Tennessee 35, Miami 18
Third Downs: Tennessee 31%, Miami 52%

Pretty clean rout for the Dolphins based on the numbers. Collins started for Tennessee, and had a bad game. Henne got back in for Miami after getting benched because Pennington's shoulders are made of straw. Dolphins have had a killer schedule this year, yet are still sitting at 5-4. Tennessee is also 5-4...as the Wildcard race continues to stay jammed up.

MINNESOTA 27, CHICAGO 13
Total Yardage: Minnesota 240, Chicago 360
Yards-Per-Play: Minnesota 4.4, Chicago 4.9
Turnovers: Minnesota 4, Chicago 2
Sloppiness: Minnesota 33, Chicago 23
Third Downs: Minnesota 11%, Chicago 57%

This needs to be the last career game for Favre. He reiterated this week that he's retiring at the end of the season. The Vikings are 3-6 now, and should spend the next seven games getting Tavaris Jackson ready for next year. Would Jackson kill them this year? Minny had 4 turnovers, 3 interceptions, and a sloppiness score of 33 with Favre. Jackson would be a big improvement! The Vikings flushed 2010 down the toilet in August and September...and are basically standing around hoping a plumber falls down from the heavens. Good third down mark for Cutler and the Bears, though the other numbers weren't characteristic of a two-TD win. Chicago is 6-3...and still on the Funhouse Mirror list because of a weak schedule.

BUFFALO 14, DETROIT 12
Total Yardage: Detroit 390, Buffalo 290
Yards-Per-Play: Detroit 5.1, Buffalo 5.0
Turnovers: Detroit 1, Buffalo 1
Sloppiness: Detroit 26, Buffalo 17
Third Downs: Detroit 26%, Buffalo 33%

Bills thought they had it wrapped up, but let the Lions drive the field for a TD in the final moments of the game. The two-point conversion failed, so Buffalo gets its first win of the season to move to 1-8. Detroit is 2-7, and happy they have to play so few games in actual weather.

NY JETS 26, CLEVELAND 20 (in OT)
Total Yardage: NY Jets 456, Cleveland 303
Yards-Per-Play: NY Jets 5.0, Cleveland 5.1
Turnovers: NY Jets 1, Cleveland 2
Sloppiness: NY Jets 22, Cleveland 23
Third Downs: NY Jets 52%, Cleveland 33%

The YPP and sloppiness suggest a tight game, but total yardage and third downs show the Jets pretty handily. Guess that means the right team got the win in the big picture. Browns still coming along very well with the new regime, with a 3-6 record reflecting a difficult schedule rather than team quality. The Jets are 7-2...but just played nailbiters in Detroit and Cleveland (after a shutout loss to Green Bay) in a way that suggests they've got some additional work to do if they want to win in January.

TAMPA BAY 31, CAROLINA 16
Total Yardage: Carolina 300, Tampa Bay 421
Yards-Per-Play: Carolina 4.8, Tampa Bay 7.7
Turnovers: Carolina 1, Tampa Bay 2
Sloppiness: Carolina 18, Tampa Bay 16
Third Downs: Carolina 40%, Tampa Bay 50%

Looks like turnovers kept Tampa Bay from winning even bigger. The yardage stats are pretty one-sided, and they convereted half their third down tries. Tampa Bay is 6-3, and sitting with the Bears high up in the Funhouse standings. Carolina is 1-8, and now has a battle with Buffalo to see who can lose out and get the #1 draft pick next year.

Back by halftime of the night game with the late afternoon stat snapshots...

Night Notes

2010-11-13T22:42:00.002-06:00

From the evening games...

*Florida State nailed a 55-yard field goal as time expired to get past Clemson 16-13. Haven't seen stats yet. Looks like a defensive struggle. FSU's defense has really improved since Bowden retired. Offense had been scoring well until the last few weeks. Haven't been watching close enough to see what roadblock they ran into.

*Texas A&M beat Baylor 42-30. The score was a little misleading with Baylor winning total yardage 503-427, rushing yardage 291-147, and not losing anything with sloppiness. Looks like the Bears had some null drives with yards but no points. Nice to see both teams improving this year from recent standards. Texas is falling backward just as almost everyone is taking a step forward.

*Nebraska beat Kansas 20-3, but the stats were more dominant than that. Huskers won yardage 397-87, and held the Jayhawks to 3-13-1-15 in the air. More like a 31-0 kind of game.

*South Carolina flattened Florida 36-14. Solid across the board win, with a 395-226 edge in yardage, 239-35 on the ground, 7-29 in sloppiness, and 50% on third downs while holding the Gators to 2 of 14. Florida's played so badly most of the year, it would have been a crime for them to get to the SEC championship game anyway. Gods of football made sure the right team made it. There will be some good SEC/Big 10 matchups in the New Year's Day games this year most likely.

*Alabama mauled Mississippi State 30-10, in typical grinding Tide fashion.

*Oregon snuck past California 15-13. This was a game many statheads were waiting for because you just can't run that goofy offense to perfection all the time. Oregon only gained 317 yards on the night...and 15 points is usually less than they get in the first third of the game. The highlight shows are making a lot out of Cal's 29-yard missed field goal in the fourth quarter since the margin was only two. Note that it came very early in the fourth quarter...and Oregon ended the game with a 9-minute drive that ran out the clock. It's extremely likely Oregon would have won the game even if Cal had made that field goal. Don't have a cow everyone. Total yardage was 317-193. Cal was only 10-28-0-69 passing. Rare defensive win for the Ducks.

*Stanford beat Arizona State 17-13, with a stat edge that would have suggested something bigger. Total yardage was 420-268. Turnovers and sloppiness were close to even.

*Oklahoma State beat Texas 33-16. It was 33-3 until Texas got some garbage time points...and Mack Brown showed that he didn't know when you were supposed to go for two points. Oklahoma State looked like a legitimate top 15 team...while Texas turned in the same performance we've seen for weeks. This is what a top 15 team does on the road vs. lousy Big 12 teams. Texas is a lousy big 12 team.

*USC beat Arizona 24-21, even though Foles returned to the lineup for Arizona. Didn't see final stats. Nothing jumped out in a late game look at the numbers.

Back by halftime of the late afternoon NFL games Sunday with early stats...

Midday Saturday Notes

2010-11-13T19:47:00.002-06:00

From the midday games...

*Maryland beat Virginia 42-23, with across the board stat edges. They probably weren't 19 points better in the big picture, but a 425-382 yardage edge and 11-31 in sloppiness show the right team won and covered.

*Syracuse outlasted Rutgers 13-10. Actually watched the last 10 minutes here because I had a feeling Penn State and Georgia weren't going to provide much upset excitement once those games started to turn. Typically defensive Big East battle. Rutgers blew a field goal opportunity that would have given them a late lead. Syracuse took over...and marched right down the field on the ground to set up their own field goal attempt...which they converted. Rutgers actually won most of the stats, and was up handily in stats before that late Syracuse drive. Rutgers takes rushing yardage, third downs, and sloppiness. Orangemen won anyway, and are 4-2 in Big East play.

*Oklahoma beat Texas Tech 45-7 in the local ABC game down here. Thank goodness there were so many other games on. Total yardage was 562-326. If OU could ever figure out how to play consistently away from home they'd return to national prominence. You don't win championships with home blowouts...particularly when your road losses to Missouri and A&M were on TV.

*Auburn had a bit of a thrill with Georgia (down 21-7 after one quarter) before pulling away to a 49-31 victory. Both Oregon and Auburn close hard...which means you either need to be WAY ahead in the second half to have a chance for an upset...or you need to focus only on running clock in the third and fourth quarters. Not something that's easy to pull off vs. quality. Total yardage was 463-354 for Auburn. Alabama and the winner of the SEC East will certainly have decent shots to take them out. Whoever wins the SEC has a brutal schedule.

*Ohio State pulled away from Penn State 38-14, after trailing 14-3 at the half. The Buckeyes had two pick-six TD's on defense. But, it's not like it was a stolen win. Total yardage was 453-272, and rushing yardage was 314-113. Kind of hoping Ohio State matches up against TCU or Boise in a bowl so we can get a sense of physicality for those mid-majors. It looks to the naked eye like TCU or Boise are big enough to hold their own. Need to see it on the same field for 60 minutes.

*Virginia Tech beat North Carolina 26-10, enjoying a whopping 6-0 turnover edge plus 418-314 in yardage. Tech normally wins by more than that when they get the TO's. Sloppiness was 15-45 for the Hokies. They're undefeated since the James Madison debacle, but I'm just not that impressed. Which means it's hard to be impressed with Boise in the national picture given their coin flip season opener head-to-head.

*TCU fell asleep with a 40-21 lead...and held on to beat San Diego State 40-35. Total yardage was still big for the Horned Frogs, with a 466-300 edge. Rushing yardage was 226-38. They held SDSU to 11-26 passing, but somehow those 11 completions went for 262 yards! Lack of style points likely to hurt here for the four-TD favorite.

*Washington State upset disinterested Oregon State 31-14 as 24-point underdogs. You have to be disinterested to lose to Washington State! The huge dog won yardage 378-261, and sloppiness 15-25. Oregon State may have decided their rivalry finale with Oregon is all that matters from this point on. Funny that one team will have faced TCU, Boise State, and Oregon in the same year. A shame it's a team that couldn't beat Washington State.

Will try to come back after the prime time games have ended to briefly run the numbers in the big games...

Early Saturday Notes

2010-11-13T17:49:00.002-06:00

Just going to run notes from the early games...

*West Virginia beat Cincinnati 37-10 with the stat dominance you would expect from that kind of score. West Virginia does this a few times a year, people seem to expect it much more often. A rushing edge of 245-60, and a sloppiness edge of 20-40. Tough first year for the Cincy head coach, as the Bearcats fall to 3-6 in a bad conference.

*Southern Miss stunned newly ranked Central Florida 31-21. Sometimes kids spend too much time reading press clippings about themselves after something important happens. Southern won yardage 414-335, and converted 11 of 16 third downs. Looks like a lack of intensity for Central defensively off the rankings achievement. both teams are 7-3 now.

*Boston College dumped Duke 21-16, with a rushing edge of 126-4 and a sloppiness edge of 18-27. Fairly close overall outside of those indicators.

*Miami of Florida beat Georgia Tech 35-10. The stats were closer than the score in a battle of backup quarterbacks. Yotal yardage was 507-409. Most everything was even except Miami broke some long pass plays for a 230-101 passing yardage edge on almost the same number of attempts (17-18). Not really a 35-10 win...but the right team won and covered. Tech's starting QB Nesbitt broke his arm vs. Virginia Tech and is out for the season.

*Northwestern stunned Iowa 21-17 as a 10-point underdog. Of course, they do this every to Iowa, so it's not much of a stunner any more! You'd think Iowa would learn to prepare for this group eventually. Hawkeyes were just 2 of 14 on third downs against a soft defense. I think Iowa coach Kirk Frerentz is EXTREMELY overrated in terms of his national reputation. But...he is good enough to make a run at 8-9 wins every year vs. a soft schedule...so he is better than a lot of other guys. Wish the media would dwell more on the inexplicable results like this that crop up a couple of times a year. Clean win with NW winning yardage 412-370 and sloppiness 16-25 along with third downs. NW starting QB hurt his Achilles tendon very late, and I think is out for the year (going from memory off a brief highlight clip I heard).

*Michigan beat Purdue 27-16, with a very quiet yardage game after the overtime marathon with Illinois last week. Michigan was in a letdown spot, and out of gas. Purdue is so horrible they couldn't take advantage (though they did cover +12). Michigan wins yardage 395-244. Both teams had FIVE turnovers. That led to a sloppiness win of 36-40 for the Wolverines.

*Wisconsin annihilated Indiana 83-20. Wisconsin loves running over and through people, so it's hard for them NOT to run up the score when the other team lays down. They just bowl people over and keep scooting. Yardage was only 597-316. I say "only" because you expect something like 700-750 yards when you see 83 points scored. Indiana had nothing left after the blown upset of Iowa last week, when they dropped the game winning TD pass on the last play of the game.

*Minnesota upset Illinois 38-34. Illini were gassed after the Michigan game, and didn't have any legs when needed to protect what should have been an easy win. Illini were 21-point favorites. Total yardage was actually 410-361 for Illinois, and turnovers were even. So...a couple of little things here or there cost them the win. They're only 5-5 now, and now a sure thing for a bowl just yet.

*NC State wiped out Wake Forest 38-3. Stats weren't quite that dominant...but were dominant enough that the right team won and covered (387-188 in yardage, big edge in third down conversions).

*Kentucky ran past Vandy 38-20 after trailing at the half. Total yardage was 580-400, and the sloppiness edge was 8-27.

*Colorado beat Iowa State 34-14, as the Cyclones were out of gas after the heartbreaking loss to Nebraska last week. There are some computer types that just treat every game evenly. If you do that, and don't adjust for when people are out of gas...you end up with some goofy conclusions being drawn in a garbage in, garbage out kind of way. Iowa State's the better team obviously. But, a wiped out Iowa State team (physically and emotionally) isn't.

*BYU crushed Colorado State 49-10. I was hard on BYU earlier this season, so I wanted to post a good result for them. Total yardage on the road was 526-375, with rushing yardage at 284-83. Dr. Bob had a good write up here, pointing out that BYU coach Mendenhall had fired the defensive coordinator and re-taken over play calling duties on defense. They really have been much more impressive since then.

*Notre Dame nailed Utah 28-3, with the Utes lacking life after getting humilated by TCU last week. Tough to play like men your last opponent showed the world your voice hadn't changed yet. ND had a blocked punt return for a TD, and actually lost total yardage 265-256. Irish did win rushing yardage 127-71, and sloppiness 7-26.

*Missouri beat Kansas State 38-28, failing to really impress or cover the spread. Total yardage was just 440-422. It was a sloppiness win for Mizzou with a 14-31 edge in that stat. Some computers still have Missouri very high. They're not playing to that rating lately.

*South Florida limped past Louisville 24-21 in overtime (only alliteration would get limped into a description!). South Florida was outgained 328-259, and outrushed 182-172. They won sloppiness 13-25, which was enough to get by. Can't have an eight-way tie in the Big East because everyone plays 7 games. Still rooting for four teams at 4-3, and four teams at 3-4.

*Tennessee beat Ole Miss 52-14. Ole Miss quarterback Masoli left last week's game early with a concussion. He got cleared to play here, but WAS OBVIOUSLY NOT HIMSELF because he kept throwing very innacurate passes...two of which were intercepted and returned for TD's. It's amazing that Houston Nutt kept running Masoli out there as the Tennessee lead went from 21-0 to 31-14 to 45-14 with Masoli performing so badly. It doesn't matter what the doctor's say. Coaches are taking FOREVER to understand the impact of concussions on quarterbacks. You don't get over one in a week, even if you can stand up straight and throw the ball.

Back later this evening with the midday games...

Thursday Night Football/NBA

2010-11-11T22:46:00.003-06:00

From a high quality Thursday Night in sports...

ATLANTA 26, BALTIMORE 21
Total Yardage: Baltimore 320, Atlanta 362
Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.6, Atlanta 4.8
Passing Lines: Baltimore 20-34-1-204, Atlanta 32-50-0-302
Turnovers: Baltimore 2, Atlanta 0
Sloppiness: Baltimore 24, Atlanta 18
Third Downs: Baltimore 54%, Atlanta 60%

Kind of a yawner much of the night...but then a dramatic finale with Baltimore rallying from a 20-7 deficit when the Falcons relaxed too soon. Baltimore went up 21-20 with about a minute left (and this was lucky because Atlanta was on the verge of running out the clock with a 20-14 lead but dropped a pass that would have converted a third down). One minute was too much time. The Falcons only needed a field goal, but ended up breaking a big play for the game winning TD.

The stats are a bit misleading because Baltimore didn't do much until they were down 20-7. Atlanta added a bunch of yards on that late drive. You could say it should have been a 20-14 Falcons win and nobody would argue with you. The stats at that time would have painted that picture with yardage and sloppiness mixed together. It all came out in the wash okay. Though, neither defense impressed when the game was on the line.

Atlanta moves to 7-2, and is in good shape for a bye in the NFC given what's ahead from this point forward. Baltimore falls to 6-3...which hurts in a tight AFC playoff picture, but is far from fatal. If the Ravens knew what to do late in close games on both sides of the ball they'd be in a mini-dynasty right now. Just not there yet.

CONNECTICUT 30, PITTSBURGH 28
Total Yardage: Pittsburgh 363, Connecticut 349
Yards-Per-Play:Pittsburgh 5.9, Connecticut 5.3
Rushing Yards:Pittsburgh 143, Connecticut 249
Turnovers:Pittsburgh 3, Connecticut 1
Sloppiness:Pittsburgh 23, Connecticut 16

UCONN had a kick return TD, which helped them overcome a YPP deficit and gain a victory. Well, that and the sloppiness edge. Actually, they probably could have won by more than they did! I included rushing yardage because this was a plodding game most of the night. UCONN won convincingly even though Pittsburgh was supposed to have a Heisman Trophy back this year. And, at the end, UCONN ran out the clock with their run game...including a extremely gutsy fourth day play in their own territory that iced the win. The Big East basically has eight teams who are about 45th to 55th in the country give or take a few spots, and they all keep beating each other. One of them will get to play in a BCS bowl where they will be outmatched. But, the rest who qualify for bowls will probably show up and give a good effort in games their opponents can't take for granted. It's an ugly league, but they play compelling games against each other.

NBA NOTES

*Chicago routed Golden State with the Warriors in a b2b spot and 4th game in five nights. A complete no-show for the Warriors. Don't even bother worrying about the game stats. They might only matter again the next time Golden State is off a win in the 4/5 spot on the schedule.

*Boston beat Miami AGAIN, and showed AGAIN that the Heat are weak inside and vulnerable to quality point guards. Ray Allen was hot from behind the arc too (7 of 9 for the game), which helped Boston build a big lead that they almost blew (just like in the first meeting a couple of weeks ago). Miami is now 5-4 through nine games...when some were thinking about a 20-0 start or something. I think the world is now realizing that Bosh is a scorer who does little else...which is the last thing you need on a team that already has LeBron and Wade. You need guys to do the other stuff! Amazing that he created the illusion of a three musketeers situation. Glad so many statheads and teamwork guys were skeptical about him in this kind of situation.

Going to skip Friday Night because the college football games probably won't be compelling, and I'd rather save up the writing energy for a college football Saturday. See you midday Saturday to run numbers from the early finishers.

Funhouse Mirror League Update

2010-11-09T22:30:00.002-06:00

Last week I introduced the Funhouse Mirror League, which is the 12 NFL teams from the AFC West, NFC West, and NFC South that are set to play soft schedules this year. I'm going to add in a couple of other teams temporarily just because they may have misleading records too. Here's the latest standings for this subgroup:

FUNHOUSE LEAGUE (strength of schedule)
Atlanta 6-2 (13th schedule)
NY Giants 6-2 (28th schedule, added this week)
New Orleans 6-3 (29th schedule)
Tampa Bay 5-3 (19th schedule)
Kansas City 5-3 (26th schedule)
Chicago 5-3 (32nd schedule, added this week)
Oakland 5-4 (30th schedule)
Seattle 4-4 (27th schedule)
St. Louis 4-4 (31st schedule)
San Diego 4-5 (21st schedule)
Arizona 3-5 (10th schedule)
Denver 2-6 (11th schedule)
San Francisco 2-6 (23rd schedule)
Carolina 1-7 (24th schedule)

Chicago's definitely a team that belongs here. Their indicator stats are nowhere near 5-3 even vs. a horrible schedule. I'm not sure about the Giants. They've looked great in their best games. But, running up the score on horrible teams isn't the same as being a Super Bowl threat, as Baltimore proved again last year. I'm going to stick them here so we can watch and learn. The Giants play the Cowboys this week, so it may be awhile before we can make a determination on them.

Wanted to get the whole list up first for the update. Let me trim down now to look only at teams who are seen as contenders but have played polluted schedules ranked 26th or worse:

NY Giants 6-2 (28th schedule, added this week)
New Orleans 6-3 (29th schedule)
Kansas City 5-3 (26th schedule)
Chicago 5-3 (32nd schedule, added this week)
Oakland 5-4 (30th schedule)
Seattle 4-4 (27th schedule)
St. Louis 4-4 (31st schedule)

Again, the Giants are a question mark to me. I feel guilty putting them on the list but that 28th ranking shouldn't be ignored. New Orleans might be too, but they are showing better form of late. From Kansas City on down, I think a reasonable case can be made that everyone would be two games worse vs. a normal schedule. We're looking at 3-5, 3-4, or 2-6 type teams in terms of true caliber. Respected Power Ratings are already in line with that assessment. I'm surprised by how many other methodologies are still being polluted by strength of schedule issues.

Note that those seven teams either played other Funhouse opponents, had a bye, or faced 0-8 Buffalo last week (Chicago). Be careful investing in any of these teams vs. quality...particularly anyone in the NFC West.

See you Wednesday Night...

Tuesday Night NBA

2010-11-09T22:11:00.002-06:00

From Tuesday's early finishers...

INDIANA 144, DENVER 113
Two-Point Shooting: Denver 42%, Indiana 70%
Rebound Percentage: Denver 42%, Indiana 58%
Imposing of Will: Denver 128, Indiana 84
Three-Pointers: Denver 8/17, Indiana 16/30

Denver was on night two of a b2b, and didn't bother playing defense. Not a good sign for team chemistry or enthusiasm. Turned out last night's game with Chicago was faster than I thought. When I looked up the boxscore at hoopdata, it showed 101 possessions. So, Denver was off a fast, if low scoring game the night before. They sure played that way here....as Imposing of Will suggests. Indiana didn't need all the treys to win easily.

CLEVELAND 93, NEW JERSEY 91
Three-Pointers: Cleveland 9/17, New Jersey 6/20
Free Throws: Cleveland 12/22, New Jersey 19/21

That was basically the margin there, so no need to run other numbers. Cleveland was +9 on treys, -7 on FT's, and won the game by two. Defensive struggle, with 42% on deuces for the Cavs, and 44% for the Nets. Not surprising with these teams and Avery Johnson on one of hte sidelines. Total stayed Under by double digits...and was on pace for the Under all night.

UTAH 116, MIAMI 114 in overtime
Two-Point Scoring: Utah 50%, Miami 45%
Rebound Percentage:Utah 49%, Miami 51%
Imposing of Will:Utah 96, Miami 99
Three-Pointers:Utah 8/19, Miami 6/19
Free Throws: Utah 18/21, Miami 36/47

What the...gave up on this as a TV event early because Miami had coasted to a 51-32 halftime lead (and VH1 was airing a documentary about "Soul Train" that was pretty cool). Couldn't believe it when I saw the final. Utah rallied from way down thanks to 46 points from Millsap (physical guys are killing Miami inside this year) and 14 assists and 21 points from Deron Williams (good point guards are killing Miami this year too!). Looks like the Heat started thinking about the Boston rematch a bit too soon (set for Thursday Night on TNT). But, maybe not! Miami's glaring weaknesses can be exploited by the right kinds of teams (Paul and Okefor did that for NO this past weekend). This is going to be a big deal in the postseason if it's not addressed. Miami's now 5-3 this year...and people were talking about 72-10 and crazy stuff like that when the Three Musketeers were posing for cameras before the season started. It's a weird split...because Miami will KILL teams who can't hurt them...but then competent teams with talent at the right spots can run up and play David and Achilles with them. Utah will probably be dead tired tomorrow night in Orlando.

MILWAUKEE 107, NEW YORK 80
Two-Point Shooting: New York 42%, Milwaukee 56%
Rebound Percentage: New York 43%, Milwaukee 57%
Imposing of Will: New York 113, Milwaukee 85

This is the FEAR THE DEER stuff we were waiting for. Good matchup for the Bucks, and the Knicks fell so far behind early (41-19 after one) that both teams kind of played out the string after that (43-37 second half for the Bucks, very low scoring for a Knicks game). Bucks forced 20 turnovers too.

NEW ORLEANS 101, LA CLIPPERS 82
Three-Pointers: LA Clippers 5/16, New Orleans 8/16
Turnovers: LA Clippers 25, New Orleans 13

Most of the other stuff was even. Clips actually won rebounding. But, turnovers were huge for the hosts...and the bench played very well. Note that Kaman left after just 7 minutes with a sprained ankle. Some years it seems like he's made of peanut brittle. Baron Davis has been showing some more poison tendencies. They had ugly results with him...then showed well when he was held out. Tonight, he only played 10 minutes. Wish Vinny would decide what to do with him so I know when to take them or fade them. Hornets are an amazing story thus far...looking like they may become this year's Oklahoma City in terms of storming out of the gate and keeping it going until starters get hurt. New coach Monty Williams is looking great in the effort numbers. Rare to find pro teams who act like they care EVERY time they take the court.

Won't get to the late games tonight. Back in a bit with an Funhouse Update in the NFL...

Pittsburgh Survives Cincy

2010-11-08T22:54:00.002-06:00

Odd game...with neither team doing much to earn points with their offenses, but each getting field position breaks from turnovers or special teams in a way that created a high scoring game. Cincinnati came very close to stealing a win at the end too...dying deep in Pittsburgh territory on a 4th down play. Pittsburgh had earlier missed a field goal that would have won it.

ESPN's announcers rallied late like they were watching a heavyweight fight. It just wasn't that great a game on the whole, though the finish was sure dramatic.

PITTSBURGH 27, CINCINNATI 21
Total Yardage: Pittsburgh 314, Cincinnati 272
Yards-Per-Play: Pittsburgh 5.1, Cincinnati 4.7
Turnovers:Pittsburgh 2, Cincinnati 2
Sloppiness:Pittsburgh 20, Cincinnati 24

That's very close to being a dead ringer for the Pittsburgh/New Orleans game that was 13-10 last Sunday Night until the final moments.

Total Yardage: Pittsburgh 279, New Orleans 318
Yards-Per-Play:Pittsburgh 5.4, New Orleans 4.7
Turnovers:Pittsburgh 2, New Orleans 2
Sloppiness: Pittsburgh 21, New Orleans 20

One landed on 48 with cheap points...one landed on 30 without much happening until the very end. Very similar games.

Anyway, noticed that and wanted to pass it along. I was sitting there in the first half thinking, "Man, this is just like the Saints game last week except Pittsburgh's getting cheap points." Then, when I saw the stats they were pretty darned close.

Pittsburgh's now 6-2...but not really setting the world on fire with Big Ben. Cincinnati is 2-6 against a very tough schedule. They're better than most of the Funhouse Mirror teams from last week's blog...but not good enough to be a playoff team in the AFC this year.

From late Sunday action, as promised...

GREEN BAY 45, DALLAS 7
Total Yardage: Dallas 205, Green Bay 415
Yards-Per-Play:Dallas 4.3, Green Bay 5.8
Turnovers: Dallas 4, Green Bay 0
Sloppiness: Dallas 31, Green Bay 8
Third Downs: Dallas 40%, Green Bay 67%

Not much of a game, as you probably know. Wade Phillips was fired Monday morning because it was apparent the team was pretty much in the tank on both sides of the ball.

Back Tuesday Night with something from NBA and maybe NFL too...

Monday NBA

2010-11-08T21:59:00.002-06:00

Will come back later after the football ends to wrap up the night. The six NBA games are over. Figured I'd throw down some snapshots from those games. There's an old school strategy that says you should generally think about Unders on Monday Nights in the NBA when crowd size is low (and Tuesdays as well to a lesser extent), but Overs on Fridays and Saturdays when crowd sizes are bigger. As more and more teams emphasized defense, that took away some of weekend sizzle. If teams are channeling the crowd into more intense defense, you don't want Overs! Anyway, was thinking about that tonight after seeing all six games go Over. Be sure you REALLY like an Over on a Monday night is the lesson there I guess...

SAN ANTONIO 95, CHARLOTTE 91
Two-Point Shooting: San Antonio 41%, Charlotte 42%
Rebound Percentage: San Antonio 53%, Charlotte 47%
Imposing of Will: San Antonio 89, Charlotte 94
Three-Pointers: San Antonio 12/26, Charlotte 6/19

Defensive struggle, with the Spurs looking like their old selves rather than the team that hasn't been playing much defense this year. Something about facing slow Charlotte on a Monday will do that to you. Only stayed Under by a point or two anyway, so the market pretty much had it pegged. Took a bunch of treys to get into the mid 180's though, didn't it. And for the Spurs to get the win.

GOLDEN STATE 109, TORONTO 102
Two-Point Shooting: Golden State 59%, Toronto 49%
Rebound Percentage:Golden State 57%, Toronto 43%
Imposing of Will: Golden State 92, Toronto 116
Turnovers: Golden State 20, Toronto 16

This was a GREAT showing for the Warriors, who were in a back-to-back spot after playing in Detroit last night. Imposing of Will makes it very clear who was trying and who was just going through the motions. Turnovers were a problem though, as the Warriors are still trying to learn how to play more team ball in a halfcourt game. They're running less under new coach Keith Smart, particularly since Curry hurt his ankle. He's back, but they may be trying to protect it. Haven't seen tonight's tempo yet. Last two games had been 97 and 93 after averaging over 100 possessions per game prior. Good things happening for the Warriors since Nelson left. Effort means everything in a league where a third of the teams are just cashing paychecks.

ORLANDO 93, ATLANTA 89
Two-Point Shooting: Atlanta 51%, Orlando 52%
Three-Pointers: Atlanta 4/13, Orlando 4/22
Turnovers: Atlanta 15, Orlando 10

A shame such a great matchup was relegated to a Monday Night. So few teams in the East can really play! Looks like turnovers were the main difference, as everything else cancelled out (if I'm not posting Imposing of Will, it's because it wasn't a factor).

CHICAGO 94, DENVER 92
Two-Point Shooting: Denver 45%, Chicago 42%
Three-Pointers:Denver 7/18, Chicago 5/18
Free Throws:Denver 17/24, Chicago 21/33
Turnovers: Denver 18, Chicago 15

Very tight game, with good defensive numbers for both. Chicago didn't sparkle on free throws or they wouldn't have had to sweat the ending. Carmelo Anthony took 22 shots and had 1 assist. I'm not sure what to make of the Nuggets thus far. I'm mostly skeptical. But, it's not like they're disappearing from view or anything.

MEMPHIS 109, PHOENIX 99
Two-Point Shooting: Phoenix 59%, Memphis 51%
Three-Pointers: Phoenix 9/31, Memphis 5/15
Free Throws: Phoenix 14/21, Memphis 24/28
Turnovers: Phoenix 22, Memphis 14

Memphis has just been amazing lately. There was a lot of skepticism about this team entering the season from what I was reading. They just completed a great four-game in five-night stretch...capped off with a win at Sacramento when they should have been out of gas off a double overtime game in Phoenix. They're back home for a fifth game in seven nights, and they get fired up for the rematch with the Suns. If this was just a revenge effort, then they'll fall back to earth this week. If they're on a mission...this is a team to keep backing.

DALLAS 89, BOSTON 87
Two-Point Shooting: Boston 41%, Dallas 53%
Three-Pointers: Boston 4/8, Dallas 6/15
Free Throws: Boston 7/7, Dallas 17/20
Turnovers: Boston 11, Dallas 15

That's some offensive rebounding in there for the Celtics, you can deduce from the numbers. They had to keep missing, then missing their putbacks, then eventually making a putback to trail two-point shooting AND treys AND free throws but still be in the ballgame at the end. Looked like a playoff game in the numbers...or one of those Monday Night slowdown games. Boston was in a b2b spot after a Sunday Night win in Oklahoma City. They almost got the sweep by making two Western teams play their style.

Back when the football game ends. About eight minutes left in the fourth quarter as I type this...

Not going to stay up

2010-11-07T21:50:00.002-06:00

It's 35-7 Green Bay and the fourth quarter is just starting. I'll run the numbers tomorrow night after Pitt/Cincy ends for both prime time games. See you then...

Late Sunday Afternoon

2010-11-07T18:54:00.003-06:00

From the late kicks...

NY GIANTS 41, SEATTLE 7
Total Yardage: NY Giants 487, Seattle 162
Yards-Per-Play:NY Giants 6.2, Seattle 4.4
Passing Lines: NY Giants 21-32-0-290, Seattle 12-23-2-113
Turnovers: NY Giants 1, Seattle 3
Sloppiness: NY Giants 16, Seattle 26
Third Downs: NY Giants 46%, Seattle 12%

It's as if the Seahawks knew they had no chance with Whitehurst, and took their beating like men so they could come back next week with a better chance of getting a win. Seattle is still 4-4 in a lousy division, and in good shape to take the undeserving playoff spot that the NFC West is going to get in a funhouse mirror schedule year. The Giants are 6-2...joining the list of teams at 6-2 who look great some weeks but not so great in others.

OAKLAND 23, KANSAS CITY 20 (in OT)
Total Yardage: Kansas City 304, Oakland 321
Yards-Per-Play:Kansas City 4.2, Oakland 5.0
Passing Lines: Kansas City 20-35-1-200, Oakland 19-34-1-209
Turnovers: Kansas City 2, Oakland 3
Sloppiness: Kansas City 25, Oakland 30
Third Downs: Kansas City 20%, Oakland 25%

Both teams are moving quickly in the right direction. Turned out to be a close game that could have gone either way. More of a defensive struggle than the score makes it sound given the awful third down conversions (6 of 27 combined) and sloppiness numbers. They're not championship material by any means. But...there are signs of life with both franchises now. Kansas City is 5-3, Oakland is 5-4, and San Diego has risen up to 4-5 to set up a race to the finish in the AFC West.

PHILADELPHIA 26, INDIANAPOLIS 24
Total Yardage: Indianapolis 336, Philadelphia 402
Yards-Per-Play: Indianapolis 4.7, Philadelphia 6.4
Passing Lines: Indianapolis 30-51-2-274, Philadelphia 17-29-0-207
Turnovers: Indianapolis 2, Philadelphia 0
Sloppiness: Indianapolis 31, Philadelphia 12
Third Downs: Indianapolis 42%, Philadelphia 46%

The Colts entered the game shorthanded, then Collie to a knockout blow. They were mostly out of the game in the 2H, but a late TD backdoored the cover for them. The Eagles really should have won by more than two given their YPP and sloppiness edges. But...Peyton Manning has a way of getting the most out of his yardage. And, the Indy defense does a better job than many realize of bending before giving up field goals instead of TD's.

Back after the Sunday Night game with the Cowboys/Packers stats...

Early Sunday NFL

2010-11-07T17:12:00.003-06:00

Had to run some errands midday, so I'm putting them all in one post. In rotation order...

CHICAGO 22, BUFFALO 19
Total Yardage: Chicago 283, Buffalo 340
Yards-per-Play: Chicago 4.6, Buffalo 4.9
Passing Lines: Chicago 17-30-0-178, Buffalo 31-52-2-294
Turnovers: Chicago 1, Buffalo 3
Sloppiness: Chicago 18, Buffalo 36
Third Downs: Chicago 58%, Buffalo 62%

Sloppiness win for the Bears, so don't go buying those playoff tickets yet. They do move to 5-3 though thanks to one of the easiest schedules in the league (30th in Sagarin entering the weekend BEFORE playing the league's only winless team). Note that Cutler stayed restrained, avoided interceptions, and the Bears managed to eke one out.

SAN DIEGO 29, HOUSTON 23
Total Yardage: San Diego 367, Houston 391
Yards-per-Play: San Diego 7.3, Houston 5.8
Passing Lines: San Diego 17-23-1-290, Houston 21-32-1-251
Turnovers: San Diego 2, Houston 1
Sloppiness: San Diego 16, Houston 16
Third Downs: San Diego 44%, Houston 46%

Fun game to watch. The teams felt like they were movign the ball in a 475-450 way in terms of the total yardage. But, the clock ran enough with relatively few incomplete passes that the game worked its way to a quick finish. Houston was about to win 30-29 when a pass bounced off a receiver's knee into SD's hands for an interception. Bad luck for Houston. But, when you rely on the pass to beat people, goofy things happen. That's why these teams are 4-5 (SD) and 4-4 (Hou) with offenses that would suggest six wins apiece.

NEW ORLEANS 34, CAROLINA 3
Total Yardage: New Orleans 408, Carolina 195
Yards-per-Play:New Orleans 5.4, Carolina 3.0
Passing Lines:New Orleans 27-43-1-243, Carolina 17-36-1-68
Turnovers:New Orleans 1, Carolina 2
Sloppiness:New Orleans 21, Carolina 29
Third Downs:New Orleans 50%, Carolina 8%

Rare to see a passing line ike 17-36-1-68. Hard to get only 68 passing yards on 16 completions or 36 attempts...particularly 36 attempts! Carolina's offense really is that bad. No options at QB. Saints were pretty sloppy themselves for a team winning a 34-3 ballgame.

MINNESOTA 27, ARIZONA 24 in OT
Total Yardage: Arizona 225, Minnesota 507
Yards-per-Play: Arizona 4.2, Minnesota 7.2
Passing Lines: Arizona 16-27-0-172, Minnesota 36-47-2-427
Turnovers: Arizona 1, Minnesota 3
Sloppiness: Arizona 16, Minnesota 26
Third Downs: Arizona 23%, Minnesota 25%

Scoreboard watching made it seem like the Vikings were laying down to get Childress fired. And, maybe they were on the kickoff return. But, Brett Favre loves a challenge...so if half the team was in the tank, he was going to pass for over 400 yards so he could get another storybook win and be the hero again. Honestly, I didn't see any of the game...so I don't know what was going on. The stats say it was a Minnesota slaughter outside of the sloppiness that's been messing up Favre all season. Arizona is still lousy on the road in terms of stat accumulation, but almost stole a win here thanks to two non-offensive TD's.

ATLANTA 27, TAMPA BAY 21
Total Yardage: Tampa Bay 278, Atlanta 365
Yards-per-Play: Tampa Bay 5.6, Atlanta 5.3
Passing Lines: Tampa Bay 11-22-2-182, Atlanta 24-36-0-235
Turnovers: Tampa Bay 2, Atlanta 0
Sloppiness: Tampa Bay 21, Atlanta 12
Third Downs: Tampa Bay 61%, Atlanta 57%

Tampa Bay had a kickoff return TD, meaning this was more like a 27-14 game. But, the stats are fairly close all things considered. Tampa Bay won YPP but lost sloppiness. Both teams converted a lot of third downs. Tampa Bay's coming along nicely. Atlanta's defense is going to cause the Falcons headaches in the playoffs I expect.

NY JETS 23, DETROIT 20 in OT
Total Yardage: NY Jets 437, Detroit 306
Yards-per-Play: NY Jets 6.2, Detroit 4.6
Passing Lines: NY Jets 22-39-1-327, Detroit 20-37-0-228
Turnovers: NY Jets 2, Detroit 0
Sloppiness: NY Jets 27, Detroit 17
Third Downs: NY Jets 38%, Detroit 33%

Jets pulled one out of the fire here, but it looks like they caused their own troubles with sloppiness. You can see the big yardage and YPP edges. Though those probably came in the rallying drives that forced overtime. A good sign for Sanchez that he pulled this one out. But, a bad sign they needed a borderline miracle finish to beat somebody like the Lions.

BALTIMORE 26, MIAMI 10
Total Yardage: Miami 289, Baltimore 402
Yards-per-Play: Miami 5.5, Baltimore 5.7
Passing Lines: Miami 22-34-3-216, Baltimore 21-28-0-256
Turnovers: Miami 3, Baltimore 0
Sloppiness: Miami 27, Baltimore 7
Third Downs: Miami 50%, Baltimore 46%

A sloppiness win for Baltimore...with the Miami turnovers giving Baltimore the ball more often in a way that let them run up +113 yards on almost the same YPP. This looks more like the Baltimore team people are expecting to contend for the Super Bowl. Miami was in a tough schedule spot in a second road game in a season that's had a brutal schedule (#5 in Sagarin before playing the Ravens). Miami should be proud of a 4-4 start in context. Baltimore's 6-2, tied for best in the league with a few teams now.

CLEVELAND 34, NEW ENGLAND 14
Total Yardage: New England 283, Cleveland 404
Yards-per-Play: New England 4.8, Cleveland 6.4
Passing Lines: New England 19-38-1-215, Cleveland 14-19-0-174
Turnovers: New England 3, Cleveland 1
Sloppiness: New England 34, Cleveland 10
Third Downs: New England 27%, Cleveland 53%

Yes, the headline would have been COLT MCCOY BEATS DREW BREES AND TOM BRADY IN SUCCESSIVE APPEARANCES, ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?! Good outing for McCoy, who continued to conservatively avoid mistakes. This time he got some stuff done too (most of the points vs. the Saints were cheap or off weird plays). He ran for a score on a scramble in addition to helping the team convert 53% of its third downs and top 6 ypp. So, signs of growth for McCoy...but mostly more evidence that New England's defense really isn't up to snuff. They were 6-1 anyway coming in....but you can see that Tom Brady has to play GREAT for the Pats to win. Too much of a burden to put on the QB. I guess there are reasons to be skeptical about all the contenders right now because nobody's really great. New England's defense is their reason for skepticism. Cleveland had played the 2nd toughest schedule before facing the team with the best record in the league. A 3-5 start in that context...given their QB situation...is a good sign for the Holmgren era.

Back by halftime of the prime time game with the late afternoon stats...

Late Saturday Stuff

2010-11-06T23:04:00.002-05:00

From the marquee night games...

ARKANSAS 41, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
Total Yardage: Arkansas 443, South Carolina 295
Yards-Per-Play: Arkansas 6.5, South Carolina 4.9
Turnovers: Arkansas 2, South Carolina 3
Sloppiness: Arkansas 19, South Carolina 30

When the media spends all week telling a team that the only game that really matters is next week at Florida, the players will eventually believe them. South Carolina had its mind on other things, and got outclassed badly here considering it was a home game.

TEXAS A&M 33, OKLAHOMA 19
Total Yardage: Oklahoma 362, Texas A&M 382
Yards-Per-Play: Oklahoma 3.5, Texas A&M 5.5
Turnovers: Oklahoma 1, Texas A&M 2
Sloppiness: Oklahoma 29, Texas A&M 23

Oklahoma ran 104 plays! So, that YPP is important to note. It looks like yardage was about even...but YPP shows A&M doing much more on a per-play basis. Oklahoma has been being over backwards to show people they're basically the same team as last year rather than a national power. Now, the losses to Missouri and A&M should help get them down closer to where they belong in the rankings. They didn't impress early. And, almost all of those games look even worse now than they did at the line (especially playing a close game with Texas).

KANSAS STATE 39, TEXAS 14
Total Yardage: Texas 412, Kansas State 270
Yards-Per-Play: Texas 5.5, Kansas State 5.0
Turnovers: Texas 5, Kansas State 0
Sloppiness: Texas 52, Kansas State 2

Yes, the sloppiness score was 52-2. Yardage was about even until Texas had two 70+ drives after falling behind 39-0. When I'm more awake, I'll go into a long spiel about how Gilbert is just Chris Simms all over again. You're hearing some of that down here in the Austin media. It may not be registering nationally. They're just going to keep letting the kid throw interceptions because he looks so darned impressive in his uniform. This isn't a program that learns from its mistakes. It's a program that tries to cover it's mistakes by recruiting super-duper stars. This current collection turned out to be not so super.

TEXAS TECH 24, MISSOURI 17
Total Yardage: Missouri 355, Texas Tech 485
Yards-Per-Play: Missouri 5.8, Texas Tech 4.8
Turnovers: Missouri 1, Texas Tech 2
Sloppiness: Missouri 23, Texas Tech 30

Didn't see much of the game. Missouri had two long drives early that came on something like 2 and 3 plays. Looks like they busted long runs because Gabbert was a hideous 12-30-0-95 passing. Big 12 teams take turns looking horrible so that, eventually, they all seem pretty bad. Bowl performances weren't great last year. Could see a replay this year for those that become bowl eligible. Texas has to beat either Okie State or A&M or they won't be bowl eligible. Note that Tech won time of possession 38.5 to 21.5...which is why those numbers don't strike the eye nice and pretty.

Back by halftime of the late afternoon NFL games with the numbers from the early NFL games. Don't forget to set your clocks back on Sunday. We did it last week for a couple of hours because it seemed overdue. Gave us good practice for this week!

Midday Saturday Stats

2010-11-06T19:36:00.002-05:00

From the midday games, only the BCS conferences, going in rotation order...

BOSTON COLLEGE 23, WAKE FOREST 13
Total Yardage: Boston College 298, Wake Forest 287
Yards-Per-Play: Boston College 5.1, Wake Forest 4.6
Turnovers: Boston College 2, Wake Forest 5
Sloppiness:Boston College 14, Wake Forest 37

Mostly a sloppiness win for BC. Be careful giving them too much credit here. Unless you think they'll force 5 turnovers a game every time out. They may get some undeserved line respect off this win and the ugly one over Clemson.

PENN STATE 35, NORTHWESTERN 21
Total Yardage: Northwestern 369, Penn State 528
Yards-Per-Play: Northwestern 5.4, Penn State 6.6
Turnovers: Northwestern 0, Penn State 1
Sloppiness: Northwestern 9, Penn State 18

Penn State trailed 21-7 at the half, but won the rest of the game 28-0. Big yardage, which is probably more about NW's undersized defense wearing down late in the season than the Nittany Lions suddenly becoming explosive. Though, they did put up a good number vs. Michigan last week. So, let's assumpe Penn State is going to move the ball and score like this vs. bad defenses.

NORTH CAROLINA 37, FLORIDA STATE 35
Total Yardage: North Carolina 473, Florida State 374
Yards-Per-Play: North Carolina 7.0, Florida State 5.5
Turnovers: North Carolina 0, Florida State 0
Sloppiness: North Carolina 11, Florida State 11

FSU was an 11-point favorite, but never really looked like the superior side. Carolina is capable of this every week, but you just can't count ton them to show up. FSU looks like they took the game too lightly. We're going to have some great bowl games this year if everyone in the 11-45 spots in the ratings shows up and tries.

OKLAHOMA STATE 55, BAYLOR 28
Total Yardage: Baylor 464, Oklahoma State 725
Yards-Per-Play: Baylor 5.5, Oklahoma State 8.8
Turnovers: Baylor 3, Oklahoma State 1
Sloppiness: Baylor 33, Oklahoma State 14

Baylor lost yardage stats to Texas last week..and were in a letdown spot here off the historic win. So, the defense was going to be behind the eight-ball in an early start (tough for some teams to get up for early kickoffs when they played a late game the prior Saturday for some reason). Okie State was up 24-0 at the half, and it looked like it should have been more. Garbage time the rest of the way, with 59 points scored in the last two quarters.

KANSAS 52, COLORADO 45
Total Yardage: Colorado 464, Kansas 453
Yards-Per-Play: Colorado 6.2, Kansas 6.3
Turnovers: Colorado 3, Kansas 2
Sloppiness: Colorado 30, Kansas 15

Colorado led 35-10 at halftime...and 42-17 in the fourth quarter. Yes, Kansas scored 35 straight points to win the game! There's probably some example in 100 years of this happening before...but I'd bet the rallying team wasn't this horrible! Colorado's coach is on borrowed time anyway. Maybe Turner Gill bought a second chance for the future with the comeback. Amazing, if largely irrelevant game.

BOISE STATE 42, HAWAII 7
Total Yardage: Hawaii 196, Boise State 737
Yards-Per-Play: Hawaii 3.4, Boise State 9.4
Turnovers: Hawaii 0, Boise State 2
Sloppiness: Hawaii 14, Boise State 17

It would have been worse without the early turnovers! Boise sure wanted to makes sure people didn't forget about them on the day TCU was playing Utah. Hawaii was a popular dog pick for many...but this was a statistical slaughter. You don't see 700 yards often in college games. ANY games for that matter.

OREGON 53, WASHINGTON 16
Total Yardage: Washington 263, Oregon 522
Yards-Per-Play: Washington 4.0, Oregon 5.9
Turnovers: Washington 0, Oregon 0
Sloppiness: Washington 14, Oregon 9

Only 18-6 at the half, which was a stunner because Oregon was a 37-point favorite. They went on to win by 37 anyway. You know a team is good when they can gain 500 yards and win by 37 in their flat outings.

NEBRASKA 31, IOWA STATE 30 in OT
Total Yardage: Nebraska 314, Iowa State 361
Yards-Per-Play: Nebraska 4.9, Iowa State 4.5
Turnovers: Nebraska 2, Iowa State 3
Sloppiness: Nebraska 15, Iowa State 26

Another good midday game in what loked like an ugly ABC regional window. Nebraska was favored by 17, and easily could have lost this one outright. A defensive score helped them build a 24-10 lead. Iowa State rallied to tie it at 24. In overtime, Nebraska scored a TD. Iowa State matched the TD but went for two and the outright win. Didn't work obviously. But, that's not a bad gamble when you've got the inferior athletes and everyone's tired. You don't want to blow the month of November injury/fatigue-wise by letting this game go on forever. You're the dog anyway.

TCU 47, UTAH 7
Total Yardage: TCU 558, Utah 199
Yards-Per-Play:TCU 7.8, Utah 3.8
Turnovers: TCU 1, Utah 4
Sloppiness:TCU 10, Utah 39

Utah was a fraud. Their schedule was so weak that it was hard to know for sure. And, they did post a huge result over Iowa State, that looks even better now. But, that OT opener with Pitt was more of a predictive force here. TCU is a legitimate powerhouse. Pittsburgh isn't. Utah wasn't any better than Pitt. Hence, the obliteration you see above.

CALIFORNIA 20, WASHINGTON STATE 13
Total Yardage: California 383, Washington State 194
Yards-Per-Play:California 5.8, Washington State 3.3
Turnovers: California 2, Washington State 0
Sloppiness:California 22, Washington State 16

Turnovers kept Cal from winning by more than their yardage would have suggested. Cal's playing with a backup QB, and they weren't all that great when the starter was healthy.

LSU 24, ALABAMA 21
Total Yardage: Alabama 325, LSU 433
Yards-Per-Play: Alabama 5.0, LSU 6.7
Turnovers: Alabama 2, LSU 0
Sloppiness: Alabama 23, LSU 6

Big surprise to me, at least in terms of the stats. LSU did bust a very long pass play for a TD, which helped their numbers a good bit. Still, if you take that play out it's pretty much a wash...and Alabama isn't supposed to be washing with LSU. There is some championship moxie in the fact that Alabama lost sloppiness 23-6, YPP 6.7 to 5.0, and yet only lost on the scoreboard by only three. Give LSU credit for holding on...and for keeping the Tide in check offensively most of the day. Two losses for Alabama, so people can quit talking about them bypassing TCU and Boise State with one loss. Auburn gets some breathing room for the SEC West. But, if Auburn loses to Alabama that would still cost them the BCS championship game bid.

All in all...a fun middle of the afternoon!

Might return in a couple of hours to gripe about Texas some more. They're down 17-0 in the second quarter to the Kansas State team that got squashed in the stats by Oklahoma State. Oklahoma is down 12-0 at the half in College Station. South Carolina is down at the break to Arkansas. Some interesting games, so I'll try to come back and run the numbers for at least those three.

Early Saturday Stuff

2010-11-06T15:10:00.003-05:00

In schedule order...

AIR FORCE 42, ARMY 22
Total Yardage: Air Force 401, Army 325
Yards-Per-Play: Air Force 6.7, Army 5.2
Turnovers: Air Force 0, Army 2
Sloppiness: Air Force 4, Army 17

Better team showed edges across the board and pulled away to a blowout win and a cover. Great showing for AF considering they lost a late heartbreaker to Utah last week. Of course, they should get up for the commander-in-chief games. We may see a delayed letdown soon...given the back-to-back big games.

MIAMI OF FLORIDA 26, MARYLAND 20
Total Yardage: Maryland 254, Miami 504
Yards-Per-Play: Maryland 4.7, Miami 6.4
Turnovers: Maryland 1, Miami 2
Sloppiness: Maryland 23, Miami 22

Miami had to score very late to get the win, even with that monster edge in yardage. Sometimes new QB's can move between the 20's but not make the most of all the yardage. Miami ws a 10-point favorite...and the raw stats were more like a 14-20 point victory. Third downs also went big to Miami, with a 9-17 to 3-12 edge.

CLEMSON 14, NC STATE 13
Total Yardage: NC State 277, Clemson 260
Yards-Per-Play: NC State 4.2, Clemson 3.7
Turnovers: NC State 2, Clemson 3
Sloppiness: NC State 25, Clemson 24

Rare defensive struggle in early action. Clemson's offense has just disappeared the last couple of weeks...but they did pull a victory out of the hat even with deficits in YPP and turnovers. Not sure why they were favored by more than a field goal.

DUKE 55, VIRGINIA 48
Total Yardage: Virginia 641, Duke 488
Yards-Per-Play: Virginia 7.3, Duke 6.4
Turnovers: Virginia 3, Duke 1
Sloppiness: Virginia 37, Duke 18

A sloppiness loss for Virginia. Neither of these teams is very good right now. At least they put on a good show for ticket buyers.

LOUISVILLE 28, SYRACUSE 20
Total Yardage: Louisville 303, Syracuse 256
Yards-Per-Play: Louisville 4.7, Syracuse 4.1
Turnovers: Louisville 1, Syracuse 1
Sloppiness: Louisville 17, Syracuse 18

Louisville was one of the most popular dogs of the day with handicappers. You could see why in the numbers. Syracuse has improved, but they're not ready to lay 7 points to anybody, particularly in their league. Louisville won all the stats, and rightfully won the game. So much for the Orange playing in a BCS bowl as Big East champions.

IOWA 18, INDIANA 13
Total Yardage: Iowa 445, Indiana 313
Yards-Per-Play: Iowa 7.2, Indiana 4.5
Turnovers: Iowa 1, Indiana 1
Sloppiness: Iowa 16, Indiana 24

Indiana dropped a TD pass in the end zone in the final moments that would have sprung the upset. Hard to see how it was even close in the numbers. Iowa didn' do much with is advantages, and almost suffered a humiliating loss. Hawkeyes move to 7-2 anyway, but that early loss at Arizona has foreshadowed some lackluster results since.

MICHIGAN 67, ILLINOIS 65 in 3 OT's
Total Yardage: Illinois 561, Michigan 676
Yards-Per-Play: Illinois 6.3, Michigan 7.3
Turnovers: Illinois 1, Michigan 5
Sloppiness: Illinois 16, Michigan 42

The early TV schedule wasn't packed with great matchups, but there ended up being several compelling games. This was a wild one...with both offenses pretty much doing what they wanted all day. Michigan blitzed on a two-point coversion try and took the victory. There's a concept Michigan...pressuring the passer! If not for Michigan sloppiness it looks like this would have been an easier Wolverines win. Note that Robinson was pulled in the 2H with an apparent injury that was never explained. Forcier did fine after an early fumble set up a relatively cheap Illinois TD.

WISCONSIN 34, PURDUE 13
Total Yardage: Wisconsin 303, Purdue 303
Yards-Per-Play: Wisconsin 5.2, Purdue 4.0
Turnovers: Wisconsin 1, Purdue 4
Sloppiness: Wisconsin 11, Purdue 39

Wisconsin actually trailed 10-6 at the half here, scaring Dan Flaherty, Bucky Badger, and Wiscy-nation to death. They did settle the ship and win the rest of the game 28-3. That shows up more in YPP and sloppiness above than total yardage. Survived a potential flat spot, but didn't exactly sparkle. Remember how shorthanded (and bad) Purdue is.

MICHIGAN STATE 31, MINNESOTA 8
Total Yardage: Minnesota 267, Michigan State 320
Yards-Per-Play: Minnesota 4.5, Michigan State 5.2
Turnovers: Minnesota 1, Michigan State 1
Sloppiness: Minnesota 16, Michigan State 16

Not a lot of scoring outside the Michigan game in the Big Ten. Temperaures have cooled way off, with most everything around 40 degrees based on the forecasts. This game stayed Under by 20 points. Wiscy/Purdue had to rally to get close to the number and stayed Under. Iowa/Indiana stayed Under by three TD's. Looks like some adjustment time to the cooler temps.

FLORIDA 55, VANDERBILT 14
Total Yardage: Florida 490, Vanderbilt 110
Yards-Per-Play: Florida 5.6, Vanderbilt 1.7
Turnovers: Florida 2, Vanderbilt 3
Sloppiness: Florida 25, Vanderbilt 32

Man, Vandy's really gotten bad this year. Florida was in a letdown spot off the big Georia win, but led 41-0 by halftime.

Back tonight with mid-afternoon numbers...

Virginia Tech Survives Georgia Tech

2010-11-04T21:59:00.004-05:00

This turned out to be a great game, even with Virginia Tech starting slowly...and Georgia Tech losing its starting quarterback in the second quarter. VT rallied to take a 21-14 fourth quarter lead after falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter. GT managed to drive the field for a TD with their backup, stunning the home crowd. At 21-all, VT returned the kickoff for a TD. GT would then drive the field for a chance to tie, but a pick in the end zone in the final seconds sealted the Hokies victory. (Note that GT had two picks in the end zone on the evening, VT one).

VIRGINIA TECH 28, GEORGIA TECH 21
Total Yardage: Georgia Tech 426, Virginia Tech 335
Yards-Per-Play: Georgia Tech 7.0, Virginia Tech 5.2
Rushing Yards: Georgia Tech 346, Virginia Tech 199
Passing Lines: Georgia Tech 2-10-2-80, Virginia Tech 15-25-1-136
Turnovers: Georgia Tech 2, Virginia Tech 2
Sloppiness: Georgia Tech 18, Virginia Tech 20

The yardage is a bit misleading because GT had the long drive that failed at the end. Yardage was close to even (with a YPP edge still in place for GT) until that late drive...and actually favored VT for awhile because they didn't get a chance to gain any yards with the kickoff return. If you watched, you know it was an evenly played game.

Now...that's a strike against Virginia Tech because:

*They were 12-13 point favorites!

*They had revenge from a big loss to Georgia Tech last year.

*Georgia Tech hadn't been very impressive this year coming in.

*They got to face an inexperienced QB through the whole second half!

The polls had Virginia Tech in the 20's coming in. I've seen some computer projections having them closer to top 10. Sorry...this just isn't that great a team. They can overpower pushovers...but they're vulnerable to non-pushovers. They had to sweat this one...had to rally to beat NC State...lost to Boise State...and even lost to James Madison. You could see tonight how a loss like that could happen up until the final stanza when GT's defense started wearing down from fatigue. Madison hung tough the whole way, caught a few breaks, and showed that VT can be had if you keep your discipline.

This result is bad news for Boise State...though it would have been much worse if Virginia Tech hadn't eked out the victory. Boise basically grades out even with Georgia Tech here. Both games with VT were close late...Boise won on an neutral field. GT lost in Blacksburg. Nobody thinks of Georgia Tech as championship material this year...so Boise loses some luster when you work through the math.

Anyway, back to this one. Virginia Tech's defense acted like they had never seen the option before. Other opponents had been holding GT in check this year. Clemson only allowed 13 points in GT's prior game. So, bad preparation and defensive intensity from the hosts. Neither team knows how to pass when they need to, so you see ugly passing lines for both.

Virginia Tech moves to 7-2, and is 7-0 since that poor start to the season. The Hokies are still favored to win the ACC, though the championship game will be far from easy no matter who they face. Georgia Tech falls to 5-4, but played better than that record would suggest tonight. Remember...these guys lost to horrible Kansas!

Fun way to spend a Thursday Night.

I've decided to go ahead and start up an NBA program since people have been asking about it and I've got 4-5 games worth of stats for most teams now. It will be just like the MLB 5-inning club. We'll mostly be looking at 1Q and 1H action. If you don't have access to those, then this isn't for you. Probably some full game team totals too. We'll see where the soft spots seem to be in the market. Cost is $150 for a month. If fortune doesn't smile on us during that month, the next 30 days will be included at no additional cost.

We're talking mostly nightly action of light plays. Baseball really kicked in when everything was 0.5 stars and we were playing 3-7 plays per night depending on the schedule. That's a good comfort zone for this approach. If you want sure things and locks, this is the wrong place. If you think losing months are impossible, this is the wrong place. If you have the urge to say, "I don't care what makes sense in five different games, give me only the best stuff," then this is the wrong place. If you're going to ask me what my record was last year, two years ago, in all sports, only dogs, what about Unders...this is the wrong place. Past records don't mean anything unless you have about 1,000 samples (as we've discussed in the past but the world seems to keep ignoring). And, evolution in sports happens so quickly that having a good prior run doesn't mean you'll win when the world changes (ask guys caught flat-footed by the end of the steriod era in baseball about that). If you're into applying various gamblers fallacies to what you think handicapping is supposed to be based on what you've imagined the world is like, this is the wrong place.

Yes, my job is to talk you OUT of signing up. The people that got talked out in the past have peace of mind...because it would have driven them crazy playing 11 baseball plays for 0.5 stars each on a night without knowing what the "best play" was. And, any good or bad streak would have lured them into playing mind games with gambler's fallacies.

If I haven't talked you out of it yet, $150 for a month starting Friday November 5th. I may include some college and pro football. But, honestly, I'm just not able to dig deep through the whole card this year as I have in the past for a variety of reasons. NBA daily schedules are more manageable time wise (as is true in MLB), so it hits the sweet spot. And, the market still seems oblivious to many NBA stathead approaches, which was certainly true this last year in the bases 5-inning stuff.

Drop me a note at jefffogle@gmail.com if you're interested.

I won't be able to blog Friday Night because of a family commitment. Will be back mid-afternoon Saturday to run stats from the early college games like we've been doing the last couple of weeks. See you then.

Note, if this is your first visit today, I posted something on the NFL earlier...having some fun with the weak strength of schedules for three of the divisions. A visit to the funhouse awaits...

Funhouse Mirror League

2010-11-04T20:12:00.003-05:00

Last year I spent a lot of time playing around with a "superleague" in the NFL, taking the top 20 teams and seeing what they did against each other. The goal was to weed out performances vs. the large collection of crap teams. Not all teams emphasize projected cakewalks the same way. Some run up the score on lousy opponents. Some get an acceptable lead and race to get the game over with. Since the league had SO MANY crap teams last year, this could very easily create illusions about who was really best in statistical or computer based approaches.

I think this is at the heart of why Football Outsiders kept insisting Baltimore was the best team last year. The Ravens ran up the score on lousy opponents, but had no idea what to do late in a close game against quality. Against the Colts, they couldn't score an offensive TD in two full games. Best team in the league? No way.

This year it's a bit tougher to do that because the schedules are so unbalanced. I'll save an in-depth explanation figuring most of you know that the divisions have rotations regarding when they play each other from year to year. Luck of the draw has three divisions with a lot of mediocre or worse teams playing many games against each other.

Instead of a superleague this year, I'm going to study the Funhouse Mirror League. Warped mirrors are making some teams look a lot better than they really are (imagine a won-lost record swelling up instead of your gut as you stare into one).

The three divisions in the funhouse: AFC West, NFC West, NFC South.

Here are the current won-lost records for the 12 teams in the funhouse, with strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings at USA Today in parenthesis (schedule rankings are out of all 32 teams in the NFL).

Atlanta 5-2 (16th)
Tampa Bay 5-2 (26th)
Kansas City 5-2 (31st)
New Orleans 5-3 (28th)
Seattle 4-3 (29th)
Oakland 4-4 (27th)
St. Louis 4-4 (32nd)
Arizona 3-4 (12th)
San Diego 3-5 (14th)
Denver 2-6 (10th)
San Francisco 2-6 (23rd)
Carolina 1-6 (25th)

You can see that not all 12 teams have played gift schedules so far. Atlanta's right at league average. Arizona, SD, and Denver near the bottom are all a shade or more tougher than average. But, everyone else has had it pretty easy.

So, when you see me talking about somebody being 4-4 against a very easy schedule in the Sunday recaps, this is what I mean. I'll just call them funhouse mirror teams or funhouse teams from this point forward.

In short:

*Atlanta looks legit at 5-2 based on that schedule

*The teams between Atlanta and Arizona on the chart are illusions to one degree or another. All are probably at least one game worse than the standings suggest. I wouldn't argue against two games worse in most cases.

*San Francisco and Carolina are playing even worse than you thought! If that's possible.

If you see people raving about Tampa Bay...or how great Sam Bradford has looked so far for the Rams, or how Kansas City has become a legitimate Super Bowl contender; you're listening to or reading people who don't realize they're looking at funhouse mirrors. And, I must say, there's a depressingly large number of people right now who aren't making this adjustment.

Among the top performances from outside the funhouse:
New England 6-2 (18th)
Pittsburgh 5-2 (3rd, and Ben missed 4 games)
Baltimore 5-2 (8th)
NY Jets 5-2 (15th)
Indianapolis 5-2 (19th)

From the earlier list, Atlanta would qualify here with 5-2 (16th) as legitimate...and we have to assume the second half of their season is going to feature some funhouse games that will make it relatively easy for them to reach the playoffs.

It's halftime of Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech as I type this. Back after the game with a stat snapshot.

Wednesday Night Notes

2010-11-03T22:21:00.003-05:00

I was watching some of the Rutgers/South Florida football game...and the usual negative thoughts about the Big East were jumping into my head. And, I remembered that I was negative about the Big East last week, and I should at least be pleased that the teams were scoring points in the first half. I can't complain about horrible Big East offenses after West Virginia/UCONN, and horrible Big East defenses after Rutgers/South Florida. Looks like I'm just biased towards horrible and making the scores fit my bias.

Then,

*Rutgers jumped offsides defensively three times in the same drive.

*South Florida couldn't cash in that drive for a TD because of a mistimed snap in shotgun formation, followed by the QB running into the running back on a handoff.

*South Florida's defense committed a horse collar tackle (then celebrating the big play like they didn't know it was illegal). A few plays later, they got another 15-yard penalty, this time for taking a helmet off on the field.

I left the room for awhile, and came back for:

*Rutgers on their own 4-yard line...dropping back to pass...and throwing from the end zone to STILL INSIDE THE END ZONE to a covered back who was immediately tackled for a safety. Jeez. Throw the ball at his feet and you don't lose two points.

South Florida would soon take a 28-27 lead and try to run out the clock. While doing so, the QB banged into a RB again and almost fumbled the ball away...then the next play was a mishandled snap from center that could have gone awry.

So...IT'S VERY HARD TO SAY NICE THINGS ABOUT BIG EAST FOOTBALL!

SOUTH FLORIDA 28, RUTGERS 27
Total Yardage: Rutgers 240, South Florida 306
Yards-Per-Play: Rutgers 4.5, South Florida 5.3
Rushing Yards: Rutgers 78, South Florida 157
Turnovers: Rutgers 0, South Florida 1
Sloppiness: Rutgers 3, South Florida 12

Bizzaro stuff in the numbers. Rutgers had an extremely sharp sloppiness score, thanks to 20-23-0-162 passing. Yet, they totalled just 240 yards for the game and only 4.5 YPP. That means they were throwing virtual handoffs all night (like the one in the end zone). That's a lot of points for a game with little yardage. It was close to being a replay of UCONN/WV but with some trickeration and cheap points joining the mix. If you watch a lot of football...the Big East just doesn't measure up to the other BCS conferences. Ugly stuff.

NBA notes from the early finals:

*Atlanta moved to 5-0 with a 9-point win over Detroit. The spread was 10 so it was a non-cover. Both teams were in a b2b spot. They played slow as a result, and the game stayed Under by a good bit. Atlanta shot 62% on two-pionters, and won Imposing of Will 97-110

*Charlotte and New Jersey were in a double hermit game (neither played last night, or will play tomorrow night). I think you see the true character of teams more in these games than when there's a B1 or B2 distraction. Larry Brown wants to play defensive halfcourt game. Avery Johnson doesn't mind that. So, you get an 85-83 final that stays Under a low total by 15 points. The teams were a combined 5 of 36 on treys...suggesting neither is very good at hitting treys out of a set offense. Note that Troy Murphy of the Nets, a starter, had a plus-minus of -17 in only 18 minutes. Bet he's in Avery's doghouse.

*Orlando crushed Minnesota just like Miami did. Same style of game. Minnesota likes running no matter who's on the court...and maybe their defense is so bad that opponents score quickly. Minnesota's tempo's have been 105-101-112-103-102 this year, when something in the 100's is relatively uncommon (the first two games landed on 87 and 89, to give you a sense of what slow means).

*Philadelphia had a HUGE night after overtime blowout over Indiana. Gotta give kudo's to that. Sixers led by 26 at the half, and won Imposing of Will 77-108. Not sure where it came from...but good to see. Sixers may have focused defensively on Granger, who was 2-14 from the field. Note that Indiana was rested while Philly was in a tough night after OT spot. Very impressive win in that light.

*Milwaukee took Boston to overtime in a game that definitely had a playof feel to it. Maybe the Bucks needed to see an Eastern power before the "Fear the Deer" juices started to flow. Very tight game. Both were in a b2b.

*New Orleans beat Houston outright as a 5-point dog in a double hermit game...basically confirming the nice things I've been reading about the Hornets start (I think it was basketball prospectus that noticed some very good things early), and Houston's disappoingint start. New Orleans is 4-0 now, and it wasn't a gift schedule. Houston is 0-4, and has been HORRIBLE in second halves (I think I saw John Kelly point that out today online). Trying to play Yao Ming for only 20-25 minutes per game is very disruptive. He's playing well...but then the team doesn't seem to have a plan for when he's out. Chris Paul had a big game. New Orleans shot 42 free throws to just 18 for the Rockets. You do that on the road, and you EARNED it. Definitely a meaningful result given prior form and the double hermit scenario. Rockets in some trouble. New Orleans has a new coach, new enthusiasm, and a healthy Chris Paul.

Those are the games that have ended as I type this. Going to call it a night. See you Thursday Night after Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech ends for the statistical snapshot. Isn't it funny watching ESPN trying to hype the ABC regional window of Oregon-Washington, Nebraska-Iowa State, Penn State-Northwestern, and North Carolina-Florida State? GOOD LORD the schedule is weak outside of TCU-Utah and Alabama-LSU this Saturday. Maybe Hawaii/Boise will be good.

See you Thursday Night...

Tuesday Night Notes

2010-11-02T22:26:00.003-05:00

Some time to run the NBA numbers tonight. Imposing of Will is a defense and rebounding stat that reflects 2-point shooting percentage allowed...plus rebound percentage allowed. Something in the 80's or 90's is good, because you're preventing two-point scoring and rebounding. Something in the 100's is weak because you're letting the other team push you around.

ATLANTA 100, CLEVELAND 88
Two-Point Shooting: Atlanta 48%, Cleveland 47%
Rebound Percentage: Atlanta 49%, Cleveland 51%
Imposing of Will: Atlanta 98, Cleveland 97
Turnovers: Atlanta 7, Cleveland 14

Not much of an edge in IOW for the Hawks...but their big turnover difference helped push them over the top. Was reading at Basketballprospectus the other day that Atlanta's offense is off to a great start this season in terms of efficiency. I strongly encourage you hoop fans to read their daily recaps. You can get possession totals there too, in addition to hoopdata.com. I'm seeing too many people refer to "fast" and "slow" based on the scoring totals they see rather than actual tempo! Do the work, so you don't type dumb stuff. Hawks have a talented team and a new head coach. That can be a great combination early in the season in the winnable games.

WASHINGTON 116, PHILADELPHIA 115 (in overtime)
Two-Point Shooting: Philadelphia 62%, Washington 47%
Rebound Percentage: Philadelphia 49%, Washington 51%
Imposing of Will: Philadelphia 98, Washington 111
Free Throws: Philadelphia 23 of 39, Washington 36 of 43

Washington got pushed around pretty good, but benefited from a big free throw advantage to vulture a win in overtime in a game matching two bad teams. Doug Collins isn't knocking my socks off so far for the Sixers. They did exploit the soft underbelly of the Wizards here though in a losing effort.

BOSTON 109, DETROIT 86
Two-Point Shooting: Boston 58%, Detroit 48%
Rebound Percentage: Boston 49%, Detroit 51%
Imposing of Will: Boston 99, Detroit 107
Turnovers: Boston 8, Detroit 17

Boston's strong defense showed up more in the turnover category rather than two-point shooting. That's why Detroit could only score 86 points. Many of the top teams brought their lunch pails this evening. Boston can be a team that paces itself for the long haul. So far, you're getting a team that wants to be in the championship discussion right off the bat. Maybe that's Rondo feeling his oats as he continues to mature and play to his talent. Boston's very hard to beat when Rondo is flying around at full health.

MIAMI 129, MINNESOTA 97
Two-Point Shooting: Minnesota 38%, Miami 59%
Rebound Percentage: Minnesota 46%, Miami 54%
Imposing of Will: Minnesota 113, Miami 84

This is basically a best vs. worst game...though Minnesota may not end up being 30th out of 30 teams. This shows you the difference from top to bottom when top is in the mood to play, and bottom pulls its starters midway through the game because there's just no point to even trying! Plus, the T-Wolves have a game Wednesday Night in Orlando. Miami has been on a cover tear since losing the season opener at Boston. We may see some lines in the 20's at some point...if they're going to keep winning by more than 20 every time out!

PORTLAND 90, MILWAUKEE 76
Two-Point Shooting: Portland 55%, Milwaukee 42%
Rebound Percentage: Portland 49%, Milwaukee 51%
Imposing of Will: Portland 93, Milwaukee 104

Good bounce back for Portland after the poor defensive outing in Chicago the prior night. Don't put too much weight on back-to-back's early in the season. Everyone has fresh legs. And, slower teams don't exactly wear themselves out anyway. This was likely to be a slow game given the teams involved too. Portland's covered or pushed every game but that Chicago loss. Good start for a team that keeps finding ways to earn your respect. I've been disappointed with the Bucks to this point. They were fun to root for last year during the "Fear the Deer" stretch.

Here's what I mean about the superior teams coming to work with clear focus tonight:

*Atlanta (-3) led by 13 after one quarter, and 12 at the half on the way to a 12-point win.

*Boston (-6) led by 5 after one quarter, 13 at the half on the way to a 23-point win.

*Miami (-16) led by 6 after one quarter, 16 at the half, on the way to a 32-point win.

*LA Lakers (-9) led by 11 after one quarter, 27 at the half before I went to bed (lol).

Nice to see quality show up and play. If the top teams are going to keep sending messages to each other by way of blowing out other teams on a nightly basis, handicapping is going to be kind of fun. The full game lines turned out to be bad first half lines in three of those four games listed. May have to keep track of what the projected powers are doing when coming off at least one day of rest.

There's a Big East football game Wednesday Night, so I'll be back when it ends for a statistical snapshot. I'll try to have some NFL notes too...